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A Follow-Up To Peter Way's Aug. 25, 2015 Article On SVXY

|Includes: ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY)

Summary

Many have approached Peter's observations and his philosophy with skepticism, as he proposes an Active Investing Management approach.

I along with others shared thoughts in real-time on the proposition that SVXY was poised to make gains

Peter was ultimately proven to be correct, and now the question is, is it time to exit?

Peter's original SVXY article is here. Many comments were along the line of "no one can pick the bottom", but a few who were already warmed up to Peter's approach showed support. Some were convinced it was just a totally bad idea: "Buying into the teeth of such a ferocious downmove is both idiotic and amateurish..." or "This is the biggest bunch of crap ever." and "Now is NOT the time to buy SVXY."

So what actually happened with SVXY since that date? Here's what:

2-Year BTF of SVXY (used with permission)

The red arrow marks the forecast date closest to the article, August 25th. Basically, the Market-Makers telegraphed their future intentions four months in a row, evident in the green range indicators of August 2015 thru December 2015. By April of 2016, SVXY began to appear repeatedly on Blockdesk.com's daily Intelligence Lists:

Forecast
Date

Ticker

Sell
Target
Share
Cost
Close
Date
Close
Price
One
Plus
Days
Held

41316

SVXY $58.10 50.74 52416 58.45 1.152 29

42716

SVXY $65.14 52.89 60616 65.19 1.233 27

52616

SVXY $69.56 61.87 80516 70.05 1.132 49

62316

SVXY $67.87 43.00 80516 70.05 1.629 30

70816

SVXY $62.79 55.20 72816 63.52 1.151 14

71116

SVXY $62.68 56.48 72816 63.52 1.125 13

80216

SVXY $74.25 65.93 90216 76.10 1.154 23

91416

SVXY $72.23 64.28 92116 72.23 1.124 5

91516

SVXY $75.06 65.09 101016 76.43 1.174 17

91916

SVXY $78.33 67.19 102416 80.94 1.205 25

92016

SVXY $78.47 72.23 102416 80.94 1.121 24

103116

SVXY $84.04 69.83 112116 85.17 1.220 15

110116

SVXY $82.08 68.15 112116 85.17 1.250 14

110716

SVXY $84.53 74.35 112116 85.17 1.146 10

121916

SVXY $110.99 96.27 12317 111.85 1.162 22

For those who read the article, keep in mind the title ended with "...And Maybe Again Later" (my emphasis on the word again). Peter wasn't kidding, with SVXY showing up 15 times on his Intelligence Lists during the 2016 calendar year.

For any regular users of Peter's Lists, maybe you were fortunate enough to have picked up a List on one or more of these dates. Peter has told me several times that his forecasts do VERY well on SVXY, and this is another great example of just how well. These positions combined for an average holding time of just over 21 days, and average gain of 19+% per position. I'll leave it to you to finish up with the CAGR.

It shows very clearly why Peter encourages multiple positions over time, even for the same issue. Where will SVXY go from here? 105 may be within reach...

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.