Market Report/Chat Comments (July 21, 2020): Today, Seasonal Long Positions Were Closed; The Day's Total Haul Was $4.658 Million In Equities And Gold Trades

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robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:17 AM

GOOD MORNING ASIA / GOOD EVENING USA

July 21, 2020

Here is he status of the models, after NY close, July 20

SPX

NDX

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:42 AM

Historically, we should be expecting some consolidation before a final surge higher to some sort of seasonal peak going into month end.

We see that from other model works too

DOW, below

NDX

SPX

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:51 AM

As I said yesterday, we are now in the end-game phase of the long seasonal trades.

Therefore it is imperative that we should be pushing up the levels where we have the short hedges, which have been GTC for a few days now,

For NQ trades, I would like to raise the short hedges at circa 10,700, just below the top of Wave 1 high of 10,760

And once we see a larger correction which retraces the current straight-line rally in NQ, we will raise those hedge levels further. We still intend to milk this final rally, so we will reinstate long trades that are exited. We are therefore offloading some more trades that are showing reasonable profits.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:57 AM

XXX boys tell me they have to put this trade in the joint acct so they can slowly offload this trade on the market, so as not to push the market down quickly.

_all PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS OF NQU0 FOR ALL FUNDS, XXX DISCRETION._

*NQU0 -- DONE AT 10,994.75 SOLD 144 CONTRACTS NQU0 FOR ALL FUNDS.*

littletiger101Jul 21, 2020 5:05 AM

correct me if my understanding is wrong, it seems you would reinstate long trades in the next few days if there is any consolidation/minor correction.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:05 AM

littletiger101 -- THAT IS THE PLAN

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:13 AM

that's a nice $822K pickup. What is very satisfying about exiting these trades (including last night's NQ exit trade) was the fact that these were all underwater after last week's "flash crash".

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:14 AM

That done, we can start raising the short hedges.

_all PAM SELLS 432 CONTRACTS NQU0 AT BREACH OF 10,680 (SHORT HEDGE) FOR ALL FUNDS, GTC._

god599Jul 21, 2020 5:26 AM

Robert just to make sure, this NQ hedge is a future stop order when NQ goes below 10,680. correct?

robert.p.balanJul 21, 2020 5:28 AM

Yes 599

god599Jul 21, 2020 5:28 AM

thx Rb. Amazing trades so far!

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:23 AM

Now that we are less top heavy with the offloaded NQ longs, we look to exit some of the ES profitable trades at higher levels.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:27 AM

_all PAM SELLS 288 CONTRACTS ESU0 AT 3265 LIMIT OR BETTER, FOR ALL FUNDS_

Thanks a lot god599 -- we are in this very happy circumstance because we did not panic during the flash crash last week, as Sri pointed out.

god599Jul 21, 2020 5:36 AM

Can't agree more. I have weak hands and I used to panic sell, but not anymore. I am just amazed by your tenacity, confidence, perseverance and most importantly altruism. You just seem to derive happiness by seeing others succeed. Out of the world!

robert.p.balanJul 21, 2020 5:40 AM

Thanks god599 -- Just paying back the favors that I received from very good people earlier in my life. I was recipient of altruism as well that changed my life.

god599Jul 21, 2020 5:45 AM

very inspiring. yw

martin.k11Jul 21, 2020 5:44 AM

Well if the yields rally at least a bit over the next day or two as you expect, I would think YM / RTY respond in kind (vs the long duration / growth trade in NQ with low yields) right?

martin.k11Jul 21, 2020 5:35 AM

Amazing. I was underweight NQ, so staying long for now without taking profits, with hedge you just put on. Learning so much here in real time. You really squeeze a profit out of everything somehow... Insane

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:36 AM

Thanks martin.k11 -- now, if we can just replicate that "magic" with the dang underachievers, YM and RTY.

martin.k11Jul 21, 2020 5:44 AM

Well if the yields rally at least a bit over the next day or two as you expect, I would think YM / RTY respond in kind (vs the long duration / growth trade in NQ with low yields) right?

robert.p.balanJul 21, 2020 5:46 AM

That is why I am persevering with these market dogs. Bu we shall see,

martin.k11Jul 21, 2020 5:41 AM

I calculated Robert before you having exited the 288 NQ longs tonight (ignoring the very few de minimus old stragglers), PAM was at just over 2000 contracts, worth $340MM notional, unhedged. It really takes enormous knowledge and conviction to carry this pure directional leverage in my eyes, especially this close to the (expected) turning point. And here I am so cautious not even getting to 2x leverage...

RM13Jul 21, 2020 6:25 AM

Cojones..

gwizz1Jul 21, 2020 5:53 AM

I made a mistake selling NQ too early, and was hoping for some feedback.

We bought this tranche of NQ on 14 July.

"all PAM BUYS 144 CONTRACTS OF NQ FOR ALL FUNDS. AT DCC PRICING DISCRETION (THIN MARKETS).

NQU0 - DONE AT 10,645 BOUGHT 144 CONTRACTS OF NQU0 FOR ALL FUNDS."

Then Robert advised us that we would rotate out of NQ and put in a sell at 10,780.

"The 10yr yield is setting a test of the .6628 previous resistance -- breach of .6630 should eventually yield 0.7+ targets.

Failure of the probe of .6630 suggests we could see 0.6% levels again.

PAM will now start rotating out of the predominantly NQ position.

all PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS NQU0 AT 10,780 FOR ALL FUNDS."

We rode this down and I loaded up on other contracts, but NQ didn't revisit 10,780 levels until yesterday.

I had a GTC order for NQ to sell at 10,780, but Robert held it past that level.

What did I miss?

joshweirJul 21, 2020 5:54 AM

I did exactly the same thing

perhaps if Robert doesnt stipulate GTC it is good for day

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:57 AM

That was a day order, not GTC. Learn to distinguish which ones. We always remind the community that orders are GTC, or when we are cancelling GTC orders. We do nothing of that sort with day orders.

GTC orders are always appended with GTC. And we cancel them explicitly when the market tenor has made those orders inappropriate.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:25 AM

martin.k11 "I calculated Robert before you having exited the 288 NQ longs tonight" -- very kind of you. This is where having individual models of liquidity factors versus asset price really becomes useful. Aggregated models tell me we should have exited yesterday. But other models show we still have leeway of several days (possibly) before the market keels over. I took a judgment call, that's all. My gut was also for keeping the long trade on, for longer. As for the notional amount being on trade, I had billions at risk when I was an investment bank prop trader, so PAMs traded amounts do not present any real mental road bump. Thanks again.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:29 AM

Thanks Rafa. Staying late with the markets tonight, eh?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:34 AM

OK guys, our exit trade for ES longs will probably execute in Europe trade, and the pullback we are looking for may happen in pre-NY trade.

Time to hit the sack for a little longer, then back in a few hours. GN all.

RM13Jul 21, 2020 6:35 AM

I am up late into the night, finishing other things. Great trading Robert, beautiful to see this upwards move in NQ..

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:15 AM

GOOD MORNING EUROPE / GOOD EVENING WEST COAST

O

ur exit level for the long ESU0 trades was hit in early Europe trade.

*ESU0 -- DONE AT BETTER 3266 SOLD 288 CONTRACTS ESU0 FOR ALL FUNDS.*

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:41 AM

We picked up $928.80K on those two scalper trades.

Scott007Jul 21, 2020 10:45 AM

RB gold beautiful, equity stellar.... Only trade not booming yet is our short bonds but that chart looks like it's ready. Thoughts on being move aggressive there?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:47 AM

The 10yr yield is coiled like a snake ready to strike higher. Patience, my friend -- we will get there. And that is what will punctuate the rally in equities. Actually, the positive yield situation is what is keeping me still bullish on equity futures.

So this is how the long seasonals stack up at this point:

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:54 AM

Note that all the residual long seasonal trades are all showing profits, except for the YM which is still marginally underwater. So will now put trailing stops to keep most of the profits. And if the pullback which we expect anytime does show up, then we choose which instrument to use for the final milk run higher.

It will likely be NQ or ES.

_all PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR NQU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 432 CONTRACTS NQU0 AT BREACH OF 11,000, FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC._

_all PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR RTYU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS RTYU0 AT BREACH OF 1470, FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC._

_all PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR YMU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS YMU0 AT BREACH OF 26650, FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC_

_all PAM CANCELS ALL GTC ORDERS PERTAINING TO SHORT HEDGES FOR NQU0, AS THESE ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY, AND HAVE BEEN SUPPLANTED BY THE TRAILING STOPS._

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 11:59 AM

PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR YMU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS YMU0 AT BREACH OF 26650, FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC

MODIFY TO:

all PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR YMU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS YMU0 AT BREACH OF 26650,

_OR AT 26850 LIMIT OR BETTER (BREAKEVEN), FOR ALL FUNDS, OCO, GTC._

I don't want these underachievers to bog us down.

Spot Gold (XAU) is more exuberant than GCQ0 -- nonetheless, it is also time to put up trailing stops to rationalize the long gold trade.

But before that, we turn paper gold into green cash .. we offload some of the profitable gold trades.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 12:53 PM

_all PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS GCQ0 FOR ALL FUNDS, DCC DISCRETION._

*GCQ0 -- DONE AT 1829.90 SOLD 144 GCQ0 CONTRACTS FOR ALL FUNDS.*

martin.k11Jul 21, 2020 12:57 PM

Good morning Robert. So you are just offloading 1/3 of GC to lock in profits, but still letting the other 288 GC ride to your expected ca. 1840 top, right ? Thanks

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 1:00 PM

Yes martin -- tenet of the 4-D process. Keep something in the pocket when things get really better -- because it may not last.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 1:09 PM

Not too shabby -- for a gold scalper. Picked up $358.5K right there.

Pick up $200K here, and $300K there -- soon it will add up to real money.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 1:13 PM

All these small pickings indeed have added up to something. PAM is now up $11.493 million from July 1 to July 21.

We should at least equal (even surpass) the $14.079 June performance -- which was historic for us.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 1:17 PM

All we need is for the 10yr yield to deliver its promise of near 0.7% surge.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 1:52 PM

_all PAM SELLS 288 CONTRACTS GQQ0 TO HEDGE LONG GOLD POSITIONS, AT BREACH OF 1816, FOR ALL FUNDS, GTC._

PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR RTYU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS RTYU0 AT BREACH OF 1470, FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC.

MODIFY THIS TO:

_all PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR RTYU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS RTYU0 AT BREACH OF 1475 (FROM 1470), FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC._

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 2:04 PM

PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR NQU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 432 CONTRACTS NQU0 AT BREACH OF 11,000, FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC.

MODIFY THIS TO:

all PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR NQU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 432 CONTRACTS NQU0 AT BREACH OF 11,000,

_OR AT 11,150 LIMIT OR BETTER, OCO, GTC._

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 2:17 PM

Gold going NUTS! Still keeping its one-day lagged covariance with NQ.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 2:25 PM

PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR RTYU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS RTYU0 AT BREACH OF 1475 (FROM 1470), FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC.

MODIFY THIS TO:

all PAM PUTS A TRAILING STOP FOR RTYU0 LONGS. PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS RTYU0 AT BREACH OF 1475 FOR ALL FUNDS. GTC.

_OR, PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS RTYU0 AT BREACH OF 1490 LIMIT OR BETTER, OCO, GTC, FOR ALL FUNDS._

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 2:36 PM

We start offloading long gold as well, trade by trade.

all PAM SELLS 144 OF GCQ0 AT 1848 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR DOWNWARD BREACH OF 1837, OCO -- FOR ALL FUNDS.

flytightJul 21, 2020 2:41 PM

Nice!

Spot hits $1840. You called it Robert.

freer7Jul 21, 2020 2:44 PM

Best gold trader in Switzerland, if not the world!

jdefpJul 21, 2020 2:58 PM

Good afternoon, Robert. What is your plan for TN shorts at this point? Are you still holding out for 0.7% on the 10yr?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 3:01 PM

Nice triangle set up- a yield rally will ignite another round of equity futures rally.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 3:27 PM

*NQU0 -- DONE AT 10998,35 SOLD 432 CONTRACTS NQU0 FOR ALL FUNDS.*

bluenovaJul 21, 2020 3:39 PM

Robert, care to venture an educated guess as to time frame of a potential yield rally?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 3:42 PM

May dip back to 0.6 and then should start higher from there. Equities pullback and then rally with it, is my guess.

henry.riveraJul 21, 2020 3:43 PM

robert.p.balan

Robert, are you waiting for some key level to buy back long positions? or

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 3:43 PM

Yes Henry waiting for the yield to dip back to 0.6

PAM OUT OF ALL NQ LONG HEDGES (REMEMBER: ALL THE LONG TRADES JUST OFFLOADED WERE PREVIOUSLY HEDGES).

henry.riveraJul 21, 2020 3:47 PM

thanks Robert.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 3:51 PM

Rotation taking place -- NQ down, RTY and YM up!

jking3683Jul 21, 2020 3:51 PM

robert.p.balan Do you think RTY has further to go up given its current momentum?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 3:53 PM

No idea Mr. King. Looking at this rotation with awe.

*GCU0 -- DONE AT 1836.65 SOLD 144 GCQ0 FOR ALL FUNDS.*

*RTYU0 -- DONE AT BETTER SOLD 144 RTYU0 AT 1491.35 FOR ALL FUNDS*

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:04 PM

*YMU0 -- DONE AT 26850 (BREAKEVEN), SOLD 144 YMU0 AT BREAKEVEN, FOR ALL FUNDS*

PAM HAS COMPLETELY OFFLOADED ALL LONG HEDGES.

NOW TO LOOK FOR LEVELS TO DO SOME HEAVY DUTY LONG SCALPING

henry.riveraJul 21, 2020 4:09 PM

Amazing.!

Good calls robert.p.balan . Thanks for all!

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:11 PM

Thanks Henry! Boy that was fun, taking profits.

sparketJul 21, 2020 4:19 PM

Robert trading with you is always a blast. Especially on days like today!!

flamarkJul 21, 2020 4:11 PM

Very nice Robert!

faldonJul 21, 2020 4:12 PM

Wave 3 seems to have topped. Is 10850 a reasonable target for wave 4 to enter the long scalps or you will decide solely based on the 10y at 0.6?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:14 PM

Scott007Jul 21, 2020 4:15 PM

The inverse of this chart looks just as enticing

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:16 PM

You're right Scotty.

PAM has one more 144-contract tranche left in GCQ0

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:20 PM

Thanks sparket -- won't trade it for any other job in the world!

Scott007Jul 21, 2020 4:31 PM

I wouldn't call it a job.... It's an adventure!!!

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:57 PM

That was some adventure Scotty -- very profitable too. Today, we made some record of sort, eclipsing the previous $3.620 million loot made on July 2.

Today the haul is $3,704,400.00 in equities, and $954,000.00 in gold - -- $4,658,400.00 in total.

And we are not done with the gold longs yet -- still another 144 contracts to be offloaded, if we see higher levels today.

TimK123Jul 21, 2020 4:58 PM

Awesome, really exciting day!

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:58 PM

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 4:58 PM

vjapnJul 21, 2020 4:59 PM

Robert, Incredible!!!!!!!!!!!! With regards to gold, it has lead/followed equities and bonds and sometimes such drifts on it own. That being said, do you expect it to fall with equities over the next couple of months or could gold rocket higher regardless of equities?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:02 PM

vjapn -- the last time equities got hammered, gold got hammered as well. The bias is to the downside for gold with the Fed becoming stingy, and we have proved beyond doubt that gold rises with QE because QE depresses the US Dollar. And vice versa.

Alan.LongbonJul 21, 2020 5:03 PM

The 10yr is going to spike tomorrow when SS payments from the Fedgov hit BR.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:04 PM

I was just going to point out that relationship with the TCB (inverse relationship with BR).

all PAM BUYS 144 CONTRACTS ESU0 AT 3255 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR AT BREACH OF 3272, OCO. -- FOR ALL FUNDS

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:20 PM

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 5:26 PM

Sharply rising TCB will tend to pull up the 10yry yield as well.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:01 PM

Wow NQ is getting hammered. Aren't you guys glad we are no longer long NQ?

ippy04Jul 21, 2020 6:01 PM

Yes... Just hit the .382 retrace btw

jking3683Jul 21, 2020 6:02 PM

Absolutely amazed by your timing in your trades robert.p.balan ! Simply the best!

sri2020Jul 21, 2020 6:02 PM

Robert .. you are the best.. I dont think twice, when I see sell orders from you.

sirlongJul 21, 2020 6:02 PM

Perfect timing. Thanks!

acetaiaJul 21, 2020 6:03 PM

robert you have a reentry for nq?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:08 PM

ace -- I am rethinking the re.entry for NQ or ES because the former laggards look to fall further. I will keep everyone posted.

We've made some money -- let's not act hastily that we will give it back. Not a good habit.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:16 PM

PAM BUYS 144 CONTRACTS ESU0 AT 3255 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR AT BREACH OF 3272, OCO. -- FOR ALL FUNDS

all PM CANCELS THE BUY ESU0 ORDERS AND WE WILL WAIT FOR A WHILE. WE COULD SEE ES LOWER

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:23 PM

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:24 PM

We are putting the target for the last 144-contract tranche at GCQ0 1860-65.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 6:26 PM

_all PAM SELLS 144 CONTRACTS OF GCQ0 AT 1860 LIMIT OR BETTER, FOR ALL FUNDS, GTC. _

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 8:28 PM

We will take a punt on the assumption that we have seen a bottom in yields,Look like NQ is regaining some of its mojo -- we have a choice then -- NQ or ES. The recovery of NQ looks set for a small pullback -- looking at 10890 - 10880 to initiate scalping.

_all PAM BUYS 48 CONTRACTS NQU0 AT 10,890 LIMIT OR BETTER, FOR ALL FUNDS._

_all PAM BUYS 48 CONTRACTS ESU0 AT 3260 LIMIT OR BETTER, FOR ALL FUNDS._

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 9:52 PM

*NQU0 -- DONE AT 10,889.80 BOUGHT 48 CONTRACTS OF NQU0 FOR ALL FUNDS.*

*ESU0 -- DONE AT 3259.72 BOUGHT 48 CONTRACTS OF ESU0 FOR ALL FUNDS. *

bogeygolfJul 21, 2020 10:10 PM

RB, can you do a recap. how did you know yesterday to close out NQ at 4pm and then switch to scalping on pullbacks today?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:18 PM

bogeygolf

Two things bogey.

1. At the top of the NQ at 4 pm, the most drastic bearish EWP I could find was this large irregular.

The most benevolent EWP schemata was this,

2. The models are showing possible toppy behavior, although temporary

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:34 PM

It was also nice to take some decent profits after having been underwater after the flash crash. That really felt good.

Scott007Jul 21, 2020 10:25 PM

Always choppy at the top. But I prefer the second chart

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:26 PM

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:29 PM

here too

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:29 PM

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:30 PM

So, prudence dictates lightening up, and changing the strategy from hold till season peak, to free-wheeling trading up or down.

That means we have to get rid of the seasonals and draw up a new grouping for scalpers galore.

I could have kept the seasonals and transition to scalping, but I wanted to keep things neat so as not to upset those that are geared up for the seasonals.

It won't make any difference to me, but it may mean a lot for those following seasonal trades.

It was also nice to take some decent profits after having been underwater after the flash crash. That really felt good.

adrsumJul 21, 2020 10:36 PM

I just feel like I am getting pointers from Michael Jordan on playing basketball!

vjapnJul 21, 2020 10:36 PM

Robert, What would get you to think that scenario 1 is in play?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:38 PM

V -- frankly, that weighed heavily on my mind, but the scenario of a yield uptick has just been bolstered by the work of Mr. Longbon -- I am feeling good about a yield rise in the short term. Therefore there is no way that scenario 1 will happen (knock on wood).

martin.k11Jul 21, 2020 10:39 PM

Based on any of the liquidity charts, looks like any longs are skating on pretty thin ice at this point right? Very nimble... What's the saying, picking up pennies in front of the steam roller? (or millions in RB's case)

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:40 PM

The steam roller gives a lot of noise -- I can always step aside.

Same thing -- the models are shouting at me now, but maybe we can squeeze just one more scalper to the upside.

vjapnJul 21, 2020 10:43 PM

Robert, does a divergence between 10 year vs 30 year mean anything to you? 10 year yield made a new low below July 14th while the 30 year did not

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:46 PM

Its the steepening of the yield curve -- our steepener trade is still making money.

timsufoJul 21, 2020 10:48 PM

Hi Robert, TLT/TN is building a nice pennant, any bias to which way it will break?

wayne_2020Jul 21, 2020 10:48 PM

To support Alan/Robert's call: 20yr bond auction tomorrow (Wed) and 10yr TIPs auction on Thu could potentially give yields another push up; plus MFST report (Wed) and AMZN (Thu). After that, markets could dip, then up again next week to the final top Robert called for (Mon-Tue) pre-FOMC.

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:49 PM

Perhaps I have to make some cautionary advice -- with scalpers, we can turn around quickly from long to short in a hearbeat. If you are not nimble and not in a position to act quickly, these forthcoming scalpers may not be for you.

adrsumJul 21, 2020 10:49 PM

I am getting ready to ride the steam roller and go downhill in August ... LOL!

IceveinJul 21, 2020 10:50 PM

trying to understand the spreadsheet... is SWING short 10-year bond futures right now?

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:51 PM

we are short the futures

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:54 PM

timsufo

Scott007Jul 21, 2020 10:55 PM

Given what RB just communicated. I only recently started trading futures-. But that stated-. Futures trade over night. If you are in etf land and we are entering a scalpers trading game you need to really Hedge or you can lose alot of money. Trust me- it has taken me a few months to make back A LOT of money( thanks to RB).

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 10:55 PM

Higher yields is what we are looking for.

IceveinJul 21, 2020 10:56 PM

inflation expectations rising temporarily it seems, LTPZ made new high while TLT did not

ippy04Jul 21, 2020 10:58 PM

Likely because DXY has fallen for 3 weeks now... will reverse around 94.8 or so imho

robert.p.balanLeaderModeratorOwnerJul 21, 2020 11:04 PM

OK folks -- have to take a quick trip to the sack -- and I will see you at the Asian trenches in a few hours. GN everyone

MARKETS CLOSED