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Spy Will Be Bearish In The Coming Weeks

Based upon my technical analysis, and the recent strong bearish reversal in the recent days, I believe the S&P 500 will be heading to the 1450 area in the coming weeks. I have attached a weekly chart with my channel drawn. In the chart you will notice a dominant trend to the upside has been formed since the end of 2011. Thus far, the price action has respected these boundaries. I would like to point out that the S&P tested this boundary last week by poking above the trend line and hitting 1530. Since moving above the trend line, the S&P has been hit hard with heavy selling. It is important to note that the action to the upside has been on low volume, while this recent sell off has been met with strong and above average volume. This tells me that the market wants to go down. As of now the target of this move will be the bottom of the trend line at 1450. Although it is hard to pick a specific timeframe, prior move down within this channel has taken a total of 9-10 weeks. Therefore we can expect a similar time frame, perhaps even a bit quicker to within the next 6-8 weeks. Please take notice of the RSI and slow stochastic. Notice how these are also at their resistance lines, and have also been respecting their trend lines. It will be important to keep an eye on not only the price action but the indicators as well as these can give early warning signs of a reversal, or stronger than expected sell offs based on divergence in these indicators.

Disclosure: I am short SPY.