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Blow-Off Bull Update...Nail biting decision expected soon...

|Includes: QQQ, VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

Nothing has changed with the intermediate term trend, with the stock indexes continuing to hold support as the bulls attempt to hold the rally into end of month and quarter. All bullish bets are off if current support is breached, though so far so good in that regards. Unfortunately, the semis (SMH) and NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) are showing little technical signs they are about to go on the breakout run that is needed to nix the very dangerous set-up we face as we start the second quarter next week.

I use the short term trading indicators shown in the chart below to help prune positions in my portfolios, with the current set-up showing little in the way of new information we can trade off of. The last trade - the new buy marked by the yellow circle far right top portion of chart - worked well, as the movement out of higher beta stocks into more conservative lower beta ones highlighted an extreme oversold condition in the short term last week.

That trade has run its course, and all of these overbought/oversold contrarian indicators remain in the waffling middle, which is the same situation with the VIX and McCellan lines moving around Bollinger band extremes (bottom portion of chart.) While the McCellan did move closer to the new buy line a few days ago, it has since moved back toward the waffling middle without triggering a new trade.

So we await the bull/bear decision where either current support gets taken out and the bulls all try to exit at the same time - can we say, swoon! - or the Qs and SMH catch a bid and the bears panic buy to give the blow-off one final surge 10-20% higher than current level.


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Disclosure: I am long QLD, SMH.