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The Fed Will Not Raise Rates This Year

Summary

The 2 year treasury yield is a leading indicator for the fed funds rate and is pointing down lately.

The Fed is likely to pause rate hikes.

The 2 year yield has come down sharply in December 2018. As a leading indicator, this means that the Fed Funds Rate will likely not be raised this year.

It is important to keep monitoring this 2 year yield and see where it goes. If it goes lower, it's time to prepare yourself for the end of QT.