Archives have name of poster & date at the top of each, and the date & time stamp at the bottom of each post. These are prior posts from the dates indicated. To search the posts for particular data or companies use control-F on PCs and command-F on Macs.
For current news posts, links to other Mongolia-related pages, and current author disclosures, please go to Mongolia Weekly Update.
February 12, 2012. A day earlier than normal. However, tomorrow's a busy day.
Here is the news with a bit more commentary from me than normal.
1) An article by me on the 1st day of the general conference of Coal Mongolia 2012. Discusses Peabody (BTU), Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE) in Mongolia. Please note this article does not remotely cover everything from the 1st day at Coal Mongolia (which I'll blog about as soon as I have time), but only covers the representation of the American Fortune 500 companies on the 1st day (something that was indicated in the original title, but was changed). http://seekingalpha.co...
2) More on the Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) investment in TDB bank, albeit without mention that Paul Anka sang at the party celebrating the investment Thursday night (no, I was not invited).
a) Reuters: http://reut.rs/wW6go4
b) FT: http://on.ft.com/xJunt1
c) Hogan Lovells (the law firm that was advisor on the deal) press release:http://bit.ly/wHQhup
3) Mongolia Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK) (0975.HK), Coal Mongolia, and railway infrastructure issues. This article is a good summary of one session at Coal Mongolia dealing with the hold-ups in developing rail infrastructure. Key paragraph, "The government remains reluctant to give permission for Mongolian Mining Corp (MMC) to construct its own 267-km private railway into China, saying a pre-existing route into China would make it more difficult to attract financing for the route east into Russia. An MMC official told Reuters the company was "still waiting" for the project to be approved." [My comments. Bottom line 1, too many business interests in government is leading to bad business practices and blocking MMC from doing what would be most efficient not only for the market, but for government tax revenues, as well as developing infrastructure for the government's massive Tavan Tolgoi deposit rapidly and cost effectively. Bottom line 2, while #1 is the bigger problem, there is the sub-issue that Russia owns 50% of Mongolian Railways which, at times, seriously hinders the effective development of the Mongolian infrastructure.] http://bit.ly/AjEmpz
4) Sticking with Mongolia Mining Corp (MOGLF.PK) (0975.HK).
a) Goldman Sachs trimmed the target on their buy rating on the company.http://bit.ly/xMpI3m
b) operations have begun at Baruun Naan http://bit.ly/ycnIGv as the company announced February 2, 2012, http://bit.ly/zTm2M0
5) Aspire Mining (APSXF.PK) (AKM.AX). Nice 12 page analyst report by Bell Potter on the company (Thanks to Mogi at CPS for the link). http://bit.ly/xMpI3m
7) FLSmidth & Co (OTC:FLIDF) links up privately held Mongolyn Alt [MAK] for a greenfield cement plant on the heels of its December agreement Mongolyn Alt for a greenfield copper concentrator. Mongolyn Alt, along with Mongolia Mining Corp parent MCS, is among the top 5 companies in Mongolia. Good news for the Danish firm. http://reut.rs/wCioxr
8) Prophecy Coal (OTCPK:PRPCF) (PCY.V) has a new article on their website with a lot of data titled, "Ethical Coal: Mongolia's Sparkling Potential Amidst Regional Energy Demand" Good macro detail on Mongolia and its relationship to China.http://bit.ly/yU6xxB
(Two items not in the report which I'll discuss with management to put them into perspective later this week: a) a 450 MW power plant is planned for Ulan Bator in the next few years; b) a 600 MW plant is planned to be built by privately held and well connected Tsetsens 117 km SE of Ulan Bator - albeit they're only starting mining operations in 2Q2012 - well connected meaning they're related to Bodi Group.)
9) More Prophecy. Prophecy Coal Aims to Complete Power Plant Project Financing And Selection Of EPC Firm By 2Q2012. http://bit.ly/w4pi8I
10) Kincora Copper (OTC:BZDLF) (KCC.V) is discussed quite a bit in this article about how Rio Tinto's (RIO) takeover of a majority stake in Ivanhoe (IVN) is welcomed by junior miners. http://bit.ly/ykOra3
11) Marubeni (OTCPK:MARUY) (OTCPK:MARUF) and Winsway (1733.HK). Further update on major transaction. Entry into a Joint Venture with Marubeni Corporation to Acquire the entire issued share capital of Grande Cache Coal Corporation .http://bit.ly/zjQ5jb
13) Draig (DRG.AX):
a) sees more coal in its future. http://bit.ly/wwIPdI
b) Proactive Investors: http://bit.ly/zaBWLy
c) company broadcast interview on geophysical survey identifies priority coal targets (5 min): http://bit.ly/xkqNrb
15) Travis Hamilton of Khan Mongolia Equity Fund in a TV interview on the BBC:http://bbc.in/yWX5n4
17) Leverage China By Investing In Mongolia says Joseph Harned right here on Seeking Alpha. Thanks to Joseph for the plug. Good work. http://seekingalpha.co...
18) Per capita GDP. A conservative estimate by a parliamentarian of what per capita GDP will be in 2013 cites U.S. $10,000. The article doesn't mention that per capita GDP isn't even $5,000 yet right now. (yes, conservatively speaking, per capita GDP will more than double by year-end 2013) http://bit.ly/xqIVw3
19) World Economic Forum suggest tax transparency is key. ""The case studies and recommendations will help countries such as ours develop our mineral resources in a fair and responsible manner for all stakeholders," said Mongolian President Tsakhia Elbegdorj in the report." http://bit.ly/xKDqxr
20) UB Post reports speakers at Coal Mongolia think "Mongolia will be the success story in Asia in the coming decade." On the one hand, I agree. On the other hand, what else would they say at an investing conference in Mongolia? http://bit.ly/zGf3AZ
21) The Democrat Party caucus postponed discussion of what to do with Erdenes MGL Tavan Tolgoi shares on Friday. In other news, these discussions caused the speech schedule at Coal Mongolia to be rearranged as multiple participants were held up in parliament for discussions that went nowhere. [I believe the IPO for Erdenes MGL Tavan Togloi will not be before 4Q2012, and more likely not until summer 2013. I'll explain in detail when I have time to blog at greater length; but there are too many hurdles in the way to the IPO occurring by May 2012, before the elections, as publicly planned. My bet is to watch for an announcement by the National Security Council that it is not in the best interests of the country to proceed with the IPO at this time, as it has been the NSC that bails out the government from promises it does not want to, or cannot, keep. Over/under for NSC announcement is April 2012.] Article referenced: http://bit.ly/yx0xCB
22) More infrastructure - roads. This article discusses development of paved roads in the country. At Coal Mongolia, a presenter cited that approximately 5% of the country's roads are paved. http://bit.ly/zdztLG
23) Coal. 175 billion tons of coal in Mongolia say Coal Mongolia. http://bit.ly/AiBqqV
24) Article believing coking coal is going to be in over-supply, and that coking coal prices will come down, as Australia comes back into the fold after the floods from last year. [yet, geography and demand favors Mongolia, but lack of infrastructure (RAILWAYS!) hurts the profitability of Mongolian coking coal producers.]http://bit.ly/yvNH3M
25) The thoughtful Jargalsaihan discusses "Do We Really Need Foreign Capital?"http://bit.ly/yEBe9S-
a) Heart of China Bull Beats Strong by Frank Homes at Financial Sense:http://bit.ly/zL77cM
b) but Bloomberg has growth concerns http://bloom.bg/wYeQCK
c) even though stocks have 4th consecutive week of gains http://bloom.bg/yXzYub
d) China Risks 4-Point Growth-Rate Cut in Case of Europe Worsening: Economy
27) IMF regional man Steven Barnett worries about Mongolia overheating (note: IMF only has a rep office left in Mongolia as IMF was asked to leave Mongolia in 2011; thus regional man who gives out quotes for the IMF is based in China)
28) However, Mongol Bank publishes Mr. Barnett's concerns about Mongolia's country risk at full length here: http://bit.ly/AhwyhZ
29) Moody's says the risk to local Mongolian banks from a commodities downturn is "low." http://bit.ly/zhJHxk-'least-exposed'-to-eu...
31) Gobi farmers' water concerns. http://bit.ly/yLvgzm
32) Long articles by Aubrey Belford at The Global Mail on Mongolia. I have heard some criticisms of these articles but I simply don't have the time to read them currently and cannot comment one way or the other.
33) Former Chicago Bull Scottie Pippen will be in Mongolia in April 2012.http://bit.ly/zhPi5D
34) For your Mongolia moment of investing peace, you don't have to be working for TDB or Goldman Sachs to visit Paul Anka .com, sing along with Paul here:http://paulanka.com
12 Feb, 06:30 AMReplyDelete CommentLike5
Here's an in-depth interview with Mongolian coal producer SouthGobi Resources-- Interview with the CEO. This company will be exporting 10mm metric tonnes of coking coal to China within 3 years, making it a top 15 producer of coking coal in the world. Please read! Thanks.
15 Feb, 05:05 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4
Please note that Peter Epstein is a paid consultant for SouthGobi.
SouthGobi has chosen not to meet with me, both this past September 2011 and during my current 18 day trip here in February 2012.
17 Feb, 11:39 AMReplyDelete CommentLike6
An SA reader in other blogs has inquired about "funds" to invest in Mongolia.
My lengthy reply:
There are some equity funds that invest in Mongolia. I have listed a few on my Mongolia blog (that's here)
However, all of the funds you can invest into Mongolia with currently are limited to accredited investors with investment minimums of $10,000 or higher.
Van Eck has filed with SEC for a Mongolia ETF, and Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton is waiting to invest in Mongolia as well. But, they cannot, yet. The Mongolia Stock Exchange is working with the London Stock Exchange to revise its governance currently. This is a lengthy process, but until governance is sufficiently revised and there is a system in place for custodian relationships, Van Eck, Mark Mobius, and others waiting, cannot - under the guidelines of their companies - create vehicles to invest in the Mongolia Stock Exchange.
Funds that invest in Mongolia but do not capture the Mongolia Stock Exchange tend to not capture the true growth of the economy. For example, Quam has a fund that invests in stocks listed outside of Mongolia that invest in Mongolia, and it has over 40% invested in Ivanhoe, and over 60% invested in its top two holdings (IVN and MOGLF.PK).
The Mongolia Financial Regulatory Commission and Mongolia Stock Exchange should get everything fixed by mid-2013 (although their goal was to complete most of the reforms by year-end 2011; and I am willing to hold out hope they can complete the necessary changes for Mobius, Van Eck, et al, by mid-2012).
15 Feb, 06:21 PMReplyDelete CommentLike5
With apologies, this week's posting is delayed. Author is too busy meeting with people in Mongolia to survey the news of the week about Mongolia and post it.
Please note that this week is Tsagaan Sar (the Lunar New Year, and also the Mongolia New Year celebration). Offices, stock exchange, etc., here will close mid-day Tuesday (21 February) and not reopen until Monday (27 February).
Also, offices here were open this past Saturday in exchange for being closed this coming Friday. However, at least half of Saturday in all offices was dedicated to cleaning as an important part of Tsagaan Sar is thoroughly cleaning everything (home, office, etc) in order to start off the new year with a clean slate, so to speak. My wife is advocating that I continue this tradition, albeit a few days behind schedule, when I head home on Saturday.
Thank you for your patience.
19 Feb, 08:38 PMReplyDelete CommentLike5
With further apologies, there may not be an update until next week. I have lost my computer as of this evening and my computer access will be limited until I get back to the U.S. and get a new computer.
20 Feb, 09:57 AMReplyDelete CommentLike4
YIKES! Offer a reward?
Sorry to hear about that.
20 Feb, 10:11 AMReplyDelete CommentLike4
I hate theives. I hope you are fortunate and someone returns it to you.
20 Feb, 10:30 AMReplyDelete CommentLike3
Unlikely. It was an organized group. I tend to stand out here because of my bushy beard. Sometimes a good thing, sometimes not so much.
Thank you 'Gades for turning up straight away with good thoughts. Its almost midnight here and I need to go to bed. In the end, no one's health was harmed, its okay.
Thanks a lot for the thoughts :-)
20 Feb, 10:42 AMReplyDelete CommentLike4
Argh!!! I hope you didn't lose too much information. I was told to always carry my laptop in front and not behind. There were several occasions where I did leave the laptop lying around when taking a restroom break at the cafe. I think I will be taking my laptop to the restroom from now on.
Last week, an expat told me how he was bumped into on the street and simultaneously someone from behind unzipped his backpack and took out his laptop. Be extra careful with your wallet and laptop when in UB.
20 Feb, 10:45 AMReplyDelete CommentLike3
I hope this situation has a happy ending.
20 Feb, 02:06 PMReplyDelete CommentLike2
What Keith/Haiguike described above (the bumping in the front and unzipping behind) is exactly what happened.
The happy ending is I'm fine and the computer is replaceable.
Although most offices closed at mid-day today, I managed to have enough meetings today to fill my day and miss lunch. Last meeting finished at 5:45pm. I walked out and the streets are almost empty. Must now go scrounge up one of the few places serving food and get to bed early. Tomorrow, I've been invited by a local for Tsagaan Sar...
I'll miss the sunrise event... which involves climbing a mountain to be at its peak at sunrise and greet the new year (there's more - I'm learning). Then, we meet at 8:30 a.m. The day is to include a lot of mutton, dumpings, and vodka.
Again, thank you all for the kind notes.
21 Feb, 06:07 AMReplyDelete CommentLike4
Jon, great to hear that you have been invited by a local Mongolian to celebrate Tsagaan Sar. Be sure to eat lots of mutton and buuz and drink plenty of vodka!
21 Feb, 06:38 AMReplyDelete CommentLike3
My 2 cents...just a lurker...learning after a heads up from mayascribe...
A Battle for Mongolia's Copper Lode
22 Feb, 02:39 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4
February 24, 2012, first foray to catch up (more to come)
The lightly skipping around update working with a slow connection on a hotel computer after drinking a bit of vodka to celebrate Tsagaan Sar this afternoon.
Thanks to magounsq for posting the above link and others for sending me links, and to all for your patience.
1) CEO of Mongolia Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK) (0975.HK) points out rail infrastructure development is critical for the country
b) related note: development of rail infrastructure has further delays (going to be tough to get it in gear before the June elections) http://reut.rs/wg5zxW
2) Voyager Resources (OTC:VOYRF) (VOR.AX) has a new research report by Foster Stockbroking. I can't get a link to work. Google "Foster Stockbroking Voyager Resources" and click on the PDF file located at http://bit.ly/zqBUEk
5) Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO). Absolutely great article for one having a positive take on Mongolia, yet an absolutely dumb article for suggesting you can capture Mongolia's growth by investing in Rio Tinto. (This would be like suggesting you can capture American GDP growth by investing in Coca-Cola; completely ignorant of everywhere else in the world they consume Coca-Cola products) http://bit.ly/zVrkts
6) Nova Resources (NOVA.L) raises money and issues shares http://bit.ly/yyE81G
7) Prospectus for Eumeralla Resources IPO in Australia (this would be the tungsten company from the Garrison Capital/CPS Securities stable of Mongolia stocks that includes Hunnu (coal, sold to Banpu), Haranga (iron ore), Voyager Resources (copper-gold), and Wolf Petroleum (IPO coming up as well)) http://bit.ly/wys8za
8) Erdenes MGL Tavan Tolgoi (the BIG Tavan Tolgoi; aka Tavan Tolgoi East) has a wee little problem that is the government's problem as well (as the company is, after all, currently state-owned). It seems Chinalco (ACH). There was a long-term agreement signed before for Big TT to deliver coal to ACH and ACH gave an advance of $250 million. ACH seems to want to cancel the deal now which means the $250 million advance the Mongolia government has spent quite a bit of already may be wanted returned as well. (Mind you, this could also be an item related to the bidding on the West Tsankhi deposit of Big TT (aka Tavan Tolgoi West) and how much of a part of it a Chinese company will get.) http://bit.ly/ymrrTm
9) Parliament ratified amendment to the Erdenes MGL Tavan Tolgoi (the BIG Tavan Tolgoi) protocol. Citizen shares distributed doubled to 1,072. Citizens have the option to sell the shares back to the government for 1 million Mongolian Tugrik. Unmentioned in the article and more important, the government seems to have abandoned having a lock-up period on the shares and/or sufficient education that would avoid the opportunistic consolidation of these shares. http://bit.ly/yY5327
10) More Big TT (Tavan Tolgoi East). An interview with the CEO http://bit.ly/z884sb
11) UB Post discusses that infrastructure may be a major stumbling block and mentions that it was key point of discussion at Coal Mongolia. To clarify, every single Q & A session at Coal Mongolia had at least one question about when the rail infrastructure was going to get done (during one session, there were four rail-related questions in a row). http://bit.ly/zrgxpt-
12) The FT worries that Mongolia has a credit crunch http://on.ft.com/wVIKS7
13) Mongolia and Kazakhstan to rescue the world (or, at least, Germany) from China's dominance of the rare earths sector. (While I can't tell you the first thing about the rare earths sector in Kazakhstan, a few notes about rare earths in the nation of Mongolia: a) some of them are covered by the uranium law of 2009 - see my article on uranium in Mongolia to understand that complication; b) molybdenum is the only rare earth that I know of that has been found in quantities ( Molyworld - part owned by Origo and privately held - should have quite a good deposit of this; c) knowing the infrastructure battles of Molycorp (MCP) and Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF) in other lands, and knowing the infrastructure issues in Mongolia, the development of the rare earth sector in Mongolia is likely 10 to 20 years away)
Full Article: http://bit.ly/wQ5tjq
Merkel signs agreement with Kazakhstan (did the same in the last few months with Mongolia): http://nyti.ms/A2GCQ3
14) China's Inner Mongolia (Inner Mongolia is part of China. Mongolia, the country is "Outer Mongolia")
a) is to curb its coal production to below a billion tons by 2015 http://bit.ly/z6bwD8
b) is to have hundreds of mining projects halted http://bit.ly/w8TkEF
15) Bilateral ties with Kuwait continue to grow (consider Kuwait ahs already have been given a valley south of Ulaanbaatar to set up a falconry institute; mind you, Kuwait paid for a few things to earn that valley): http://bit.ly/w7VtV6
16) Local TV station airs show about government corruption, then faces defamation charges http://bit.ly/w1zcji
17) Hogan Lovells and Sullivan & Cromwell have advised Goldman Sachs on its purchase of a 4.8% equity stake in the Trade & Development Bank of Mongolia.http://bit.ly/wnMD6i
More to come later as I can…
24 Feb, 06:29 AMReplyDelete CommentLike8
12. Sounds like a great time to get into the loan business for SMEs and retail for high yield returns.
For banking in Mongolia, If you have adequate volume (varies from bank to bank), you can get a fixed demand deposit interest rate at 0.6% monthly with no problems. If you are a great negotiator, you can even possibly get up to 0.8%. If you don't mind locking up your capital for 6-month intervals, you can opt for 16% annual CDs. For businesses that need flexible cash flow, 0.6% monthly is a great deal.
14. Even more bullish for Mongolia's coking coal.
16. Let's hope the TV station wins. It would be one step forward for all of Mongolia.
24 Feb, 10:52 AMReplyDelete CommentLike6
February 26, 2012
Continuing the catch-up on my new computer in the U.S. - with a computer mouse that has up/down reversed.
Please read items 30 & 31 to get a little insight into some important players in this June's elections.
18) Mongolia Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK) (0975.HK) completes its second of a planned three coal handling and processing plants. This doubles processing capacity from 5 mtpa to 10 mtpa. (the third will bring it up to 15mtpa) http://bit.ly/yrPVXU
19) Prophecy Coal (OTCPK:PRPCF) (PCY.V). Please note this company is up-listing Monday (February 27, 2012), bell-ringing and party and all. Meanwhile, Eurasia Capital issues a buy rating. http://bit.ly/ztEygC
21) Voyager Resources (OTC:VOYRF) (VOR.AX). Another way to get the research report from Foster Stockbroking. This link is a list of all their research reports. Voyager's reports was on 14-Feb-2002. http://bit.ly/ydwJ6J
22) Mogul Ventures. Capitalist Exploits does a three-part interview with Jamul Jadamba. His Mogul Ventures plans to IPO later this year. Jamul is very sharp and gives insightful interviews.
Part one: http://bit.ly/zbIkIE
Part two: http://bit.ly/zuEFsj
Part three: http://bit.ly/x59emm
Mogul Ventures website (where you can register interest in the IPO):http://www.mogulvc.com
23) Nova Resources (NOVA.L)
a) announces the acquisition of the remaining shares of Nova Mongolia Corphttp://bit.ly/w0hBmq
b) announces commencement of coal transportation contract with ZHCH Mining LLC and Transgobi LLC http://bit.ly/xFkbH1
24) Mongolia Resource Corporation (MUB.AX) talks about their plan of action for 2012 (http://bit.ly/weXjWB
25) Bold Resources Limited ("Bold Resources") - February 17 - is pleased to announce two key appointments to its Board of Directors as it prepares for a potential listing on the Australian Stock Exchange. Enkhbayar ("Eric") Ochirbal has been appointed to the role of Managing Director and Andrew Scrymgeour has been appointed to the role of Non-Executive Director. Bold Resources is an Australian public company that has been incorporated to acquire and develop potential mineral deposits in Mongolia. Bold Resources and its advisor IARUDI LLC ("IARUDI") are currently working with a local Mongolian natural resources company, Mega Mines Mongolia ("MMM"), to complete the acquisition of its Mongolian subsidiary BRX LLC, which owns 100% of four projects in Mongolia located in strategic coal regions, as well as an option to acquire a potential anthracite asset… Bold Resources is an Australian public company that has been incorporated to acquire and develop potential mineral deposits in Mongolia (no link)
26) Eurasia Capital brokerage has issued its Mongolia Outlook 2012 report. The link is to the summary as the 80-page report is for clients only. The summary anticipates 30% growth in the Mongolia Stock Exchange by year-end (which would be quite the follow-up year for the MSE which has been among the top 5 performing stock markets for the past two years already): http://bit.ly/wZdUZ9
27) Mongolia National Securities Office January 2012 update: http://bit.ly/zjMi8n
28) 31.2% of Mongolia's exports were coal last year. http://bit.ly/wN6qbn
29) Mongolia's banking sector expanded 50.1% in 2011 and other notes on the banking sector from Eurasia Capital brokerage: http://bit.ly/yZc5lB
30) Five political parties outside of the two major ones (the MPP and DP) sign a memorandum of understanding. Most notably this group includes MPRP Chairman N.Enkhbayar, a former Prime Minister (2000 to 2004), Speaker of Parliament (2004 to 2005), and President (2005 to 2009). Views on what Mr. Enkhbayar will do if he regains political power vary wildly.
Enkhbyar's Wikipedia page: http://bit.ly/wm1aGP
31) Another 'is it a boon or a curse' article about mining in Mongolia that has a short video embedded which has Battulga Khaltmaa at the end of the video. Along with Enkhbayar (see last item), Battulga is the other politician to watch in this election (to the point that the gossip of the paranoid is that Enkhbayar and Battulga will join forces in the June elections). Battulga's company Genco is responsible for building the massive Chinggis Khan statue an hour east of Ulaanbaatar featured at the start of the video. Battulga is the former Minister of Roads and Transportation (who only left office recently when the DP left the government) and in that capacity was the leading campaigner for the current national railway project (or more relevantly, the leading blocker of private companies building their own rail connections to China because it might create "a 100 umbilical chords to China"). Here's the article and video that inspired this tangent: http://bit.ly/A4janm
32) Very well-produced anti-mining video in the Gobi (The video is by CEE Bankwatch, a group partially funded by the European Union. The mine featured in the video is Ukhaa Khudag, Mongolia Mining Corporation's (MOGLF.PK) main coal mine (located next to the Tavan Tolgoi deposit). The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, the development bank funded by the European Union, has a 3.2% stake in Mongolia Mining Corporation and a seat on its board of directors). Video:http://bit.ly/xXQgEJ
34) Not well-researched piece on Mongolia in the New York Times "Green blog". Anyone who cites Tsetsegee Munkhbayar as a leader in resisting mining in Mongolia has not spent time talking to Mongolian people and is just copying prior western media coverage of Mongolia without doing work (this goes for the Economist, Bloomberg, Financial Times and the rest of the western media that keeps harping on Munkhbayar's movement when even like-minded people in Mongolia do not follow him and think he is, and I quote, "a crazy man") http://nyti.ms/x76Qrx
[oops… thought I was done… but there's more…]
35) Reuters articles on rail infrastructure delays http://reut.rs/wyaMf7
36) Frontier Securities 9 page report on risks of government's new Tavan Tolgoi planhttp://tinyurl.com/75k...
37) Oxford Business Group will have a release party for their country report on Mongolia this Friday, March 2. The report costs 85 British pounds. Ad prices in the book reportedly range between $10,000 and $40,000. http://bit.ly/ys5oXR
38) An interview with Travis Hamilton of the Khan Mongolia Equity Fund is forthcoming, here is the most recent fund update letter (I can't provide a link because the site requires a password, the rest that follows is all from Travis Hamilton.)
February 14 --
January saw all major international equity indexes make gains from 2011's close on the back of surprisingly positive economic data out of the United States and Europe. Asia too fared well although much of the region took a breather in the latter portion of the month to celebrate the Lunar New Year. The Mongolian Stock Exchange continues to demonstrate its non-correlation to global indices, and finished the month down 5.2%. The Khan Mongolia Equity Fund portfolio was down 0.94% for the month, affected substantially by significant sell offs in two positions.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN:US) fell 13% to USD 16.14 after Rio Tinto raised its interest from 49% to 51% in an off-market transaction (at CAD 20 per share), and then stated publically that it had no immediate intention to buy further shares in the company. We agree with the general market consensus that Rio Tinto will seek to acquire in full Ivanhoe's 66% interest in Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi - the question remains when, not if. Winsway Coking Coal Holding Ltd (1733:HK) fell victim to a Chinese short selling scam and finished down 19.5% in the last days of January trade. The stock price has subsequently recovered to "pre-scam" levels. We identified the Jonestown Research scam early, and happily used the panic sell off to increase our position. Since inception the Company has analyzed and participated in 2 IPOs, rejected a 3rd and a debt offer. The portfolio is invested in 16 companies.
The Khan Mongolia Equity Fund performance for January was -0.94%.
The Net Asset Value as at 31 January 2012 was USD 92.80
The January Factsheet can be downloaded by registered users of the Khan Investment Management website.
It was announced recently that Goldman Sachs has acquired 4.8% of Mongolia's Trade & Development Bank - highlighting how keen foreign investors are to gain exposure to the economic growth being fuelled by Mongolia's resource boom. A number of Australian based brokers have increased coverage of ASX listed Mongolian mining exploration companies, and have been recently recommending several as speculative "buys".
I will be travelling to Mongolia in early March and will be attending the 2012 Mongolia Economic Forum, Mongolia's largest economic and social Forum aimed at improving economic growth and development policy. The Forum will be held in Ulaanbaatar on the 5th & 6th of March, and will undoubtedly intensify international interest in this rapidly growing economy. Further details can be found here.
Following my Mongolia visit, I will be presenting at the 8th Annual Asian Mining Congress, to be held at the Marina Bay Sands in Singapore 26-30 March. We are delighted to extend to you a complimentary pass to attend the conference if you would like to join us. Please note that all requests for complimentary passes must be received and processed before 29th of February.
Please don't hesitate to contact me if you would like to discuss the Khan Mongolia Equity Fund in any further detail.
I look forward to updating you further of our developments next month.
KHAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED
26 Feb, 07:28 PMReplyDelete CommentLike6
Jon, I spoke with Alex Molynuex, CEO of SouthGobi Resources. SGQ is having 3-4 mine tours between now and the end of the year. He said you're welcome to join one of the scheduled tours.
Jon, any chance you're headed back to Mongolia again?
26 Feb, 08:26 PMReplyDelete CommentLike2
I will be going back sometime between September and November of this year, hopefully either coordinating the trip to coincide with Discover Mongolia in September or Metals Mongolia in November, but no guarantee I can get that timing right at this time. Scheduling wise, my wife and I have our first child due in early July, and she and I need to talk about when will work best. If SouthGobi already has some rough dates planned for site visits in September/October/Nove... I will do my best to coordinate my visit accordingly.
26 Feb, 10:49 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3
March 5, 2012
It's going to be a busy month at the update and it will be a busy week this coming week in Mongolia. In Mongolia there's the Mongolia Economic Forum this week followed immediately by the Mongolian Investment Forum and the Mongolia IPO Forum. For conferences in Mongolia, the Economic Forum in March and Discover Mongolia in September are supposed to be tops among the general conferences. Coal Mongolia in February and Metals Mongolia in November are the mining specific conferences that get higher ratings.
On this site, a lot of articles and blogs to get posted during the next month; the top section listing articles and companies needs updating (the editor and author are aware); and some archiving of comments needs to be done soon (apologies to those with slow load times because of all the comments here - maintenance is coming soon).
On to the weekly investing news roundup from Mongolia from the first full week of the Mongolian New Year.
1) An interview with Travis Hamilton of the Khan Mongolia Equity Fund by yours truly. There are macro-related questions in parts of the interview valid for all investors. However, his fund is open only to worldwide accredited investors who can invest a minimum of $50,000.
Related: "Nick" Narantuguldur Saijrakh leaves post at Asia Pacific Securities to focus on Khan Mongolia Equity Fund http://bit.ly/xOiK04
3) Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) and South Gobi Resources (OTC:SGQRF) (SGQ.TO). (Note that IVN owns 58% of SGQRF.PK). Ivanhoe receiving interest to purchase parts of the company since Rio Tinto (RIO) took a 51% ownership stake in IVN.
- Mining Weekly http://bit.ly/yxwjgM
- Canadian Press http://bit.ly/wO7IRg
- Mining.com posits that Ivanhoe must sell assets to raise funds to pay for Oyu Tolgoi's development http://bit.ly/Asffpv
4) Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) and Rio Tinto (RIO). Oyu Tolgoi 75% complete and on-schedule to begin production later this year.
- Press Release: http://mwne.ws/zevwoG
- Reuters: http://reut.rs/zVTHQb
- Productions starts in Q3: http://bit.ly/xE2Ks3
5) SouthGobi Resources (OTC:SGQRF) (SGQ.TO) and Modun Resources (MOU.AX)
- trading halt of Modun March 1 http://bit.ly/y3keQn
- Modun March 5 suspension http://bit.ly/Aad3jg
- announcement that SouthGobi is selling its thermal coal at Tsagaan Tolgoi to Modun for $30 million March 5 http://bit.ly/AuuHI9
7) Kincora Copper (OTC:BZDLF) (KCC.V) says latest drilling indicates Bronze Fox is a very big deposit (which is in line with what Robert Friedland thought about it until the Mongolian government made him give it up to develop Oyu Tolgoi).
Proactive Investors: http://bit.ly/A7pTGG
Press Release: http://mwne.ws/zHly6C
8) Voyager Resources (OTC:VOYRF) (VOR.AX) with more good news.
- Proactive Investors: http://bit.ly/zLFXep
- Press Release on exploration: http://bit.ly/z1JXUC
- Semi-annual financial report: http://bit.ly/w6PXmb
- February 2012 presentation http://bit.ly/wh9fKc
9) Prophecy Coal (OTCPK:PRPCF), much good news.
- Eurasia Capital has a buy rating: http://bit.ly/A2s0OC
- Up-listed to TSX February 27 (as mentioned last week): http://bit.ly/AhVt7I
- Terminated $7 million of loans and completes $9 million private placement:http://bit.ly/zNKeN0
- James West of the Midas report likes Prophecy http://bit.ly/xgBmnM
- Proactive Investors http://bit.ly/yVWFaD
12) Altan Rio (AMO.V) extensive drill results: http://mwne.ws/wfj24t
13) Winsway (1733.HK) completes its $1 billion deal for Grand Cache and wants more deals.
- Bloomberg: http://bloom.bg/zOAuQN
- Reuters: http://bit.ly/wRiijZ
- But S&P lowers the ratings for their bonds: http://reut.rs/yIhGRQ
14) Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) gets a buy rating from Bank of America. http://bit.ly/yYuwuE
15) Undur Tolgoi (UTM.V) announces winter work:
17) Haranga Resources (HAR.AX) expands iron ore resources, gets buy rating, and issues annual report.
- Proactive Investors:
- Press Release: http://bit.ly/w2SDhR
- Taylor Collision (an Australian brokerage house) initiated coverage of Haranga with a "speculative buy" rating on February 27 (no link, membership to site required).
- Annual report: http://bit.ly/xOiK04
19) Robe (ROB.AX) monthly report. (I have heard on excellent authority that Jason Peterson of CPS is involved in Robe, so its worth keeping an eye upon. I have previously spoken about Matthew Wood of Garrison Capital's involvement in Hunnu, Haranga, Voyager Resources, Wolf Petroleum and Eumeralla. In all of these companies, Jason Peterson is also an involved party as Mr. Peterson of CPS and Mr. Wood of Garrison frequently partner in investment endeavors. However, in the case of Robe, it seems for now to only have verification of Mr. Peterson's presence.)http://bit.ly/xoKYLd
20) Eumeralla Resources (EUM.AX) to IPO March 9 (see above note on Robe as this one is backed by Matthew Wood and Jason Peterson per my understanding).
- Proactive Investors http://bit.ly/zI7smN
- Prospectus http://bit.ly/wys8za
22) Draig (DRG.AX) sets team to start drilling in mid-March http://bit.ly/ziHiEQ
23) General Mining Corp Managing Director Boris Matveev resigns:http://bit.ly/zpCDPK
24) Mongolian Energy Corp (MOEAF.PK) (MOEAY.PK) (0276.HK) enters cooperation agreement agreement with Shandong Energy Xinwen Group http://bit.ly/AAO22G
25) Erdenes MGL Tavan Tolgoi according to these articles still aims for an IPO in June. (I wouldn't bet on that if I was betting with someone else's money.)
Financial Channel: http://bit.ly/zorHBi
26) World Bank's Quarterly Report on Mongolia released February 28, 2012 (one of my favorite quarterly events): http://bit.ly/y4GP0E
27) Firebird Mongolia Fund and Firebird New Mongolia Fund manager James Passin interviewed: http://bit.ly/xVSdFb
28) Excellent video presentation by Christopher de Gruben of Real Estate Mongolia (28 minutes) http://bit.ly/xWQ0AY
29) Harvest Global Investments has launched the Asian Frontier Equity Fund with custodian services from BNP Paribas in late 2011, and is now marketing.
- BNP Paribas says its pioneering custodian relationships in Mongolia:http://bit.ly/zu7cyF
- Has about $20 million in assets (which I think would make it the 3rd biggest Mongolian investment fund - but that's a guess) http://bit.ly/zAH7I9
- Harvest Global's site: http://bit.ly/zyGqW5
- Bloomberg notes Harvest thinks Mongolian stocks still have a lot of "upside"http://bloom.bg/w8X2mw
30) Todd Baer named Executive Producer for Bloomberg TV Mongolia:http://bloom.bg/xzwQFE
31) Mongolia drawing investment interest from Polish mogul Roman Karkosikhttp://bit.ly/zzaNg6
32) Mongolia's parliament members consider extending land privatization laws an additional 5 years through 2018 (I believe this is the law that allows every citizen to claim roughly 7/10 of a hectare for themselves by putting up a fence on previously unclaimed property) http://bit.ly/yuaigk
33) Oxford Business Group launches it first annual Mongolia report.
- article http://bit.ly/zVR9dL
- can be purchased for 85 British pounds here http://bit.ly/wOmZJg (I'll review when I get my copy and have read through it)
34) Sustainable development conference in Mongolia May 16 to 19 called 'Future Mongolia'. First annual conference this year http://bit.ly/Azg84H
35) Trevor Williams of Global Atlanta with another interesting article about business in Mongolia http://bit.ly/zPSzR5
36) For real estate investors, city planning objectives for 2020 and 2030 in Ulaanbaatar to develop "sub-centers" (infrastructure hubs in different parts of the city with schools, hospitals, police departments, etc.) http://bit.ly/wkpIhh-
37) Blog on Moninvest (company to list in Frankfurt), Mongolia's ban on gambling, and Moninvest's idea of starting a national lottery in Mongolia. http://bit.ly/xchxbB
38) Jessica King at the St. Petersburg Times (of Russia), "Ulaanbaatar Makes Unlikely Magnet For Expats," http://bit.ly/zyGVbg
39) Teachers in Mongolia still striking for better wages: http://bit.ly/wQ2qBT
40) New parts of Great Wall discovered in Mongolia, or is it remnants of the Great Wall of Chinggis Khan? http://tgr.ph/ydwkfO
5 Mar, 11:17 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4
(addendum due to missing one from this week)
5 Mar, 11:29 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4
March 12, 2012
As of this Sunday, I've been traveling for 8 of the last 12 weeks. That pace is over now which means more Mongolia writing work from me for you.
This week in history and holiday celebrates the victory of Damdin Sukhbaatar on March 18, 1921, over the Chinese army. (Independence was declared first for Mongolia in 1911, but that was muddled by World War I, the Russian Revolution, and China's ongoing attachment to the land.) Sukhbaatar Square in front of the Mongolian parliament building is named for Damdin Sukhbaatar and he is forever there riding in on his horse. His Wikipedia page with some nice black and white photos is here:http://bit.ly/ytTTf6
Here we go, leading off with a story critical to Mongolia's future and how the society will avoid or run head long into "Dutch Disease."
1a) Mongolia's "Tavan Tolgoi East" (aka Big Tavan Tolgoi; Big TT) IPO is delayed. Story says the IPO on the Mongolia Stock Exchange may still happen before the June elections (which is a bad idea I'll write about in the next few weeks). However, the delay is to try and co-ordinate overseas listings in Hong Kong and London at the same time, and allow "the timing and place of sale to be decided on a "commercial" basis" according to Mining Minister D. Zorigt. Goldman Sachs (GS), Deutsche Bank (DBK), BNP Paribas (OTCQX:BNPQY), and Macquarie (OTCPK:MQBKY) all involved in IPO.
1b) Peabody (NYSE:BTU) and China Shenhua (OTCPK:CSUAY), and their bids for the West Tsankhi end of the same deposit ("Tavan Tolgoi West") perhaps affected as well. Indications from sources have been that the West Tsankhi sale was one of many of things that need to happen before the IPO of the East Tsankhi portion. Now add: Mitsui (OTCPK:MITSY) is co-bidding with China Shenhua; Itochu (OTCPK:ITOCY) is in the mix; and a host of other Japanese, Korean, and Russian companies are bidding as well. And then, to top it off, with June elections in sight, "some politicians call for Mongolia to develop West Tsankhi itself."
1c) Perhaps unrelated, but Mongolia's Prime Minister makes a state visit to Japan this week. http://bit.ly/xurUys
1d) Convertible bonds are considered for funding the project; possibly in advance of the IPO. http://bloom.bg/yJdOJl
1e) Frontier Securities believes its wiser to wait to IPO Tavan Tolgoi until the triple listing with Hong Kong and London can be done http://bit.ly/xrdHFq
1f) #25 on March 5, 2012 said: "Erdenes MGL Tavan Tolgoi according to these articles still aims for an IPO in June. (I wouldn't bet on that if I was betting with someone else's money.)"
2) Mongolia Mining Corp (MOGLF.PK) (0975.HK):
2a) CEO Dr. Battsengel Gotov interviewed on Bloomberg. The Bloomberg interviewer wants a stock promoter however Dr. Battsengel is in the business of running a business well - at some point the stock market will figure out there's a lot of value in that. http://bloom.bg/yeMGAK
2b) structures up to $300 million in loans http://bit.ly/yi3cwV
2c) annual report: http://bit.ly/z08QZE
2d) "Mongolian Mining Corporation (the "Company") is pleased to announce that on 5 March 2012, Energy Resources LLC, an indirect whollyowned subsidiary of the Company, entered into an amendment and consent agreement (the "Amendment and Consent Agreement") with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ("EBRD"), Nederlandse Financierings-Maatscha... Voor Ontwikkelingslanden N.V. (Entrepreneurial Development Bank of Netherlands) (the "Bank of Netherlands"), and Deutsche Investitions-und Entwicklungsgesellschaft mbH (The German Investment and Development Company) (the "German Company"). Pursuant to the Amendment and Consent Agreement, the parties agreed to amend the terms of the US$180 million term-loan facility under the loan agreements entered into by Energy Resources LLC with (i) EBRD on 12 May 2010 (as amended and restated on 11 August 2010 and further amended on 8 October 2010), (ii) the Bank of Netherlands on 11 August 2010 (as amended on 13 October 2010), and (iii) the German Company on 11 August 2010 (as amended on 13 October 2010), respectively. The proceeds of such US$180 million term-loan facility were applied to the development of the Group's coal handling and preparation plant (the "CHPP") and related infrastructure at Ukhaa Khudag mine of the Company (the "UHG mine")." http://bit.ly/wDeOMg
2e) on Seeking Alpha, article by Yiannis Mostrous (expect another article on Seeking Alpha about MOGLF.PK by me next week): http://seekingalpha.co...
4) Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) latest video (February 27, 2012). Open pit operations start this year. Full scale next year. Porphyry deposit production to come in 2015:http://bit.ly/xC56jM
5) GE (GE)? Or Softbank (OTCPK:SFTBY) and Korea Electric Power (KEP)? "Softbank Corp. said Saturday it will tie up with Mongolian investment firm Newcom Group and Korea Electric Power Corp. in order to start a wind power generation project in the Gobi Desert in Mongolia." Previous indications were that Newcom was partnered with GE on a wind project. Perhaps all are true. http://bit.ly/xy5Fw1
6) Voyager Resources (OTC:VOYRF) (VOR.AX). Ocean Equities releases a long research report on the company (with a bright outlook; better than the report from Foster Stockbroking) - 16 pages. http://bit.ly/yS2vmk%20~%20OEL%20Research%...
7) Kincora Copper (OTC:BZDLF) (KCC.V). If you bought Kincora on February 29 or March 1, well done as you're up almost 50% since then. This boost came when Kincora Copper Limited Announces Exploration Results and Its 2012 Strategyhttp://mwne.ws/xHDx0t
9) Khan Resources (OTC:KHRIF) (KRI.TO) quarterly results and update. In its case against Mongolia, "jurisdictional hearing scheduled for May, 2012. An eight binder submission in support of the Company's position on jurisdictional matters was made to the Tribunal on February 3, 2012. The Company remains confident of a favourable outcome to the arbitration action." "[I]n respect of its $300 million lawsuit against [ARMZ]… ARMZ appealed the decision and the appeal was heard on January 24, 2012. The parties are now awaiting the decision of the appeal court." Company also anticipates needing to list on a different exchange and is seeking alternatives to the TSX. http://bit.ly/AqJfB0
12) Solartech (1166.HK) interim results. New company here. Can press ctrl-F in report to search for Mongolia details (copper investment). http://bit.ly/zrnps4
13) Denison Mines (DNN) reports 2011 results. Mongolia relevant info: "Exploration expenditures of $200,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2011 ($129,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2010) and of $3,971,000 for the year ended December 31, 2011 ($970,000 for the year ended December 31, 2010) were incurred in Mongolia on the Company's joint venture properties. The Company has a 70% interest in the Gurvan Saihan Joint Venture ("GSJV") in Mongolia. The other parties to the joint venture are currently the Mongolian government as to 15% and Geologorazvedka, a Russian entity, as to 15%. Under the Nuclear Energy Law, the Government of Mongolia's position in the joint venture will increase from its current 15% interest to a 34% to 51% interest, depending on the amount of historic exploration that was funded by the Government of Mongolia, at no cost to the Government. This share interest will continue to be held by Mon-Atom LLC, the Mongolian State-owned uranium company. The Company and Mon-Atom are proceeding with restructuring the GSJV to meet the requirements of the Nuclear Energy Law, pending government reviews and authorizations. In November 2011, in preparation for this restructuring, the Company finalized terms for acquisition of the Russian participant's share in the GSJV. Subject to receipt of required approvals, this 15% share interest will be acquired by the Company for nominal cash consideration and release of the Russian participant's share of unfunded joint venture obligations… In Mongolia, a $4.1 million exploration and development program is projected, contingent upon receipt of the mining licences in mid-2012. Included in this budget is a $1.6 million, 17,500 metre exploration program focused on the Ulziit and Urt Tsav 2011 discoveries. The development activities will include design of the pilot plant and infrastructure."http://mwne.ws/wZdisX
14) Centerra Gold (OTCPK:CAGDF) is hopeful its Gatsuurt mine in Mongolia will start operating this year. The mine is affected by Mongolia laws regarding Forests and Rivers (aka "The Long Law" because it has a long name). As the CEO mentions, there's a better chance after the June elections for Gatsuurt to get clearance to operate, but most of Centerra's mining is in Kyrgyzstan regardless.http://onforb.es/wS2GCa
15) Development Bank of Mongolia:
15a) Mongolia to Start Marketing Public, State-Backed Bonds March 8 (Bloomberg). ING (ING), Deutsche Bank (DBK) and HSBC (HSBA) involved. "The country will need as much as $68 billion by 2015 to invest in new mines, roads, houses, farming and social spending, Trade and Development Bank estimated in October. Domestic sources will probably account for less than 27 percent of that, with the majority coming from foreign direct investment and international capital markets, the bank said." "The Development Bank of Mongolia sold $20 million of one- year bonds to ING in December in a private placement. The bonds carried a 6 percent coupon and a 1 percent fee, the bank's First Deputy Chief Executive Officer Bolormaa Luvsandorj said in December." (interesting when you consider 1 year CDs tend to pay 10% and more in Mongolia)
15b) "Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today [March 6, 2012] assigned its 'BB-' foreign currency issue rating to the proposed issue of U.S. dollar notes by Development Bank of Mongolia [DBM]." http://reut.rs/xpVq8x
16) China notes:
16a) Mitsui (OTCPK:MITSY) has cash and is looking for acquisitions including wanting " to add 120,000 tons of copper a year from South America, expecting Chinese demand will expand" (repeat: expecting Chinese copper demand will expand) and "Mitsui still wants to persevere in securing more coal from Mongolia": http://bloom.bg/ys5WfY
16b) China's Anhui Conch Cement Company is considering options to expand in Brazil and Mongolia: http://on.wsj.com/yYfA7f
16c) inflation may provide room for stimulus: http://bloom.bg/xWlQrV
16d) concerns in the Politburo and IMF that the growing wealth gap in China may bring about social unrest: http://bloom.bg/y4Iy3E
16e) "China posts largest monthly trade deficit in 12 years" ("Economists had expected a swing to a deficit on seasonal factors, but size of the deficit is a surprise… China still likely to post trade surplus for full year") http://bit.ly/x7MZXT
16f) China Yuan Reference Rate Falls Most Since August 2010 After Trade Deficit
16g) China Slowdown Bolsters Case for Monetary Easing as Yuan Slides: Economy
17) World Bank in Mongolia and lending to Mongolia. The World Bank has decided Mongolia is creditworthy enough International Bank of Reconstruction and Development [IBRD] lending. In the interim transition, Mongolia will receive International Development Association [IDA] lending.
18a) "What drives the togrog?" A brief investigation by ING Asia chief economist Tim Condon. "We believe the economic bust during the GFC persuaded the authorities at Mongol Bank to allow market forces greater sway in determining the togrog exchange rate. International commodity prices are the principal market force driving commodity currencies like the togrog."
18b) Frontier Securities' Dale Choi research report on the Mongolian Togrog. "[W]e view that depreciation will not turn around until there is less demand for USD due to reduction in investment related imports to [Oyu Tolgoi] and consumption of imported items, or until a massive increase in exports from [Oyu Tolgoi] when it comes on stream. Therefore we could see ongoing weakness of the MNT until then." (12 pages; analysis conclusions at bottom of page 2) http://bit.ly/w0cCvH
19) Op-ed style commentary on the state of education in Mongolia and the priority that should be placed on education http://bit.ly/xJdYHr
20) Interview with the CEO of Khan Bank (one of the four largest banks in Mongolia - others being Golomt, Trade & Development Bank, and Xac). http://bit.ly/wGbE9C-
21) Overview of four of the bigger local Mongolian companies (MAK, APU, Erdenet and MCS). http://bit.ly/wsPSCK-
22) "Prime Minister S. Batbold said that discussions held at the 2012 Mongolian Economic Forum would play a key role in the Mongolian Government's future decisions and strategies.
The PM stated that having more Mongolian companies listed on the Mongolian Stock Exchange. Paying careful attention to foreign investment, with the Government granting flexible taxes for new companies that create more jobs and the strong encouragement new ideas and innovation will be the three areas that receive the majority of the Government's energy and efforts."
23) Mongolia's parliament's Speaker Damdin Demberel touted making a green economy in Mongolia during the Mongolia Economic Forum http://bit.ly/xeQqZO
24) Recap of two days of Mongolia Economic Forum by the Business Council of Mongolia, "While at other forums the mining industry seems to consume every conversation and topic, this year at the Mongolia Economic Forum guests and presenters seemed to want to talk about anything other than the booming mineral sector."
25) Preferred Hotels (http://bit.ly/yhtFcS) will be operating the Blue Sky Hotel and Tower. It's the tallest finished building in Ulaanbaatar (others coming) and the location will maintain prominence as it faces Sukhabaatar Square and the Mongolian Parliament. http://bit.ly/xOP3af
26) Frontier Securities notes that Subsidized financing [mortgages at 6%] for 100,000 apartment program has officially began, to impact favorably property development, concrete and cement sector:
BUT BUT BUT
"But only one bank-Capital Bank expressed their will to issue 6 percent apartment loan said J.Aldarjavkhlan." http://bit.ly/zejIHy
27) Frontier Securities notes the IMF and World Bank agree that Mongolia may be overheating but only the Bank of Mongolia seems to be listening. http://bit.ly/zHlEpD
28) Mine-golia: A Young Democracy Seeks Investors (another overview article):http://bit.ly/zIcGYf
29) The next U.S. Ambassador to Mongolia will be Piper Campbell, currently serving as Consul General at the U.S. Consulate in Basra, Iraq. Not sure when the transition is, but best of luck and wishes to departing Ambassador Jonathan Addleton in his future endeavors (after tours in Mongolia with U.S. Aid in the early 2000s and as Ambassador for 3 years), and the same for the ambassador-to-be.http://wapo.st/xTdXfu
30) In one of the above articles about Tavan Tolgoi there was this election year political statement from President Tsakhia Elbegdorj, "We have limitations in our four-year electoral cycle. Only one year of four is productive and half of that is winter." Even better, he made this statement during an unscheduled appearance at the Mongolia Economic Forum, a forum at which later Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold gave the closing remarks. The President is a member of the Democrat Party and elections for President are next year, not this year. The Prime Minister is part of the ruling Mongolia People's Party, and elections for the parliament that will choose the new Prime Minister are this June. http://bloom.bg/y2fogq
31) Want to read more about Mongolia? Check out MongolianEconomy . mnhttp://bit.ly/wBFd3N
12 Mar, 02:48 PMReplyDelete CommentLike8
March 19, 2012
The quick hits of the investing news from Mongolia this past week:
1) Prophecy Coal (OTCPK:PRPCF) (PCY.TO):
a) My article from this week: http://seekingalpha.co...
b) Prophecy investor relations man Leo Liu's article on Mongolia's GDP growth and energy needs: http://seekingalpha.co...
2) Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK) (0975.HK):
a) "Profit rose 98 percent to $119.1 million last year, matching the average $118.7 million estimate of six analysts in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue climbed 96 percent to $542.6 million, the Hong Kong-listed company reported today."http://bloom.bg/GzpSeL
b) "Mongolian Mining Corporation (00975) said it proposes to issue US dollar denominated guaranteed senior notes due 2017. (article) http://bit.ly/GzpSH7
c) "The proposed issue of the Notes is intended for the following purposes: (1) for financing transportation infrastructure improvement and development projects, including, without limitation, for our UHG-GS railway project; (2) for working capital and other general corporate purposes, including, without limitation, for exploration and debt refinancing." (company release) http://bit.ly/GzpSeQ
d) Moody's assigns "B1" rating to Mongolian Mining; stable http://bit.ly/GzpQis
e) S&P Assigns 'B+' Rtgs To Mongolian Mining Corp http://bit.ly/GzpTzm
3) Haranga (HAR.AX) has a one-year chart that looks like a smile (with a few crooked teeth). The Matthew Wood - Jason Peterson Mongolian iron ore play had a newsy week.
a) A$6 million placement with Lippo Group http://bit.ly/GzpSHd
b) Mineral resources for Selenge project: http://bit.ly/GzpSeS
c) Mongolian brokerage Monet Capital raised their target price for Haranga on the Aussie exchange to A$1.40
d) please note the iron ore sector in Mongolia may be quite active this year as Beren Group seeks to raise $100 million on the Mongolia Stock Exchange while Altain Khuder is rumored to consider a Hong Kong IPO 5 to 10 times that amount.
7) SouthGobi Resources (OTC:SGQRF) (SGQ.TO)
a) Peter Epstein believes drop in share price last week was due to the company falling out of an index: http://seekingalpha.co...
b) Standard & Poor's Announces Changes in the S&P/TSX Canadian Indices TORONTO, March 9, 2012 /CNW/ - Standard & Poor's Canadian Index Operations announces the following index changes as a result of the Quarterly S&P/TSX Composite Index Review. These changes will be effective at the open on Monday, March 19, 2012 http://bit.ly/GzpSXv
c) Company release on same issue: http://bit.ly/GzpTzv
8) Mogul Ventures, which will IPO in the 2nd quarter has lots of great data now on their website including corporation presentation, factsheet, etc. http://bit.ly/GzpSXx
9) Undur Tolgoi (UTM on the CSNX) UTM Announces Winter Work Program Progress Report http://mwne.ws/GzpSve
12) Xanadu (XAM.AX) drilling news http://bit.ly/GzpTzz
14) FeOre (FEO.AX) Half-year report http://bit.ly/GzpQyX
15) Draig (DRG.AX) Half-year report http://bit.ly/GzpSvt
16) General Mining (GMM.AX) Half-year report http://bit.ly/GzpQyZ
18) Mongolia's bonds:
a) Development Bank of Mongolia Said to Market Bonds at 6% - 6.25%http://bloom.bg/GzpQz1
b) Moody's Disclosures on Credit Ratings of Mongolia, Government of
c) Development Bank of Mongolia opens floodgates for frontier credits, "Mongolia's only policy bank prints $580 million, with investors submitting a whopping $6.25 billion worth of orders." http://bit.ly/GzpTdX
d) from TheAsset.com (good article), Development Bank of Mongolia prices maiden bond issue http://bit.ly/GzpQz5
e) [quoted in full as link to Montsame newspaper reverts to Mongolian and then home page; source is Montsame.mn] DBM Establishes $200M Loan Facility with Ex-Im Bank of China
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, March 16 /MONTSAME/ The Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) has been allowed by the cabinet to establish a loan contract of up to USD 200 million with the Export-Import Bank of China, with an aim to create a financial resource for constructing apartments for state servants.
Related Minister and a leader of the DBM have been obliged to organize the construction of apartments and to give to the cabinet reports on implementation of the contract and construction process. Money equivalent to 15 per cent of the loan will be placed in the annual state budget for the construction.
The loan's term is 15 years, its interest is LIBOR+one percent a year. The payment of loan and its interest will not be made in the first three years after the establishment of contract.
20) National Statistical Office of Mongolia update after first two months of the year:http://bit.ly/GzpSLN
21) Tavan Tolgoi West bidding - South Korea in the mix http://fxn.ws/GzpSLR
23) Stock exchange developments. Mongolia beckons BNP Paribas Security Services. Important quote at the end, "As a result, no banks in the region offer custody services, so Au had to find brokers that "act in good faith" instead." When the regulations change to fix this, and it will, things will get interesting.http://bit.ly/GzpTPW
24) "Once the Sainshand Industrial Complex (SIC) is completed, a coal preparation plant, oil refinery, copper, iron and steel smelting and preparing plants will be in operation. This will be one of the most important projects in the near future; which will allow Mongolia to supply a variety of mineral products to the world market." Long-term industrial park project http://bit.ly/GzpTe2
25) Japanese-Mongolian ties resulting from Prime Minister Batbold's visit to Japan:
a) free trade talks http://bit.ly/GzpTQ4
b) Sumitomo Mitsui working with Development Bank of Mongolia http://bit.ly/GzpTuG
c) The Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC; President & CEO: Hiroshi Watanabe)*1signed today a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the purpose of enhancing financial cooperation, including provision of credit lines*2, with the Ministry of Finance of Mongolia. http://bit.ly/GzpU6l
d) Mitsui (OTCPK:MITSY) memorandum of understanding to work Erenes MGL Tavan Tolgoi (Big TT) project http://bit.ly/GzpTe6
e) Video report from WSJ Tokyo-based reporter (3 min) http://bit.ly/GzpTea
f) Article about "secret document detailing an international nuclear waste disposal site that Japan and the United States had planned to build in Mongolia." [No such thing is happening at this time and this nonsense was clearly rehashed due to the prime minister's visit.] http://bit.ly/GzpU6r
g) "a Japanese renewables advisory group has come up with a radical plan that would allow the country to import electricity from neighbouring countries…The group is the Japan Renewable Energy Foundation… its radical proposal - which would require changes to Japanese law for it to be implemented - is the creation of an Asian "super-grid," that would transport wind and solar energy from Mongolia to Japan." [including Korea and China in the mix as well] http://bit.ly/GzpTuK
WSJ: Rapidly Growing Mongolia Hopes to Avoid Overheatinghttp://on.wsj.com/GzpSM3
26) Investing in Mongolia: Is It Time to Buy the World's Fastest Growing Economy? By Martin Hutchinson, who concludes there's a lack of investing opportunities in Mongolia (great news if you're here… there's more investors on the way when they find the data) http://bit.ly/GzpU6u
27) Confederation of Mining Trade Unions wants the private sector minimum wage raised. "They recently conducted a survey of working Mongolians. According to the results, a strong correlation was drawn between the rise in public service wages and rising prices, particularly meat." http://bit.ly/GzpTec
28) Mongolians showing interest in apartment loan for 100,000 projecthttp://bit.ly/GzpT2k
29) "The IMF has closed down Resident Representative Offices in Mongolia and Lebanon this year as part of cost cutting measures." http://bit.ly/GzpU6y
a) "China was the top foreign investor in Germany in 2011, ahead of the United States, Switzerland and France, the government development agency Germany Trade & Invest said on Thursday."
b) The Chinese Yuan Takes A Hit. (from Seeking Alpha's Mad Hedge Fund Trader)http://seekingalpha.co...
c) China Home Prices Fall in More Than Half Cities Tracked http://bloom.bg/GzpTee
d) "China's statistics bureau said local officials forced some hotels, coal miners and aluminum makers to report false numbers, highlighting flaws in data tracking the world's second-largest economy." http://bloom.bg/yZTj60
e) China, the largest foreign U.S. creditor, increased its holdings of U.S. government securities in January for the first time in six months as European leaders struggled to contain the region's sovereign-debt crisis. http://bloom.bg/GzpW9D
31) Myanmar (in the realm of possibility for the next country I dig into):
- Great discussion in the comments here: http://seekingalpha.co...
- Which followed up this note from John Polomny: http://seekingalpha.co...
- As always, I encourage following John Polomny and will says his newsletter, at $49 per year, is a very good deal.
19 Mar, 07:01 PMReplyDelete CommentLike6
Some notes I should have mentioned about this week.
It is the Mines And Money conference in Hong Kong this week, which is a big deal, and if I'm smart, and able, I'd time my trip next spring to attend the Mongolia Economic Forum (in Mongolia in early March) and then this conference (in Hong Kong). http://bit.ly/GGjgcc
However, even more importantly, this coming weekend is the Hong Kong Sevens rugby tournament which is where people who stay on after the Mines And Money conference do big deals. http://bit.ly/GCXaEn
20 Mar, 09:53 PMReplyDelete CommentLike5
Maintenance notice. Archives 3, November 21, 2011 to February 6, 2012, is posted http://seekingalpha.co.... Comments in that date range now being deleted from here.
20 Mar, 09:13 AMReplyDelete CommentLike6
Some notes about revisions to the top section of this blog.
Regarding the list of companies above, international companies whose operational results are not significantly impacted by Mongolian operations have been removed (despite their doing business in Mongolia) so it is easier to find the companies with which to invest.
I also have reformatted a bit and added two new sections:
FREE OVERVIEWS OF MONGOLIA
- 2009 Mineral Yearbook on Mongolia by U.S. Geological Surveyhttp://on.doi.gov/srnXkb
- Eurasia Capital Outlook 2011 (dated January 11, 2011) http://bit.ly/svbYtN
- ResCap Mongolia 101 (dated January 24, 2011) http://bit.ly/GFpfxe
- Capitalist Exploits Mongolia Report (interview series that can be downloaded, from fall 2011) http://bit.ly/GDuFg9
MONGOLIA WEEKLY UPDATE RECOMMENDS
- Mongolian Economy - http://bit.ly/wBFd3N - free, an online version of a popular magazine in Mongolia; a different outlook than what I provide
- De Facto - http://jargaldefacto.com - free, interviews with non-Mongolians are in English after introductory minute (I met Jargalsaihan on my last trip to Mongolia and will do a write up about him by April; need time to watch more interviews so I can recommend particular ones)
- Capitalist Exploits - http://bit.ly/GDuEsH - free, Mark Wallace and Chris Tell provide a variety of perspectives on investing in frontier markets
- Adventures In Capitalism - http://bit.ly/GFpfxg - free, Harris Kupperman, a successful hedge fund manager for over a decade and CEO of Mongolia Growth Group shares his thoughts, travels, and opinions, and answers questions (on anything except Mongolia Growth Group; go to the company website for information on that)
- John Polomny - http://bit.ly/GDuFgd - an experienced investor in frontier markets and natural resources (among other things), I recommend reviewing his posts on Seeking Alpha to review his material, but also do recommend his newsletter for $49 per year (monthly newsletters, no archive access)
- Bill Fleckenstein - http://bit.ly/GFpfxh - $120/year, daily commentary and questions answered by a hedge fund manager who started out working for Jim Grant (full archive access to over a decade of data; insightful comments from select readers and friends of Fleck; a very well spent $10 per month; don't order a soda when you go out to eat three to five times per month, depending on restaurant, and subscribe)
Lastly, as always, I receive no compensation from any company or website recommended. The only compensation I get is from your clicks on my articles, and (in the future) publishing elsewhere.
20 Mar, 11:48 PMReplyDelete CommentLike5
March 26, 2012
Welcome to the weekly update of investing relevant news from Mongolia.
1) Ivanhoe (IVN) / Rio Tinto (RIO) / Oyu Tolgoi
1a) 2011 financial results and review of operations http://mwne.ws/GSK1HY
1b) On track for 3Q 2012 start of operations http://bit.ly/H7rNpm
1c) Issues getting energy resources imported from China while still constructing a dedicated power plant for the mine could delay production http://bit.ly/GSK3zr
2) South Gobi Resources (OTC:SGQRF)
2a) NI 43-101 resources increase http://mwne.ws/GSK1I2
2b) 4th quarter financial and operating results http://mwne.ws/H7rNpp
2c) (Reuters) Operating loss narrows on higher coal prices http://bit.ly/GSK3zt
2d) SouthGobi Resources 2011 profit aided by 58% boost in coal soldhttp://bit.ly/GSK1Yk or replicated here http://bit.ly/GSK1Ym
3) Mongolia Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK) (0975.HK)
3a) Mongolian Mining's debut bond offering attracts huge demand "The Hong Kong-listed coal mining company on March 22 priced a five-year USD600 million issue at par with similar coupon and yield of 8.875 percent. This was at the tight end of the revised price guidance of between 8.875 percent and nine percent, which was well inside the early guidance of 9.375 percent area. The initial price thought had indicated a mid nine percent yield." http://bit.ly/GSK1Yo
3b) Company release,
Issuance of US$600,000,000 8.875%, guaranteed senior notes due 2017.http://bit.ly/H7rLh6
3c) Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that its corporate credit rating on Mongolia-based coking coal producer Mongolian Mining Corp. (MMC; B+/Stable/--) and its rating on MMC's senior notes maturing 2017 are unaffected by the company's decision to increase its issuance to US$600 million. http://reut.rs/GSK1Ys
3d) "Petrovis has launched a block sale of Mongolian Mining Corp shares to raise up to HK$657.9m (US$84.7m). It is offering 83m-86m secondary shares at HK$7.35-$7.65 each, representing discounts of 2.3%-6.1%... The deal size is equivalent to 2.24%-2.32% of the company capital. Macquarie is sole bookrunner and placement agent." http://bit.ly/H7rLha
4) Voyager Resources (OTC:VOYRF) (VOR.AX) continues to issue drilling results. "The identified Fault Corridor (Figure 1) extends for over three kilometres in strike with mineralisation being identified over the extent of the Corridor. Voyager believes that the Corridor acts as a conduit to a porphyry stock located to the southwest of Cughur with the breccia pipes exploiting the weaker structure to intrude up the corridor."
5) Origo Partners (OPP.L) Origo announces a world class molybdenum resource at Moly World's Mandal Moly project
6) Erdene Resource Development (OTCPK:ERDCF) (ERD.TO) CEO Peter Akerley on Bloomberg TV (5 minutes). Splitting out Mongolian assets of company possible in next few months. Worth watching. http://bloom.bg/GSK1Yt
7) Mongolia Growth Group ",announces that 190,000 5-year stock options to purchase shares of MGG at a price of $4.00 per share have been issued to salaried employees of MGG and its wholly owned Mongolian subsidiary pursuant to the Company's stock option plan. These options have been issued in order to retain and motivate new and existing employees of the Company." http://bit.ly/H7rNFK
8) Undur Tolgoi (UTM.V) - a company backed by Firebird Funds - adds two members to the board of note. Kenneth Farrell of Indonesia's Bumi Resources and Saruul Ganbaatar, "Chief Regulatory Officer of the Mongolian Stock Exchange. Prior to his appointment to the Mongolian Stock Exchange, Saruul worked in the Development Financing and Cooperation Department of the Ministry of Finance."http://mwne.ws/GSK1Yx
10) Worley Parsons (WYPGF.PK) (WOR.AX) "The company, in a statement on Friday, said it had been awarded the engineering, procurement and construction management contract for the Tsagaan Suvarga project operated by the largest privately-owned firm in Mongolia, Mongolyn Alt Corporation." [I think MCS Group is larger if all subsidiaries are included in valuation, but MCS and Mongolyn Alt are both major conglomerates in Mongolia] http://bit.ly/GSK3zz
11) Guildford (GUF.AX) raised $25 million http://bit.ly/H7rLxO
12) Robe (ROB.AX), monthly report http://bit.ly/GSK1YA
13) Mines & Money Hong Kong 2012 conference news and award winners. Mongolia wins "Mining Country of the Year," Hunnu Coal buyout by Banpu (OTC:BNPJF) awarded "Deal of the Year," Ivanhoe-Rio Tinto Oyu Tolgoi project wins "Project Development of the Year, James Passin of Firebird Funds wins "Fund Manager of the Year" and Robert Friedland of Ivanhoe wins "Mining Personality of the Year"http://bit.ly/H7rNFT
14) Tavan Tolgoi: Mongolia's Tavan Tolgoi may need to raise $400m before IPO. This article should be read only for the fact that it quotes Big TT COO Graeme Hancock at length. Mr. Hancock formerly worked for the World Bank in Mongolia and based on his prior track record, is someone of high integrity always worth listening to (while remembering he is in a position that requires a certain diplomatic agenda at this stage of his career).
14a) Mineweb: http://bit.ly/GSK3zD
14b) WSJ: http://on.wsj.com/H7rLxT
14c) Reuters: http://bit.ly/GSK1YC
15) Ikh Gobi, coking coal miner in the Mongolian Gobi Desert plans IPO in Hong Kong for 2013. "The project is expected to have a deposit of 100 million tonnes of coal. The company plans to produce 500,000 tonnes of coal this year, rising to 20 million tonnes a year in 2015."
16) Wind energy in Mongolia:
16a) General Electric (GE). NewCom Group. Another article about the 50MW wind farm being built in Mongolia. http://on.ft.com/GSK3zF
16b) EBRD to give $47 million to the project http://bit.ly/H7rNWi
17) Frontier Securities macro outlook update (14 pages, nice charts and graphs). Conclusion: "Another hike by authorities in salaries of public servants and pensions of senior citizens just a few days ago is further in line with the trend of electoral politics exerting stronger and stronger influence on macroeconomic policies and continued deterioration of macroeconomic discipline. We view that the current excessively loose macroeconomic stance is unlikely to change until the Parliamentary elections that are to be held in June 2012. Because of that and coupled with continued commodities export boom, we expect continued overheating of the economy this year, further and further increasing vulnerability of the economy to external shocks. After elections and depending on the outcome of the said elections, there could be possibly accumulation of political will for revision by the next authorities of their current stance of misinterpretation of economic reality, overly confidence and optimism and possibly resulting in much needed restraining of fiscal spending and tightening of monetary conditions to cool the overheated economy and make it more resilient." Full report:http://bit.ly/GSK3PX
18) Frontier Securities Exchange Rate Outlook (19 pages). Conclusion: "we continue to view that MNT depreciation will not turn around until there is less demand for USD due to reduction in investment related imports to ramp up of major mines and consumption of imported items, or until massive increase in exports from OT and TT when they come on stream. Consequentially, we could see ongoing weakness of the MNT in 2012." http://bit.ly/GW733s
19) Interview on Bloomberg TV with Peter Morrow, current Deputy Chairman of NewCom Group and former CEO of Khan Bank in Mongolia from 2000 to 2010.http://bloom.bg/GSK3PZ
20) Prime Minister Batbold (link for Mongolian speakers only) interviewed by Jargalsaihan (I can't understand the Mongolian myself, but there are enough Mongolians here, the interview warrants posting when it's the Prime Minister)http://bit.ly/H7rNWq
21) Prime Minister Batbold on three key decisions (UB Post) -http://bit.ly/GSK3Q3-
21a) "Prime Minister announced that the Cooperative Government has reached one of its main objectives, which was to increase the salary, pensions, and benefits by two to three times the current level."
21b) "The next item the Prime Minister spoke about was the "Homes for 100,000 Households" program. He said that the second order of new apartments to be built in and around the city and in rural areas has been approved. The first order was for 79,000 homes to be built, and it has now been increased by 44,700, reaching 124,000 total."
21c) "The Development Bank opened its doors ten months ago and now it has released a 5 year long term bond worth of USD 580 million, successfully setting Mongolia's standard rate of interest. The interest rate of the bonds released by the Development Bank is 5.75%. The Prime Minister said that this has been a successful move by the Development Bank, which has also been praised by various international banks and media agencies."
22) Frontier Securities report on Mongolia's Prime Minister Batbold's recent visit to Japan and the state of Japanese-Mongolian business relations. [Note: Founder and CEO of Frontier Securities Masa Igata is Japanese.] (10 pages; picture on page 9 is Prime Minister Batbold and Mr. Igata talking) http://bit.ly/H7rM4F
23) Mongolia Bonds. Related to #18 from last week's update. Mayer Brown JSM advises Development Bank of Mongolia on US$580 million bonds issuancehttp://bit.ly/GSK2eS
24) Member of Parliament for the Democrat Party Battulga Khaltmaa, also of Genco Group and among the Democrat Party's many recently resigned cabinet members, "On Thursday… gave to the Corruption Combating Agency (CCA) materials with "information about some politicians' affairs"." "When talking about the corruption, we always connect it with medical doctors, judges or teachers. In reality, the most corrupted have been all levels of parliament and the government which can be proved by the poverty the people are living in," Kh.Battulga stressed. [Pay attention to Mr. Battulga. He is popular and among Mongolia's five richest men.]http://tinyurl.com/bo3... [from Montsame, 23 March 2012]
25) Miner & Supplier [conference] 2012: Lack of information causes confusion and difficulty for supply companies (UB Post) "The President of the Government Implementing Agency for Small and Medium Enterprises, Ts. Nyam-Ochir said, "Although it can be said that Mongolia's mining sector is at a moderately high level of development right now, it can also be said that the procedure to supply them with required goods is only at the initial stage. There is a need for mining companies to include provincial SMEs for their provisional services. For companies with foreign investments, it is advised to create 5 - 10 year agreements with domestic suppliers which will supply specific goods requested by the company.""
27) Moody's reviews four Mongolian banks' ratings for downgrade. "March 26 (Reuters) - Golomt Bank, Khan Bank, the Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia (TDB) and XacBank." http://reut.rs/H7rM4K
28) Is Mongolia Fighting Or Preparing To Fight Corruption? "Mongolia seems succeeding to create the legal environment to tame the corruption by institutionalizing its efforts. But, these laws and any agencies will be powerless in the absence of political will and interest to clean up the Mongolian public service before massive mining revenues appear from 2013. The Transparency International's corruption perception index of Mongolia again regressed from 116 to 120 in 2011. It was 43 in 1999. Of course, we can argue there might be some deficiencies in the measurements or analysis of the Transparency International. Because some may argue, Mongolia is doing so well in eradicating the corruption…" http://bit.ly/GSK2eY
29) Mongolian capital city hopes to improve transportation with huge investment (115 projects to be completed by 2030)
30) An article on one of the challenges as the country grows, Mining vs. Tourism (UB Post) http://bit.ly/H7rOd0- [note from JS: those with language skills are being snapped up by the mining and investing community in Mongolia; tourism pay cannot compete with mining pay at this time]
31a) Patrick Chovanec and Andrew Batson debate whether or not China will have a hard landing http://bit.ly/GSK2f0
31b) Bloomberg article weighs in on soft vs. hard landing, "The good news: China's government will engineer a soft landing. The bad news: Even a soft landing is painful for industries that have become dependent on the world's fastest-growing major economy as their main profit engine." http://bloom.bg/H7rOd1
31c) "The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, announced Wednesday that it has signed supplementary currency swap agreements with the Bank of Mongolia, doubling the scale of a 2011 bilateral swap deal."http://bit.ly/GSK3Qe
31d) China's February coking coal imports rebound. Top suppliers month-on-month. Mongolia listed first at 1.74 million tonnes, followed by Australia, 1.34 mt, Canada .75mt, Russia, .39mt, Indonesia, .28mt, USA .09mt.
31e) "China's biggest banks, set to post record profits for a fifth year, may report 2011 results marred by an increase in bad loans as an economic slowdown and faltering property market trigger defaults by borrowers." http://bloom.bg/GSK2f2
31f) Chinese developers are setting up property funds to diversify their sources of revenue as government real-estate curbs have led to a cash shortage.http://bloom.bg/H7rM4X
32) Myanmar. Capitalist Exploits gives an informative rant on developments in Myanmar's capital markets and China's good position there alreadyhttp://bit.ly/GSK46s
26 Mar, 09:54 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4
33) This note is from Masa Igata, CEO of Frontier Securities. One very alert Mongolia Weekly Update follower mentioned that Mr. Igata said exactly what it says below on Bloomberg TV last week (but I have not been able to find a link, thus I post his note).
March 26, 2012
FRONTIER SECURITIES CEO: BUY MONGOLIA NOW - BEFORE PRICES RISE AFTER ELECTIONS EUPHORIA
HONG KONG -March 26, 2012 - "There may still be political uncertainty in Mongolia before the elections but one thing is certain: if you're thinking of buying a Mongolian investment opportunity, better consider doing it now while valuations are still cheap," said Masa Igata, Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Frontier Securities speaking to Bloomberg on sidelines of annual Mines and Money Hong Kong. "It is clear that after elections euphoria, investors and hot money will rush in into the country
Potential is huge. It is 8 billion USD economy while only infrastructure project investment needs alone are 50 billion USD in coming five to seven years. They have coal, copper, iron ore, uranium and even oil, you name it, they have it. They have everything that China and other rapidly neighboring developing countries need. It's all basically untapped, it has been developed for only 2 -3 years.
This is just a beginning.
While we worry about resource nationalism in coming elections in June and other issues such as inflation, we believe that Mongolia has become realistic about need to be competitive to attract and keep foreign investment. Politicians are very bright, speak fluent English. They know how to balance. They know how to manage. Now they realize that Mongolia's location between Russia and China is important location that in reliance with the USA, Japan, Korea and other countries can bring them huge benefits."
26 Mar, 10:00 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4
It looks like Guildford will be able to raise more money now that it has found fluorite in Mongolia.
31 Mar, 02:49 AMReplyDelete CommentLike1
Thanks for the link. That is indeed good news for GUF.AX. Do you have any thoughts on their timeline for exploring, developing and producing from that resource? I am always reminded of Chihawk's Junior Investing And Trading Basics article as these companies make new discoveries:http://seekingalpha.co...
31 Mar, 07:23 AMReplyDelete CommentLike1
I think the stock is good to go for the near term. The company is in the discovery speculation phase of development so it is bound to attract additional speculative interest. It is always heartening to see a basic materials producer or explorer find some minerals which are scarce and in demand. The stock can be bought now for the best price since early of last year. The management is shrewd to diversify into Mongolia from Queensland since there may come a day when coal mining in Queensland won't be as competitive as it is now. And when China comes out of its recession, there will be a demand squeeze on nearby coal and rare mineral deposits.
But it is no doubt wise to watch out for any further dilution or financial reverses as time goes on, perhaps in a couple of years. One might as well sell some shares when that happens.
31 Mar, 02:35 PMReplyDelete CommentLike2
34) Focus On Mongolian Mining Corporation, Mongolia's Flagship Public Company (my newest article; please note that I will begin purchasing shares of this company one week after today's publication) http://seekingalpha.co...
27 Mar, 08:59 AMReplyDelete CommentLike2
1. Not sure if you have seen last week's announcement of Asian Development Bank:
"Mongolia to Develop Government Bond Market with ADB Assistance"
2. I also have seen rumors today from Reuters/ IFR that Xac Bank is planning to issue an offshore bond and has mandated ING.
27 Mar, 10:04 AMReplyDelete CommentLike3
Thank you for those links sharfich. Xac Bank is (I believe) the 4th largest bank in Mongolia and part of the local conglomerate Tenger Financial Group: http://bit.ly/H9zQxQ Updates from others always welcome here.
27 Mar, 10:27 AMReplyDelete CommentLike2
XacBank is targeting their bond issue for this coming week according to my contacts at the bank.
1 Apr, 03:16 AMReplyDelete CommentLike2
Thanks Mr. Bennett. Good to see you here again.
1 Apr, 07:46 AMReplyDelete CommentLike1
Important pre-weekly-update announcement:
SouthGobi (OTC:SGQRF) Signs Cooperation Agreement With Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (CHALCO) and Receives Notification of CHALCO's Intention to Make a Proportional Take-Over Bid at C$8.48 Per Share
This looks to be essentially Ivanhoe (IVN) selling its stake in South Gobi to CHALCO at a 28% premium to Friday's South Gobi closing share price of CAD$6.62
Those looking to trade SouthGobi in Hong at the 9:30am opening (minutes away), the symbol is 1878.HK
THANKS to Mogi at CPS International for the alert!!!
1 Apr, 09:08 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3
Opened up about 20% at HK$60.50
At current exchange rate, the deal is HK$66.05
1 Apr, 09:36 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3
More on SouthGobi (OTC:SGQRF) (SGQ.TO) (1878.HK) (HOX.SG) (HOX.BE) (HOX.MU) (HOX.F)
SouthGobi closed in Hong Kong at HK$60.50 after a busy day of trading where average daily volume in Hong Kong was arrived at in about in 15 minutes. Chinalco (NYSE:ACH) closed down 1.6%. Value of the deal expressed in Hong Kong share price at the end of trading (after currency fluctuation) was $65.97.
Headlines and links -
(Bloomberg TV interview - 5 minutes) Chalco Takeover Almost Certain, SouthGobi CEO Says http://bloom.bg/H9vZaO
(Reuters) UPDATE 3-Chalco to buy Ivanhoe's SouthGobi stake in $926 mln dealhttp://reut.rs/HeuKQN
(Bloomberg) Chalco Agrees to Buy Ivanhoe SouthGobi Stake in Takeover Offerhttp://bloom.bg/H9vZr6
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) press release http://mwne.ws/HeuJMv
SouthGobi press release http://mwne.ws/HzevmR
Disclosure: I purchased shares at an average cost of HK$59.38.
2 Apr, 05:21 AMReplyDelete CommentLike3
April 2, 2012
I just spent the weekend with my wife in Washington D.C. (unaware of a conference at the Mongolian Embassy in D.C. this past weekend that's in the news below). One thing I did notice were billboards advertising work being done on Washington's Metro (public transit) system. "Metro Fact #1: Metro is investing more than $5 billion in over a hundred project" http://bit.ly/HIcgZw
Why do you care? Perspective. Mongolia's average GDP between 2007 and 2010 was about the same amount as the DC area is about to spend on its metro system:http://bit.ly/H9W1Zs . GDP was up last year and set to go up dramatic amount percentage-wise year-over-year through at least 2020 with Oyu Tolgoi and Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi ramping up production. Yet, the investments in infrastructure needed are large. As when I've compared Mongolia's GDP to that of Chicago's (in Coal In Mongolia, Part 1, The China Factor), the point is perspective on the scale of things.
New in the top section of this blog, a link to: Other Authors' Articles And Blogs On - Or Relevant To - Mongolia On Seeking Alpha
http://seekingalpha.co... (suggestions for inclusion welcome).
On to the weekly update (SouthGobi, Chinalco and Ivanhoe dominate a long #1 - keep in mind posts about this deal started three posts earlier).
1a) Some thoughts from me:
Chinalco's canceled order from state-run Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi six weeks back (#8 on February 24, 2012) makes more sense and looms as a larger issue for the Mongolian government (that already spent at least some of the money - $250 million - from the deal)… one wonders if this will become a political football in Mongolia with those aiming for populist nationalist sentiment in the run-up to June elections… the deal gives Ivanhoe (IVN) $900 million in cash or so (good for them) and clarifies Ivanhoe as a pure Oyu Tolgoi play (a recent research note said OT was 83% of the value of IVAN and another 5% was SouthGobi)...
1b) Closing prices for Monday in Hong Kong (1878.HK) = $60.50 U.S. (OTC:SGQRF) = $7.65, Toronto (SGQ.TO) $7.52 and Frankfurt=EUR5.80 (Frankfurt's volume is small, but most among German listings).
1c) The discount on share price compared to the Chinalco price is everywhere. HK$60.50=EUR5.85=CAD$7... (per Yahoo at 5pm New York time). Thus, the global SouthGobi markets turn back to Hong Kong for leadership Tuesday as Hong Kong's close was the high of the day and almost 10% below the price to be paid by the deal's MOU by Chinalco.
1d) SouthGobi consultant and regular SA contributor Peter Epstein's thoughts:
"This development has a lot of moving parts. The reason why SouthGobi stock has not traded up to the deal price is that investors don't fully understand the implications. CHALCO is tendering for at least 100% of IVN's roughly 56% stake, but up to 60% of the total outstanding shares, on a proportional basis.
"The sticker shock of the $8.48 price is disappointing to many who believed that SouthGobi had a good chance of being taken out entirely in 2012 at a share price of $11-$12. What has happened is that IVN tendered its stake in a fire sale, they needed the cash.
"Non-tendering shareholders still can benefit from the greatly de-risked story, (with CHALCO as the majority holder, not IVN). But, it may take some time for the market to understand what CHALCO's involvement will mean for SouthGobi.
"I believe that SouthGobi's operations will clearly improve over time due to this news, but I fear that some SouthGobi investors will be impatient and not want to wait around. SouthGobi is still a show-me and/or story stock.
"As I learn more, I will update SA readers. I would definitely NOT sell stock below the $8.48 tender price!" (comment originally posted in the comments of this article:http://seekingalpha.co...)
1e) Mineweb article on the deal http://bit.ly/HIcfEE
[rest coming shortly, but wanted to get this up more than 30 minutes before markets open in Hong Kong]
2 Apr, 08:53 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3
April 2, 2012 (continued)
2) Debt markets and credit ratings:
2a) Mongolian debt impresses the markets with Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK) and the state's Development Bank of Mongolia both have successful bond offerings in the past two weeks. http://read.bi/HbcApV
2b) Following on Moody's note from last week, "Fitch: Mongolian banks pressured from overheating growth" http://reut.rs/H5a2Fg
2c) "Fitch Rates Mongolia's XacBank's Senior Notes 'B(exp)'"http://reut.rs/HbcCOB
2d) Mach 30, 2012. Moody's may cut Mongolian bank ratings to match sovereignhttp://bit.ly/H5a2Fh
2e) Mongolia fever continues as XacBank hits the road, "March 29 (Euroweek) XacBank is hoping to follow the success of Mongolian Mining Corp and Development Bank of Mongolia, which drew $11.75bn of demand between them, demonstrating the strong appetite for Mongolian credits… The bank will meet investors in Hong Kong, Singapore and London from Thursday and may issue a Reg-S bond next week… ING Bank and UBS are arranging the roadshow… XacBank's transaction will be drawn from its $300m euro medium term note programme, set up by ING and UBS last year. Bankers in the deal are hoping that investors' appetite for the two recent Mongolian issuers will also apply to XacBank - and will be more than enough to overcome Moody's plan to downgrade Xacbank, along with three other Mongolian lenders."http://bit.ly/HbcAGc
2f) Frontier Securities 5 page report on Development Bank of Mongolia and Mongolian Mining Corporation deals, and what they mean for Mongolia's economy going forward http://bit.ly/H5a2Fl
3) Mongolian Mining Corporation (MOGLF.PK)
3a) My article on the company if you missed it (with many thanks to those who tweeted the article, posted links on Facebook, and other social media kindness):http://seekingalpha.co...
3b) Petrovis sold 84.5M MMC shares at HK$7.5, bringing stake to 9.1% from 11.4% http://bit.ly/Hff5Fb
3c) Hogan Lovells Advises Macquarie Capital Securities on Mongolian Mining Corporation Share Placing by Petrovis Resources http://bit.ly/H5a2Fp
4) Rail, infrastructure, & development.
4a) "Confidential" Agreement made by the former Minister Battulga is revealed [Article insinuates the agreement was so confidential other cabinet members and the Prime Minister were unaware it was signed by Mr. Battulga (Mr. Battulga was discussed at length in my recent article on Mongolian Mining Corporation).
4b) Ch.Khurelbaatar: We will talk about Tavan Tolgoi after it passes through the National Security Council. March 28, 2012. A most interesting interview. Some excerpts: "When I asked Kh.Battulga whether these contracts were made he answered, "No," but later I have saw signed contracts." "We have lengthened the Tavan Tolgoi contract procedures to continue with the Ukhaa Khudags work." [Also addresses some election-related issues and the rail project to Sainshand (proposed to be an industrial hub in the southeast of Mongolia for the rail project from the Gobi to Russia (north) and China (south)] http://bit.ly/H5a14c
4c) S.KOREAN CONSORTIUM SIGNS TAVAN TOLGOI RAILWAY DEAL
4e) Meanwhile. March 28, 2012. "The Cabinet meeting yesterday discussed implementation of the Policy Document on Railway and decided to establish 51 percent state owned company. New company to be own basic infrastructure of railway. For financing of new company The Government Reserve Fund will spend MNT518 million. Other MNT 399 million will be a loan." http://bit.ly/H5a14h
4f) Unrelated or the impetus? March 27, 2012. President Elbegdorj sent a list of rail and infrastructure project ideas for the Gobi provinces in the south - many related to Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi - to the cabinet for discussion.http://bit.ly/HbcD54
4g) March 29, 2012. "MPs Kh.Battulga and L.Gundalai today gave some documents and facts to the General Prosecutor Office. Those materials says some MP's might be connected to corruption crime. MP Kh.Battulga gave those documents last Friday to Anti Corruption Agency." http://bit.ly/H5a14j
4h) Let us wait to judge until the facts all come out. There will be a lot more details and I'm sure these situations will have a few more turns before there is clarity.
6) For coal investors, I recommend reading Peter Epstein's March 12's Fascinatingly Negative Point Of View From A Bernstein Report On The China Coal Situation (and Mark Anthony's note in the comments of recent):http://seekingalpha.co...
7) Ivanhoe (IVN) / Rio Tinto (RIO) / Oyu Tolgoi:
7a) March 2012 Corporate Presentation: Countdown to Startup
7b) 500 page annual technical report http://bit.ly/H5a1kB
7c) 88 page annual information form http://bit.ly/HbcDlm
7d) Ivanhoe Mines Seeks Out Copper In The Gobi Desert; 2 Ways To Play Goldhttp://seekingalpha.co... [this is an interview and the person interviewed did not speak knowledgably in my opinion, but I cordially request you click and encourage a new contributing author to Seeking Alpha]
9) Entree Gold Announces Fiscal Year 2011 Results and Reviews Corporate Highlights http://mwne.ws/HbcDlq
10) Guildford Coal (GUF.AX):
10a) Finds Fluorite in Mongolia http://bit.ly/H50wGJ (thanks to Valley Boy)
10b) Company release on Fluorite http://bit.ly/HbcDlu
10c) Och-Ziff reduces exposure from 12.64% to 10.86% via disposal and dilutionhttp://bit.ly/H5a2VH
10d) The Australian http://bit.ly/HbcAGs
11) Black Ridge Mining (BRD.AX)
11a) "early data suggests it has the more valuable heavy rare earths, including yttrium (the latter looking to be in deficit at least until 2016)" http://bit.ly/H50wGJ
11b) Proactive Investors: http://bit.ly/HbcDly
11c) Company relase: http://bit.ly/H5a2VL
12) Haranga (HAR.AX) Mineralised Intersections Continue at Two Further Iron Ore Targets at Selenge http://bit.ly/HbcDlC
13) FeOre (FEO.AX) prepares for construction following government approval for Ereeny iron ore Feasibility Study
13a) Proactive Investors: http://bit.ly/H5a2VP
13b) Company release: http://bit.ly/HbcAWM
14a) Partial Settlement And Extension Of Time For Settlement Of The Repayment Sum "
Reference is made to the Company's announcement in relation to the termination of the Transaction on 5 January 2012 regarding acquisition of resources in Xinjiang, the People's Republic of China." http://bit.ly/yXawzn
14b) Full Settlement Of The Repayment Sum announcement "On 26 March 2012, the Company received the full amount of the Repayment Sum from Mr. Liu pursuant to the settlement proposal" http://bit.ly/HbcDBS
15) Draig Resources Limited (DRG.AX)
15a)"advises it has mobilised two drill rigs and will commence Phase 1 of its exploration program on two Mongolian coal licences by the end of the week."http://bit.ly/H5a2VV
15b) Commences drilling http://bit.ly/HbcAWS
16) North Asia Resources (0061.HK)
16a) annual report http://bit.ly/H5a2VX
16b) North Asia Resources said it is in contemplation of entering into a memorandum of understanding to give a binding mutually exclusive period of 30 days for further negotiation of the terms and conditions of the possible acquisition of a Shanxi coking coal resources. http://bit.ly/H5a2VZ
17) Undur Tolgoi (UTM.V) one of the new board members announced last week recuses himself due to conflict of interest and is replace by the person occupying the board seat prior. http://mwne.ws/H5a3cd
18) Altan Rio (AMO.V) Completes Drilling Program in Mongolia with Strong Results and Announces the Commencement of Drilling at Khavchuu Projecthttp://bit.ly/H5a1kQ
19) Winsway (1733.HK) Annual Results for 2011 http://bit.ly/H5a1B6
21a) Mogi: "Japan imported 19.1K tonnes of coking coal from Mongolia in February." (Reuters) TABLE-Japan's Feb coking coal imports by source.http://reut.rs/H5a1Ba
21b) B. Byambasaikhan: We will use electrical cables under the ocean to export electric power to Japan
22a) Jack Lifton weighs in on China's developing Rare Earth Association (to be launched next month) by highlighting relevant section from a China Daily article in red and then writing additional commentary on the article. Mongolia has undeveloped rare earth resources and this a sector long-term relevant to the country. http://bit.ly/H6NQhZ (hat tip to u4eah for the link)
22b) Will The Real Chinese PMI (Purchasing Manger's Index) Please Stand Up?http://bit.ly/H5a3cm
22c) An analysis of China's recent political goings-on http://bit.ly/H5a1Bb
23) "Mongolia could be the fastest growing economy in the world this year, with gross domestic product expanding 20 percent, according to Alisher Ali, Managing Partner at Silk Road Management." Mr. Alisher Ali is also the man at the top of Eurasia Capital brokerage. http://bit.ly/HbcAWZ
24) Real inflation worry. "WAGES LOW, YET MEAT COSTS SET TO SOAR TO US PRICE LEVELS" Meat is such an important staple of the Mongolia diet they keep a strategic national meat reserve. http://bit.ly/HbcDSo
25) Article about mining bring difficult inflation, destroying Mongolia's nature and bringing uncontrollable inflation. Eurasianet's Pearly Jacob: http://bit.ly/H5a1Bd
26) Cemnet Cement Review makes a bullish argument for Mongolia and cites APIP's Central Asia Cement and R.E.M.'s Christopher De Gruben before the article gets to subscription required territory: http://bit.ly/HbcBde
27) "Urgent action is needed to support Mongolia's reindeer herders and protect them from unregulated mining, logging, water pollution and climate change, among other threats, according to a report by the UN environment agency, released today." http://bit.ly/H5a3cq;Cr1=
28) "The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) of Mongolia along with the National Disaster Management Agency organized the "Protection and Evacuation Actions During Earthquake Damage" on March 22nd."http://bit.ly/HbcBdh-
29 ) Germany:
29a) President of Mongolia on state visit to Germany. Negotiations on cooperation agreements between the two countries during this visit.http://bit.ly/H5a3cu
29b) As Mongolia booms, Germany wants a slice of the cake (Deutsche Welle)http://bit.ly/HbcBdm
29c) "the 10th Mongolian-German Forum organized by the center-right Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Berlin agreed on Wednesday, March 28, 2012, current cooperation between the two countries in terms of natural resources is currently at a very low level indeed. However, what they all hailed was the potential."http://bit.ly/HbcDSs
30) Gold backing?:
30a) Simon Black, Sovereign Man, makes a bizarre case that Mongolia could eventually back its currency with gold even though its only 5% of its reserves currently. [Some people read Simon's newsletters daily; I file them without reading them almost daily.] http://read.bi/H5a1Bi
30b) Frontier Securities puts out a research note that thinks Simon will be proved right, if you count, "There are estimates that in line with this trend in over next coming years Mongolia's gold holdings will back 10% to 25% of the tugrik money supply," as an endorsement. http://bit.ly/HbcBdo
31) "The Embassy of Mongolia in Washington, DC this week hosted the inaugural gathering of the Mongolian-American Investment Consortium (MAIC), whose goal is to leverage Western experience and capital to develop high potential business opportunities in Mongolia" . http://bit.ly/HbcBdq (website of organization - still under construction: http://bit.ly/H5a1Bj)
32) Registering now for "MONGOLIAN MINING DIRECTORY-2013" March 26 (http://www.mining.mn) "MONGOLIAN MINING DIRECTORY -2013" which provides information database for Mining companies, investors, suppliers, service companies, government and non government organizations will be published for the fourth year to commemorate 90th year anniversary of Mongolian Mining industry. The MMD is distributed free of charges through international and domestic mining companies, international conferences and exhibition, embassy offices in Mongolia and foreign countries to investors. We welcome everybody who is interested in advertising their products and services in "MONGOLIAN MINING DIRECTORY -2013" to Mongolian mining industry participants. For more information please visit: http://www.mining.mn or http://bit.ly/H5a3sM or call us at +976-70115590.
33) Upcoming conference schedule for September:
33a) Discover Mongolia 2012, Sept 8 - 10, 2012… dates up… registration forms not loaded onto site yet: http://bit.ly/H5a1Bl
33c) Building & Construction Mongolia 2012, Sept 5-7, 2012, booking:http://bit.ly/HbcBdx and flyer: see Mining Mongolia (they are being held together)
33d) Know about an upcoming Mongolia related conference? Let me know… I'll work on building an annual calendar.
2 Apr, 09:13 PMReplyDelete CommentLike2
Ivanhoe (IVN) share price getting pummeled the last few days on the news http://tinyurl.com/7mg... (down 8% on the day at 11:30am NY time Tuesday)
3 Apr, 11:40 AMReplyDelete CommentLike2
Latest thoughts on SouthGobi....
There are 2 main points of confusion about this proposed deal. However, one key thing to understand through all the confusion is that Ivanhoe struck this deal, not SouthGobi. The biggest question is, why is all or a large chunk of IVN's 57.6% block of SGQ shares likely to trade at just $8.48???
As I said earlier IVN needed the money.... Further to that point, even though IVN had other non-bidding indications of interest, it appears that none of the prospective buyers was prepared to a) move fast enough for IVN or b) pay 100% cash, (clearly an essential factor for IVN)
Confusion # 2, In the announcement it was stated that 9 senior SGQ execs would be retained by CHALCO as consultants. As per the press release, "Services would be retained for 12 months from the termination of their employment...." This language caused some investors to think that senior members of SGQ were being terminated or were going to resign, which is not the case. CHALCO is essentially paying retention bonuses so that key execs won't leave....
Investors are not happy, the stock closed in Toronto at $7.52, an 11% discount to the proposed tender price. While I understand the sticker shock of the $8.48 and I understand that there's an element of investor fatigue, I don't understand why an investor would want to sell below $8.48 per share.
Yes, investors had hoped for a 100% takeout of SGQ in the next 6-9 months at a price $2-$3 above $8.48. Instead, many now feel that it will take 9-12 months for the stock to reach $10, and that's assuming that SGQ executes well going forward.
Having said that, this deal is still a lot better than nothing.
1) Downside on the stock is limited, 2) SGQ is obtaining concrete, tangible value through it's Cooperation Agreement with CHALCO. By the time this deal closes, CHALCO will be committed to buy up to 100% of SGQ's output for all of 2013 and probably for 3 qtrs of 2014. This means that SGQ can produce as much as it wants in 2013-14 and sell it at market prices. Even if margins are lower on the extra coal SGQ sells, the absolute amount of margin will be higher.
I believe that SGQ could sell as much as 8mm tonnes of semi-soft coking coal from it's Ovoot Tolgoi surface mine operations in 2013-14. That's 1.0mm additional tonnes than I thought before the CHALCO news.
Assuming a $50 margin on the incremental 1mm tonnes, that equates to $250mm of incremental Enterprise Value, or a bit more than $1.00 per share.
I will stop it here. I think this news will take time to digest and that some investors are going to sell SGQ shares and move on. Although I hesitate to say it, given that I've been a cheerleader of SGQ stock for the past year, I think the bull case on SGQ is that CHALCO buys out the non-tendering shares of SGQ in 12-18 months at a price 20%-30% premium to the $8.48 tender price, which equates to $10-$11 per share.
3 Apr, 12:41 AMReplyDelete CommentLike3
Thank you for all that color Peter.
SouthGobi (1878.HK) closed down 3.39% to HK$58.45 last night.
For sector comparison, Mongolian Mining Corporation (0975.HK) closed down 2.84% to HK$7.19 last night.
The coal sector is not liked by the market these days generically.
From my few hours watching SouthGobi trade the last few nights, there seems to be plenty of buying at 58 and any dip below, and plenty of selling at 61 and any nudge above. (Deal price should be about 66 in HK$.)
Note: For my personal account, I bought the shares for a quick flip. It did not work. I will be out of SouthGobi by the end of the week. I may buy SouthGobi again at a later date, at a higher or lower price, after visiting with, and researching the company more. I think the share price should reflect the price of the deal, but it does not. The funds I used for the SouthGobi quick flip were earmarked for other obligations that they must now be used for.
3 Apr, 09:39 AMReplyDelete CommentLike3
A corrected version just posted of Aluminum Corporation Of China, Coking Coal, The Gobi Desert, And An Investment Dust-Uphttp://bit.ly/HSZziv
(about Chinalco/SouthGobi/Iva... deal)
Information is different than the original.
4 Apr, 07:21 AMReplyDelete CommentLike2
The University of British Columbia offers studies of Mongolia's resources, policies and cultural attributes as part of its Inner Asian program.
I would imagine that more Canadians are keen to Mongolia's potential by now.
3 Apr, 12:48 AMReplyDelete CommentLike2
This is great VB. If any of the university-age readers from Mongolia or elsewhere contact University of British Columbia about their range of programs, please let us know what you think after contacting the school.
3 Apr, 09:41 AMReplyDelete CommentLike2
Mongolia as an investment destination is catching on with more articles about it.
I think that Robert Hallberg's view of it as Wild West investing has some validity. Stakes are high with resource investing and a lot of things could happen to set off some boom scenarios in resource- based economies.
Europeans and Eastern Seaboarders had a similar view of the Wild West of Western American investing back in the nineteenth century for similar reasons. Their investing efforts turned out to be profitable for several decades, mostly from 1877 to 1929 with interruptions.
3 Apr, 04:14 PMReplyDelete CommentLike1