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TAM's Morning Cup of Jo: June 28, 2011

|Includes: QQQ, SMH, SOX, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

“Nothing relieves and ventilates the mind like a resolution.”
– John Burroughs
Lack of technical clarity appears to be the mantra heading into quarter end. With the sisters facing a 5% down month the volatility will be nothing short of exciting for the last few days. As the SPX seems to be still stuck within the topside of a downward sloping Andrew’s Pitchfork the NDX is in the midst of completing a bearish flag at the end of a 6 month double top.
NDX Daily

 Once the flag is resolved, sentiment will become more defined. 2,270 is the number to watch for the top of the Bear Flag. The bottom trend of the flag is around the 2,220 level but would only be confirmed if the neckline since Nov of last year (Double Top) gave way (~2,185). Today we turn to a secondary index for further insight – the SOX (represented by the SMH).
SMH Daily

As you can plainly see it’s somewhat similar in build and potentially just as disturbing to the Bulls. The neckline here is around $32. If this gives way the bulls’ biggest concern should be the lack of support beneath; sitting on a preverbal air cushion.   Again, expect whipsaw action and know the levels where the battle lines are drawn.
As always, Keep your Wits about you and Stay Tuned!