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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here is the current status of the PAM flagship Swing Fund, which includes open and closed trades.
During the twelve months of 2020, PAM delivered phenomenal real-dollar Hedge Fund trading performance, the best at Seeking Alpha:
PAM's flagship Swing Portfolio, year-to-date (December 31, 2020) delivered $100, 181,522.77 net profit on $11,172,813 margin capital.
Year-to-date performance: 754.20%, on 888-98 win-loss trades.
December 2020 spreadsheet here:
Year to date 2020 spreadsheet here.
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JANUARY 25, 2021
GOOD AFTERNOON ASIA / GOOD EVENING WEST COAST
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 5:43 AM
No real conviction in the markets -- with yields and TN futures still mired in sideways trend.
This is keeping the theme of one more decline before further declines in TN futures (fall in yields) before a resumption of yield rise until early late month-early Feb time frame.
I got a DM over the weekend asking me how to reconcile the use of EWP during times of stimmy and QE, which was a very valid question in the light of extreme bullishness in the market.
Citi's Panic-Euphoria Index
I replied that it is not the amount of cumulative stimmy, but its change rate which matters. We have been in QE since Sept 2008, but we did not get the markets in a straight line. Anyway, we (collectively, I hope) make money on less than 3 pct of market moves, so we do not need out-of-the-ballpark hits to be successful.
One of course can stay invested all the time, but that to me is the real risk -- given the stretched valuations and possible snap back to the mean at any time. I saw an example of that during the peak of the 2000 bull market. It could happen any day. The issue is that we can not time that snap back to the mean.
That's the reason why we opted to take small bites of the market. That's also the reason why we have a high win-loss ratio because we opt for breakeven stops when we are not sure of the continuity of the short term moves. And we take profit, when we are less certain of the next move. I was also taken to task because of that (taking profits quickly), by one new member, who apparently believes that I have a crystal ball, and I can tell when a short term trend will end. That required some explanation.
What I do believe is that Buy and Hold is extremely risky in this too optimistic environment, and that we should be ready to bail at the first sign of trouble. That does not mean out of the market -- just take that mouthful, pause, and reassess.
That is why we are confident in taking large positions because we are managing the risk properly, I think. That also means constant attention to the market, so I don't mind managing my sleep sequence to several times in a day, rather than in one one single stretch. Nonetheless, we are generating profits, even when the environment is uncertain because we are content to take small bites, although with a wide mouth girth.
I find it easier to predict short term, sentiment driven moves, rather than fundamental ones, given newsflow risk. In the first place, fundamentals do not seem to matter anymore. EWP is certainly a good way of riding the sentiment ebb and flow.
This is what is driving our trading strategy, for the time being. Some members who look at the market long term are unhappy with that, and my message to them is to accept the reality that we can have a real disaster anytime. I saw that in 2000, and again in 2008. Today, it may be for the simple reason that there is no one to sell to anymore. AAII even came out with a survey which is mathematically impossible -- investors are more than 100 percent Bullish (but has already been revised). So who is going to buy and keep the MoMo going when everyone is long?
My apologies to the B&H proponents, but this is no time to take a big risk and go to sleep. When you have a sense of high market certainty, put in a large bet (reverse Martingale) and watch it -- and reel it in at the first sign of trouble. That means a lot of work -- but making real money is never easy. Otherwise, everyone is a millionaire.
Hopefully, we get a snap back to the mean sometime soon, and then from there, we can go back to being normal again. That means, smaller bets that do not boggle the mind, and doing seasonality bets again.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 6:45 AM
See you in Europe open. GN everyone.
GOOD MORNING EUROPE / GOOD EVENING WEST COAST
The 10Yr yield is again flirting with the 1.075 support -- let's see if it will do the break down this time around.
It looks like the 10yr yield will do it this time, as we also need the DXY to fall one last time and complete the large Wave 2 (or WaveB) classic irregular (green box).
And hopefully, that will make the YM decline to the 30,450/400 objective, and then a rally thereafter.
NQ completed a small five wave sequence, and should do an ABC, zigzag.
ES probably does a "running correction" -- truncated irregular. This is a harbinger of strong continuation of the trend. We will bet the 1000 contract dormant overhedge trade on ES, after all.
That's my guess (above) how RTY will do the downward correction.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 1:45 PM
Looks like Yield support finally broke down.
vjapnJan 25, 2021 1:49 PM
Robert, do you plan to reinstate any short scalpers?
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 1:58 PM
We still have the short YM -- looking for levels to reset short RTY
all PAM SELLS 288 CONTRACT RTYH1 AT 2,152 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR AT DOWNWARD BREACH OF 2146, OCO, GTC
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 2:32 PM
PAM SELLS 288 CONTRACT RTYH1 AT 2,152 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR AT DOWNWARD BREACH OF 2146, OCO,
*This order was filled.*
*RTYH1 -- DONE AT 2145.70 SOLD 288 SCALPER CONTRACTS OF RTYH1 FOR ALL FUNDS.*
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 4:49 PM
The more yields fall, the more RTY rises -- I do't think this can be sustained.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 5:18 PM
Holy mackerel, NQ -- you are supposed to be a good boy today.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 5:22 PM
Witness the power of the bond market.
Yields are getting close to a temporary base -- if you are making money, you may want to take some profits soon.
all PAM BUYS BACK 288 YMH1 AT 30,460 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR AT UPWARDS BREACH OF 30,620, OCO, GTC -- ALL FUNDS
all PAM BUYS BACK 288 RTYH1 AT 2,124 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR AT UPWARDS BREACH OF 2150, OCO, GTC -- ALL FUNDS
As I said, secure some profits, and we will look for higher levels to sell again.
Mr. TK said this is the first time he saw me deliberately take a (small) loss on the RTY. Well, considering the extreme bleeding of the RTY short position just half an hour ago, a 4 point loss is a Gain in my lexicon.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 5:48 PM
Maybe we still get a chance to break even on RTY
all PAM modifies the RTYH1 threshold at 2146 and at 2124, OCO, GTC for all funds
Trading is just like fighting in the Sandboxes -- 90 percent boredom and 10 pct terror.
PAM BUYS BACK 288 YMH1 AT 30,460 LIMIT OR BETTER, OR AT UPWARDS BREACH OF 30,620, OCO, GTC
*This order was filled.*
*YMH1 -- DONE AT 30,624 BOUGHT BACK (TO EXIT) 288 SCALPER YMH1 SHORTS -- FOR ALL FUNDS*
PAM modifies the RTYH1 threshold at 2146 and at 2124, OCO, GTC for all funds
*This order was filled.*
*RTYH1 -- DONE AT 2146.25 BOUGHT BACK (TO EXIT) 288 SCALPER RTYH1 SHORTS AT BREAKEVEN -- FOR ALL FUNDS*
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 6:05 PM
That kind of mid-course pause in the yields provide the wave 4 in the YMH1 irregular
I suspect the final fifth wave of the +C+ of this irregular will be long -- could be one of josh's guy with the long mullet, giving rise to 30,200/100 downside targets. I suspect so because every RobinHooder is salivating at the prospect of Mr. Biden's large stimmy -- but I was told by someone who understands legislative shenanigans, there is only a two week time window to pass the stimmy bill in the Senate before Mr. Trump's impeachment trial starts. Let's see if McConnell can be convinced to roll over in that short period of time.
But maybe it does not matter.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 6:33 PM
all PAM RESETS THE YMH1 288 SHORT SCALPERS AT 30,740 LIMIT OR BETTER OR AT DOWNWARDS BREACH OF 30,640, OCO, GTC -- ALL FUNDS.
We will stay away from RTY for a while.
all PAM SELLS 288 ESH1 SHORT SCALPERS AT 3825 LIMIT OR BETTER OR AT DOWNWARDS BREACH OF 3810, OCO, GTC -- ALL FUNDS.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 6:46 PM
all PAM SELLS 744 TNH1 CONTRACTS TO EXIT LONG TN SCALPERS/EXCESS LONG TN POSITIONING, AT 154-28, LIMIT OR BETTER, FOR ALL FUNDS.
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 7:02 PM
PAM SELLS 288 ESH1 SHORT SCALPERS AT 3825 LIMIT OR BETTER OR AT DOWNWARDS BREACH OF 3810, OCO, GTC
*This order was filled.*
*ESH1 -- DONE AT 3825.50 SOLD 288 CONTRACT ESH1 TO OPEN NEW SCALPER SHORTS, FOR ALL FUNDS*
PAM RESETS THE YMH1 288 SHORT SCALPERS AT 30,740 LIMIT OR BETTER OR AT DOWNWARDS BREACH OF 30,640, OCO, GTC
*This order was filled.*
*YMH1 DONE AT 30,749 SOLD 288 CONTRACT YMH1 TO OPEN NEW SCALPER SHORTS, FOR ALL FUNDS*
robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 25, 2021 10:16 PM
GN and see you later in Asia.