Growth in nonfarm payrolls peaked in January 2015 at 2.3%. In January 2017 it was 1.4%. This is a coincident indicator.
Workers’ real wages
Growth of workers’ wages per hour — wages of production and non-supervisory workers (85% of all workers) minus the CPI — peaked in January 2015 at 2.3%. In December (the last month available) it was 0.3%. It was probably roughly the same in January (hourly wages were unchanged).
Commercial and Industrial Loans
Growth in Commercial and Industrial Loans by banks peaked in January 2015 at 13.5%. It was +1.1% in January. The largest drop was from January 11, 2018 to March 8. This is a lagging indicator.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Improvement in this measure of consumer sentiment peaked in January 2015 at +20%. In January it was –2%. It is a leading indicator.
Average weekly hours
Growth in average weekly hours of production and non-supervisory workers peaked in January – February 2015 at 1%. In January it was –0.5%.
Growth in new permits for private housing units peaked in June 2015. This is a leading indicator.
The supply of money
M2 consists of M1 (cash and checking account) plus savings accounts, money market accounts, and small-denomination time deposits (less than $100,000). This is a leading indicator.
The OECD Leading Indicators look strong!
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the US peaked in July – August 2014 at 101.0. It was 99.9 in November 2018. The CLI for the full OECD has followed the same path. Note: unlike the other graphs, this shows the absolute value of the CLI (not the YoY change).
Some leading indicators continue to rise
The big story: Durable goods.
Growth in new orders for durable goods are accelerating, after lagging throughout the expansion.
For More Information
Ideas! For shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
- Ignore the skeptics. America can still grow.
- Today’s mythbusting: the Fed is not suppressing interest rates.
- Did anyone predict the 2008 crash? Will anyone predict the next crash?
- WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future.
- See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better.
- Trump’s Tax Cuts Won’t Offset the Impending Slowdown.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.