Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

IBM has Watson and I have Warren A.I. for Microsoft Windows

IBM has Watson and I have Warren A.I. for Microsoft Windows

I am trying to get some attention for this A.I. software project called Warren AI. Then, it might get some feedback/response from Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer, or Warren Buffett.

As you may know, Monday, tomorrow, the TV game show "Jeopardy!" will feature the first software/computer contestant. It is a supercomputer program with multiple reference databases that is programmed to answer questions in different categories. Well, IBM has Watson, and I have Warren A.I. for Windows. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzBKgu-Qt0c

Warren A.I. for Windows was built using Microsoft's Visual Basic. And, it runs on my desktop pc and laptop pc. I would love to test it on a Windows-7 tablet. Perhaps you can make this happen.

On the desktop, the text-to-speech voice using ScanSoft Tom on Vista works beautifully. The laptop XP version reverts back to the robotic sounding Microsoft Sam voice. So, a little help in this area is greatly appreciated. Perhaps they can develop a voice that is a hybrid of both ScanSoft's Tom and Mr. Buffett.

This A.I. software for Windows is pseudo-smart in a very narrow area of "value investing philosophy." The knowledge base is based on Buffett's Letters to BRK shareholders. I hope to get it running on a Windows-7 tablet soon. And, the video clip link is pasted below. Ideally, Microsoft Research could enhance and improve its probabilistic logic flow and teaching capabilities.
 

Here is a text sample of the output:

WARREN: Please type your name first. . Then, you may ask me questions or click on a keyword. If you wish to test this software's smarts, type in the words "teach me."

BUD: Bud

WARREN: How do you do Bud, I'm Warren. How can I help you?

BUD: What is value investing?

WARREN: We define intrinsic value as the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. Anyone calculating intrinsic value necessarily comes up with a highly subjective figure that will change both as estimates of future cash flows are revised and as interest rates move.

BUD: Can you tell me more?

WARREN: Bud , What does that suggest to you?

BUD:

WARREN: Bud , Can you clarify that a bit?

BUD: teach

WARREN: Ok Bud, let's play, which filter are you thinking about, Type U for Understanding, SCA for Sustainable Competitive Advantage, ATM for Able and Trustworthy Management, or MOS for Margin of Safety.

BUD: mos

WARREN: Maximizing the results of a wonderful business requires management and focus. We do not wish to join with managers who lack admirable qualities, no matter how attractive the prospects of their business. We've never succeeded in making a good deal with a bad person. When buying companies or common stocks, we look for first,class businesses accompanied by first,class managements. That leads right into a related lesson, Good jockeys will do well on good horses, but not on brokendown nags.For the great majority of companies selling commodity products, a depressing equation of business economics prevails, persistent overcapacity without administered prices or costs equals poor profitability.

BUD: Story

WARREN: Ben Graham told a story 40 years ago that illustrates why investment professionals behave as they do, An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by Saint Peter. Youre qualified for residence, said Saint Peter, but, as you can see, the compound reserved for oil men is packed. Theres no way to squeeze you in. After thinking a moment, the prospector asked if he might say just four words to the present occupants.That seemed harmless to Staint Peter, so the prospector cupped his hands and yelled, Oil discovered in hell. Immediately the gate to the compound opened and all of the oil men marched out to head for the nether regions. Impressed, Saint Peter invited the prospector to move in and make himself comfortable. The prospector paused. No, he said, I think Ill go along with the rest of the boys. There might be some truth to that rumor after all.

BUD: MarginOfSafety

WARREN: Today's price levels, though, have materially eroded the "margin of safety" that Ben Graham identified as the cornerstone of intelligent investing.

BUD: Key

WARREN: If you are right about a business whose value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand and enduring, the payoff is the same as if you had correctly analyzed an investment alternative characterized by constantly shifting and complex variables.

BUD: Formula

WARREN: We believe that our formula, the purchase at sensible prices of businesses that have good underlying economics and are run by honest and able people, is certain to produce reasonable success.

 

Well... You get the idea. Stay Tuned. Here is the teaser on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzBKgu-Qt0c


Bud Labitan
www.frips.com