Note: This is purely speculative, which is why I am posting an Instablog and not writing a full article.
I believe today's trading activity in $BBRY is completely irrational and misses the bigger point of what is really going on here. We know that Blackberry is trying to sell itself. Part of that process requires access to "the books." Most of the current information (i.e. this quarter's results), which is VERY important to buyout firms, and they are looking at, is non-public information.
In order to act on non-public information, firms or individuals need to persuade the company to make information public. Blackberry made the extra effort today to make this information public.
The entire reason that (I believe) Blackberry made this announcement was to clear the way for a few funds (or individuals) to purchase stock on the open market while having insider information. In this case, the insider information was 'bad news,' but it was still legally "insider info."
Now that BBRY has plummeted even further, I expect massive buying from a few key parties (I have no idea who they might be) over the next 1-3 weeks.
I have previously shared my firm belief in a $BBRY takeover for $15-$20 either late fall or early spring 2014. I recently sold all of my BBRY in the $10-$12 range and have staked my entire position 50% on cash and 50% in $12 March 14 calls. I will probably buy some $10 June 14 calls if the stock price persists next week.
I expect that certain parties will begin increasing their share of BBRY stock prior to making their first bid. If the market continues to value $BBRY stock at these (single-digit) levels, the first bid might be as low as $12. Regardless, I still see a final close at $15-$20, if not higher.
Please keep in mind this is 100% speculative. I do NOT recommend any positions based on these observations, or anything else for that matter. I just want to share my thoughts in a public forum while the news is fresh.
Disclosure: I am long BBRY.
Additional disclosure: I am long BBRY via $12 March 2014 calls. I may add to my position or alter my position in any way at any time.