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Intel (INTC) To Rally Much Higher?

Apr. 21, 2011 8:05 AM ETINTC
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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2011

Serge Berger is the founder of the renowned www.TheSteadyTrader.com and the Head Trader at Blue Oak Advisors LLC. During his career, Serge he has been a financial analyst, dealt in fixed income instruments at JP Morgan, and was a proprietary trader in equity options and futures.
After yesterday's large rally in INTC, the semiconductor complex almost completely destroyed a very bearish chart pattern in many semiconductor stocks, as well as in the SMH ETF.  

The point here is not so much to look into the details of the daily chart but noticing how hard INTC bounced off the $19 area, which also coincided with the low-end of the longer-term narrowing trading range.  The stock is now right back in the middle of this trading range and will find next resistance at $22.  On a break above 22 on a weekly chart I will consider initiating a long position.  

Charts are just one necessariy items to study and as such the seasonality factor (late spring – late summer weak for stocks) as well as the cyclicality of stocks (I think we are nearing a top in this bull market) give me many reasons to believe that INTC will have a very difficult time catapulting itself above $22 for an extended period of time.

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