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Currency Pairs In Focus - Current Outlook

Currency pair

Near-term Outlook



USD/JPY has again found resistance by 200-day moving average. The recent low did not test the previous low and a head and shoulder pattern seems to be forming on daily chart. Support is expected at or over 97.80 and if that holds then a break of 200-day moving average resistance is expected. Such a move should bring further gains towards 99.38 to 99.67 resistance zone.


1.3461 was the low of recent sideways move and hence a support level from where the pair had jumped to 1.3803. The recent break of 55-day EMA and this support has brought short-term bearish outlook. If resistance below 1.3524 holds then further consolidation may come towards 1.3340 to 1.3389 support zone. A break above 1.3524 may bring some more gains towards 1.3565.


USD/CAD is in a volatile sideways mode on daily chart. The weekly chart still has uptrend but the momentum is losing. Resistance near 1.0495 is critical. If this resistance holds and any break below 1.0398 support takes place then further drop towards 1.0320 to 1.0360 support zone can be expected.


The pair has been continuously finding support at 55-day EMA. This support combined with the fact that AUD/JPY had completed the 61.8% retracement of the strong upward gains from 74.47 to 105.43 indicate that we can see some further gains in the coming days. The support at 92.66 is critical for this outlook. Any break below 92.66 may bring further fall towards the support zone of 91.40 to 91.80.


We expect resistance near 1.6120 and if that resistance holds then we will expect GBP/USD to fall towards 1.5894 to 1.5905 support zone. The support at 1.5894 is critical and any break below that should bring deeper consolidations towards 1.5740 or more.


EUR/GBP had failed just below 61.8% retracement of the fall from 0.8769 to 0.8332. Further downward move towards the first support in the range of 0.8374 to 0.8378 is expected. If this support fails then a retest of 0.8332 support will be expected. 0.8332 support is very critical and in case that does not hold then deeper decline towards 0.8225 or more may come.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.