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A Value Guy looks at Jacobs Engineering Group Inc (JEC)

|Includes: Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (JEC)

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
5/6/2010 
 
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. is a technical professional services firm in the United States. It provides a range of technical, professional, and construction services to industrial, commercial, and governmental clients globally. It provides four categories of services, including project services, which include engineering, design, architectural, and similar services; process, scientific and systems consulting services, which includes services performed in connection with a range of scientific testing, analysis, and consulting activities; construction services, which encompasses construction services, as well as modular construction activities, and includes direct-hire construction and construction management services, and operations and maintenance services, which includes services performed in connection with operating facilities on behalf of clients, as well as services involving process plant maintenance. In February 2010, the Company acquired Jordan, Jones and Goulding, Inc

Does JEC make for an intelligent investment or intelligent speculation today?

Starting with a base estimate of annual Free Cash Flow at a value of approximately $400,000,000 and the number of shares outstanding at 125,000,000 shares; we used an assumed FCF annual growth of 11 percent for the first 10 years and assume zero growth from years 11 to 15.  Review the Free Cash Flow record here:

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/CashFlowRatios10.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=JEC

The resulting estimated intrinsic value per share (discounted back to the present) is approximately $65.2.

  Market Price = $44.27
  Intrinsic Value = $65.2  (estimated)
  Debt/Equity ratio = .03
  Price To Value (P/V) ratio = .68  and the estimated bargain = 32. percent.

Before we make a purchase, we must decide ( filter #1 ) if JEC is a high quality business with good economics. Does JEC have ( filter #2 ) enduring competitive advantages, and does JEC have ( filter #3 ) honest and able management.

The current price/earnings ratio = 17.6
It 's current return on capital = 10.68
Using a debt to equity ratio of .03, JEC shows a 5-year average return on equity = 16.9

Some industries have higher ROE because they require no assets, such as consulting firms. Other industries require large infrastructure builds before they generate a penny of profit, such as oil refiners. Generally, capital-intensive businesses have higher barriers to entry, which limit competition. But, high-ROE firms with small asset bases have lower barriers to entry. Thus, such firms face more business risk because competitors can replicate their success without having to obtain much outside funding.

Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing; only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long-term market value. In the case of a low-return business requiring incremental funds, growth hurts the investor. The wonderful companies sustain a competitive advantage, produce free cash flow, and use debt wisely.

Does JEC make for an intelligent investment or speculation today? Time is said to be the friend of the wonderful company and the enemy of the mediocre one. Before making an investment decision, seek understanding about the company, its products, and its sustainable competitive advantages over competitors. Next, look for able and trustworthy managers who are focused more on value than just growth. Finally ask: Is there a bargain relative to its intrinsic value per share today?

Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misapraised. In terms of Opportunity Cost, is JEC the best place to invest our money today?

TIME FORWARD PROJECTION:

How will JEC compete going forward? Keep in mind that a financial report like this is a reflection of the past and present. It may be used to project a future, but it may not account for factors yet unseen. Therefore, pay attention to competitive and market factors that may affect changes in profitability.

In summary, using a debt to equity ratio of .03, JEC shows a 5-year average return on equity = 16.9 . Based on a holding and compounding period of 10 years, and a purchase price bargain of 32. percent, and a relative FCF growth of 11 percent, then the estimated effective annual yield on this investment may be greater than 14.9 %.

Going forward, are there any tranformational catalysts or condition indicators imaginable on the horizon?

As always, I appreciate hearing your views,

Bud Labitan
Author of the new book 'Price To Value'
http://www.amazon.com/Price-Value-Bud-Labitan/dp/0557317185

Author of 'The Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger'
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0615241298

Labitan Partners
budlabitan@ aol.com
www.frips.com

 



Disclosure: no positions