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UPDATE: ACTUAL 10YR YIELD AND S&P 500 2Q CHANGE VS. RISK ON - RISK OFF MODELS - 1/02/2016

Current Status of Models and Assets (1/02/2016), see chart above:

Click on the link to update chart.

product.datastream.com/DSCharting/gatewa...

Models' Forecasts: Treasury yields and S&P 500 are still on brief upticks as expected (see 19/01/2016 Update), and could continue with the countertrend moves higher which may last for another two more weeks (optimal: until February 18). However, both yields and the stockmarkets may resume falling thereafter until the week of March 22 2016.

Investment implications: The over-all risk-off mode continues until perhaps 3rd week of March (optimal: until March 22). After that a sharp recovery for yields and SPY over subsequent weeks, as a broad risk-on mode takes over, as suggested by the RO-RO models.

The favored technical outlook for SPY:

product.datastream.com/DSCharting/gatewa...

The favored technical outlook for the US 10yr bond yield:

product.datastream.com/DSCharting/gatewa...

Click on the links to update the charts.

NOTE: This blog is merely an OPINION of the author, is NOT an INVESTMENT ADVICE, and does NOT constitute a SOLICITATION for business.

USE THE INFORMATION HEREIN AT YOUR OWN RISK. THE AUTHOR IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES YOU MAY INCUR AS A RESULT OF INVESTING OR TRADING USING THE INFORMATION FROM THIS BLOG.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.