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January 29, 2021: Bond Yields Now Looking Beyond The GME Saga And Started To Rise; Looking For Levels To Reset Long Equity Positions

Jan. 30, 2021 7:13 AM ET4 Comments
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Asset class modeling, Macro analyst, Bonds & Equities, Currencies & Commodities

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2011

Robert P. Balan runs Predictive Analytic Models, #1-rated trading unit at Seeking Alpha. PAM trades Swiss HF funds using Federal Reserve, US Treasury, and term (money) market liquidity data flows as basis for trading decisions. He is domiciled in Zurich, Switzerland.

Robert Balan has 5 decades of experience in the financial markets. Education in Mining Engineering, Computer Science & Engineering, M.S in Quantitative Finance, and training in Economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based (Lloyds Bank Int'l) in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994).

He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today's new UBS) as head of technical research in various finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently, head of prop trading at SBC in Toronto ) from the late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research followed in late 1990s to the early 2000s. 

Robert returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich. Robert wrote FX analysis and capital markets commentary for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the early 2000s. He joined Diapason Commodities Management (CH) in Lausanne in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. 

Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which has been hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as best ever book written on the subject. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), U.S.A. 


  • There should be a small pullback in the yield providing levels to short TN. So now we wait for the right time and right level to go long equity scalpers.
  • I'm doubting if we get another downtick in the 10yr yield. For the first time in weeks, it's not leading equities, which are still falling due to the GME saga.
  • Looks like the bond market may be reading that situation as abating soon. The MOTUs and bond market makers may have decided to focus now on liquidity issues, from here.
  • After the 10Yr yield surged to new higher high for the day, it will probably pull back some, and it will not surprise me if ES and YM will make marginally lower lows still, or at least test the current lows. The equity and yield rally should resume thereafter.
  • One question -- what happens when everyone wants to monetize the sharp increase in GME share price? I am trying to understand this because once selling starts, it will bring the entire market with the flows to the drain. Hence, I am asking.


This is the latest performance of PAM's One-Contract Portfolio, with a margin capital of $100,000, making the same trades as the flagship Swing Fund, but doing consistent, one contract-trades.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here is the current status of the PAM flagship Swing Fund, which includes open and closed trades.

During the twelve months of 2020, PAM delivered phenomenal real-dollar Hedge Fund trading performance, the best at Seeking Alpha:

PAM's flagship Swing Portfolio, year-to-date (December 31, 2020) delivered $100, 181,522.77 net profit on $11,172,813 margin capital.

Year-to-date performance: 754.20%, on 888-98 win-loss trades.

December 2020 spreadsheet here:

Year to date 2020 spreadsheet here.


JANUARY 29, 2020


robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 7:16 AM

*Looks like the markets are finally going our way. Time to add a little more oomph to the short punt.*


User.12330911Jan 29, 2021 7:21 AM

Robert, do you some updated estimated charts patterns on RTY, NQ and ES? Also, are you still thinking a market top in the first to middle part of Feb. Thanks

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 7:24 AM

1233 -- We will do that. Let me have some coffee first-

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 8:16 AM

The key to the downside for equities is still the evolution of yields from here. The downside in equities not a given until/unless yields break 1.03% to the downside. We wait for more data.

Hopefully we see that when Europe opens.

See u then


robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 10:05 AM

I am starting to doubt if we will get another downtick in the 10yr yield. For the first time in recent weeks, it is not leading equities, which are still being pummeled by the GME saga. Looks like the bond market may be reading that situation as abating soon -- the MOTUs and bond market makers may have decided to focus now on liquidity issues, from here. Yields have already risen, in NY close basis (see chart below) -- the rest of the asset classes follow within 2 days. Looks like the equity markets/XBI will rise up next week (and VIX turns lower).

After the 10Yr yield surged to new higher high for the day, it will probably pull back some, and it will not surprise me if ES and YM will make marginally lower lows still, or at least test the current lows.

EWP illustrations of ES above and YM below.

But further equity declines are not being signaled by the long bond yield, and so its either we go for a minuscule profit or just go breakeven, and look for opportunities to go long instead.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 10:19 AM

The greedy thing to do is allocate a little risk/loss allowance and go for the bottom of the expected move. Or if you are risk averse, just go for breakeven.

*Meanwhile, we cancel the RTY order to go short. But if you are willing to watch this trade (as in the greedy stuff) then keep it but do not overstay short positions.




But with yields looking very firm (see chart below), on second thought, do not touch the RTY short -- we may not see new RTY lows today.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 10:42 AM

*I asked XXX boys to buy back the ES and YM shorts at breakeven*




robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 11:06 AM





*So now we wait for the right time and right level to go long equity scalpers.

john.derJan 29, 2021 11:14 AM

And, short TN?

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 11:15 AM

And short TN -- you are early John.

Good morning.

john.derJan 29, 2021 11:17 AM

Good morning, Robert. Just catching up over a cup of ☕ before enduring the task of waking up teenage boys.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 11:21 AM

There should be a small pullback in the yield providing levels to short TN,

. . . which may provide levels to go long equities.

We will be on the lookout for those opportunities.

On the long side, we will use NQ and RTY as trade vehicles, or ES.

After two days of incubating the short trades, it was disappointing to merely breakeven, but we did have some fun, ain't it. Also, B/E is better than a kick in the teeth.

kiraninvestorJan 29, 2021 3:14 PM

robert.p.balan ...what is your view on how the RTY and interest rates have had correlating behaviour in the last few weeks and months. It appears RTY has had moves different from ES and NQ, and maybe they are just an exaggerated move.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 4:12 PM


*This order was partially filled.*


robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 4:42 PM

kiraninvestor -- very tight covariance still.

rcmaiJan 29, 2021 4:48 PM

FYI today is first notice day in GCG1 and April (J21) is front month and much more liquid

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 5:02 PM

OK thanks -- XXX boys will do the roll over when they find a good time to do it.

kiraninvestorJan 29, 2021 5:28 PM

thanks @robert.p.balan. Given your view that the interest rates will go up...shorting RTY will not be so good. Is that a fair conclusion

nichaJan 29, 2021 6:00 PM

I got in the RTY trade last night while I was sleeping. Looking for an opportune time to exit.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 6:36 PM

The area illustrated should be optimal.

Robert, are you still planning to scalp long NQ, ES?

robert.p.balanJan 29, 2021 7:38 PM

I learned years ago not to scratch that itch to trade without rationale (right or wrong) -- so bear with me a little while we look for a good reason to make a trade. Its also Friday night.

kiraninvestorJan 29, 2021 9:44 PM

so true.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 7:45 PM

Remember also -- yields (on NY close basis), lead SPX and inverse of VIX by up two days (see chart below). Yields have already turned up, so maybe Monday is a better day to go long -- there's nothing like no risk to worry about on a weekend. Also, maybe by Monday, yields have corrected 50 pct of the rally today (see chart below).

Sorry -- not meaning to sound mean. Just wanting to make sure we do not take unqualified risks, is what I am trying to say in my usual undiplomatic way.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 8:00 PM

We can trade on the purple line, but safer to wait for the red line to happen.

flamarkJan 29, 2021 6:33 PM

Robert, I've been using your shorts (YM and ES) as hedges on my biotechs, and they have worked very well. Unfortunately I'm also actively shorting XBI and IBB and getting whipsawed terribly. They are trading closely with rates.

yunengJan 29, 2021 6:45 PM

Pretty weak support still.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 6:52 PM

flamark mark-- yield lead XBI by two day in NY close basis. Yields have already turned up. You may have another day or so to endure before XBI turns up and chase the yields higher.

flamarkJan 29, 2021 7:15 PM

Thanks. It the lead/lag feels closer to 5 secs than 2 days...

Alan.LongbonJan 29, 2021 7:25 PM

It is the end of the month and the monthly Fedgov spend is a weak $1.7T down from over $2T the month before. Instead of $65+B per day it has only been $63B. That is why things are weak.

January is "traditionally" a Fedgov surplus (private domestic sector deficit month). One of the three major dry patches in the year. Despite the larger than normal spend rate it is still less than previous months by a lot.

Brent.ChavezJan 29, 2021 7:41 PM

Alan.Longbon what are your thoughts on market direction over the next month? With February being traditionally negative month, do you see that with all the stimulus out there?

Alan.LongbonJan 29, 2021 7:48 PM

February is actually traditionally a big spend month so it should be ok. There is a a big treasury interest payment in February that injects money into the private domestic sector. So with the Covid spending on top of that it should be a big month.

flamarkJan 29, 2021 7:44 PM

XBI and TBT(20 yr Ultra Short = Yield Surrogate)

flamarkJan 29, 2021 7:47 PM

I dont have a 10 or 20 yr yield in TOS platform so I use the 20 year bond Short ETF vs the XBI..

surfinusaJan 29, 2021 8:16 PM

TNX is available as a ticker on ToS.

flamarkJan 29, 2021 8:42 PM

Everything is eerily correlated as we near the close .. Yields, Oil, Metals, Rates, Bitcoin, GMD, Equities...

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 9:30 PM

One question -- what happens when everyone wants to monetize the sharp increase in GME share price?

centexlifeJan 29, 2021 9:31 PM

Insufficient liquidity

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 9:33 PM

What happens when all the Reddi-lotionists want to exit through a small door which can only accommodate two shares, sorry -- two investors -- at a time?

Robinhood Limits Purchases Of GME To Just 2 Shares

I suppose there is no limit when the order is SELL.

mwarh1Jan 29, 2021 9:43 PM

From what I've read, most long investors intend on holding indefinitely. I don't surmise that'll change over the weekend.

But before that, what happens when Melvin Capital (and other over-leveraged short funds) have to pay massive interest on their overlevered shorts indefinitely - with ever-increasing borrowing rates? Will Uncle Steve continue to give them a $3 billion weekly allowance for margin calls, or will they concede they got bested by meme traders and cover their asinine short?

RM13Jan 29, 2021 9:46 PM

This is so much fun - hold onto your GAMR.

Gamestop Distortion Sparks Unprecedented Collapse In Retail ETF Assets

...investors have pulled roughly $700 million from the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) this week, draining total assets to just $164 million.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 9:48 PM

So the asinine shorts are covered, and that sends the GME share price to the moon. So what happens thereafter -- the meme traders just keep on piling on GME, or try to monetize?. I am just trying to understand what the end-game is in this play?

cake.bluesJan 29, 2021 11:47 PM

They are almost all following "DFV" Deep Fucking Value. He's the one in the position for 2 years and a financial advisor. He's up from 50K to 50 mil. Once he sells the bottom will fall out. Don't know his endgame but he holds mostly April calls and shares and he knows how to play it. I'm pretty sure he will get out at max pain for whoever is still short.

robert.p.balanJan 29, 2021 11:49 PM

Thanks CB -- will be on the lookout for what he is going to do next.

RM13Jan 30, 2021 12:41 AM

Must be talking about Keith Gill - the market has changed now -watch what happens when multiple Keith clones appear -

Keith Gill Drove the GameStop Reddit Mania. He Talked to the Journal.

RM13Jan 29, 2021 9:50 PM

On various boards, there are arguments made not to sell, but to simply hold GME longs and 'deprive' hedge funds of shares to cover their shares. Of course, GME can issue shares to provide liquidity - and instantly become a viable company.. That's the most legally friendly approach IMO, outside of SEC and others getting involved..

acetaiaJan 29, 2021 9:53 PM

Ive seen one holding from 50.000.- balance options since over 1 and half year, always substitute them, account $ is now over 50 Mio.

RM13Jan 29, 2021 9:55 PM

If you think outside of the box, this will precipitate long/short fund derisking - and deleveraging - most shorted stocks are being run up, I've done my share with MAC, TWNK - I think this leads to diminishing number of long/short funds... This will happen this month... And this becomes political.

Texas AG Issues CIDs To Robinhood, Citadel, Others Over "Shocking Coordination" Between Hedge Funds, Trading Platforms To Halt Trading

"Wall Street corporations cannot limit public access to the free market, nor should they censor discussion surrounding it, particularly for their own benefit."

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 9:55 PM

But it is still paper profit, for all purposes, money printed on printer paper. What happens when he wants to cash in that windfall? Or it will be held forever?

RM13Jan 29, 2021 9:55 PM

This is no longer just about profits, Robert... Think of it as a financial rebellion..

See this "This Is For You, Dad": Redditor Shares Heartbreaking Reason For Destroying Short-Sellers In WSB Raids I trade for profit only.

"I'll burn it all down just to spite them..."

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 9:57 PM

OK --- I get that part. But you can't be "rich" without physical money -- say, I am tone deaf to "revolutionary zeal" because I am a person with real needs and desires, especially involving money.

yunengJan 29, 2021 9:58 PM

A hell of a show. Doesn't end well for both sellers and buyers of GME.

RM13Jan 29, 2021 9:58 PM

I think majority of robinhooders and like are simply rolling down the list of most shorted stocks, taking some profits and letting the rest run.. I think that's a mistake, ultimately, the market and SEC will solve this.. But this changes the hedge fund industry, I think there is deleverage in shot/long industry coming.. This will reduce depth of markets, yet again.. And with information available for all now, I think hedge fund industry is about to go against very flexible day traders..

mwarh1Jan 29, 2021 10:03 PM

It was never about the profits, it's about the message; a principle far greater than profits. I have abstained from taking any positions to remain objective but fully support the movement. Money is abundant and can be gained; this movement has exposed just how scarce honesty and justice are in markets. Hopefully this leads to major changes in the legacy financial markets, otherwise I (and many others) will opt out to a truly decentralized market that is controlled by noone: crypto. Bitcoin is that "opt out" which many more are now waking up to realize, and will likely increasingly do so.

RM13Jan 29, 2021 10:04 PM

Here are 2 steps from the box - silver and cryptocurrencies will be beneficiaries of this in time.. They will be viewed as definancialized assets

federergoatJan 29, 2021 10:04 PM

Why silver?

RM13Jan 29, 2021 10:05 PM

Really interesting argument why - some are viewing it as a start up precious metal, ready to soar like ethereum..

federergoatJan 29, 2021 10:08 PM

Will this sentiment partially help gold or drop down gold?

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 10:05 PM

That I admire mwarh1 -- don't get me wrong. But if its is true that the majority of the investments come from stimmy checks, I wonder how long can that fervor remain, before real-life needs intrude.

RM13Jan 29, 2021 10:06 PM

Robert, rent payments are in deferral yet again.. So are student loans.. Lots of millenials and genxers have extra money, with nowhere to go...

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 10:13 PM

It also helps that many millennials and Gen_Xers live in the basement in their parents house. But would you want to remain in that situation to preserve the revolution, or succumb to normal human reaction function, and monetize that printer paper money?

I am trying to understand this because once selling starts, it will bring the entire market with the flows to the drain. Hence, I am asking.

yunengJan 29, 2021 10:19 PM

Let's hope GME remains a small part of the market.

Point about excess liquidity still stands, undoubtedly.

mwarh1Jan 29, 2021 10:21 PM

Personally, I know many people who already live on their own and have been and still are out of work for months now, collecting a steady stream of government-fed enhanced unemployment, not including stimulus injections, trading income, or universal basic income, which appears all but certain in the near-term, which will only increase the amount of expendable money until people can resume their lives (and earn more money).

roquefortJan 29, 2021 10:38 PM

The COVID lockdown have created lot of frustration, everybody saw how the FED rescued the financial world but not the real economy (small business destroyed etc). Lot of anger, and it also revive Occupy WS ideas, and since everybody is now connected (2008/11, the part of youth was quit small in comparison of now, im 35 and lot of my friend work in the financial industry fully support the current movement too and we're still "young" in comparison since we're part of the meme culture etc).

Funny fact, "hold the line" and "eat the rich" are the motto when it comes to speak about GME, and not just by 1 or 2 random guy, and like in every forum. If you go on investing.com for example, on every language its the same rhetoric.

Especially since the answer from the government in most western countries fueled anger.

"“Our research shows that epidemics do have a statistically significant positive effect on the number of social unrest events, particularly in the case of riots,” she said. “Disease outbreaks produce intense feelings of fear, anger, resentment, and alienation among populations. There is much anecdotal evidence from historical cases and contemporary media reports suggesting epidemics create conditions conducive to social unrest, specifically, and a mistrust of the state's response to the epidemic itself may induce the backlash and spur dissent.”"

Do pandemics contribute to social unrest?

john.derJan 29, 2021 11:10 PM

Just catching up on this thread as, unlike most PAM'ers, I have been caught long during this downturn and have had a 24 hour overhedging operation ongoing. .... I just have one comment: Pets.com .... the Minsky Moment is near.

Brent.ChavezJan 29, 2021 11:16 PM

John.der your not alone. But, I just do stocks, etfs. Running hard long and naked. Got beat up pretty good last 2 of 3 days. I know as soon as I hedge markets will rocket up.

RM13Jan 29, 2021 11:30 PM

Robert, I suspect that almost all robinhooders and the like are ready to take profits, it's just when - but they are reading too many stories of turning 10k into a million via cryptocurrencies and may have missed the bus - so this is their next bus to riches. As long as people are given money by governments/insurance/unemployment benefits office and have nothing constructive to do, they will find constructive addictive ways of occupying themselves - unless payments stop or legal ways are created to halt this - financial manipulations/short runs will continue. Humans need to be given small problems to solve, on continued basis, to function well psychologically, UBI fails in this regard.

woodyggJan 29, 2021 11:40 PM

It's not someone that needs basic income needs met through UBI that is fueling this, nor is it someone in desperate need of $600. Not to say some of that money wasn't given to those who didn't need it -that should be sorted out.

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderJan 29, 2021 11:52 PM

Robinhood Caps Maximum Holdings In 36 Stocks To Just One Share

_It also means that we may have to have another "Lehman Weekend" situation on our hands, only this time it will be a "Robinhood Weekend", and an urgent acquisition from a strategic buyer may be required to prevent the worst case outcome. We only hope that the billions in funds held in custody for clients is segregated should the company collapse (pinging Jon Corzine here)._

Expect a lot of Robinhood related news over the weekend

Here goes your Misky Moment John.

_Cash hoarding and repo market problems could be a sign of counterparties beginning to worry about clearinghouses. If initial margins rise significantly, the only assets that will see a bid will be cash, US treasuries, JGBs, Bunds, Yen and Swiss Franc. Everything else will likely face selling pressure. If a major clearinghouse should fail due to two counterparties failing, then many centrally cleared hedges will also fail. If this happens, you will not receive the cash from your bearish hedge, as the counterparty has gone bust, and the clearinghouse needs to pay from its own capital or even get be recapitalised itself. One way to think about it is that the financial crisis only metastasized when MG failed, because at that point, everyone suddenly became un-hedged, and everyone needed to sell.

RM13Jan 30, 2021 12:29 AM

Well, if we are about to have Minsky Moment, Fed and central bankers will step in. This is small traders, but there are hedge funds and momentum funds in this short killing mode - if Renaissance has RHood order flows, it's got its elbows in deep - v1.2 How WallStreetBets upset Wall Street - just one version of history. Fed/SEC has a weekend to ponder over this, but this is not David vs Goliath, it's interinstitutional fight...

Brent.ChavezJan 30, 2021 12:45 AM

RM13 I tend to agree, just like last time when repo markets were having problems.

h.jabsJan 30, 2021 4:37 AM

RB, this reminds me of the day trading euphoria of the 90s before the dot com crash. i used to know many people that left their jobs to day trade while i was working at a big bank making markets for them. they all eventually went bust and we made a ton of money. Although, now, i do believe it's different because of the speed and decentralization of information, the crux is, do the traditional players have enough power to quash such investors.

Unfortunately i do, because we all know that this is a rigged system, hence, we subscribe to PAM and listen to your ideas and the community's to learn more. But the question is, will this lead to something new, investing wise, and i think it will. social behavior is changing, thus, investing behavior is changing because of the entrance and mistrust these millennials have in the system. these are the people that where greatly affected by the GFC of 2008 and have now the ability to claim their fair share.

These are people that have stimulus money and a lot of time on their hands to do their research. These, in the main part, are not stupid people. But alas, they will hold the bag at the end, because they do not have trading/investing experience and they will get greedy from their paper profits and hold on to their stocks. they are the ones that when the stock goes down from 300 to 100, will double down and lose even more money.

I've seen this behavior time and time again as i'm sure many people in this community have. it will not end well, but sure as s@#$t, it will eventually change wall streets behavior. do i think the redditers are right, absolutely! does it have a major affect on the market, i think GME and the likes are such a small portion of the US market cap that i don't think it will put a dent into the system.

I don't think its a lehman moment (maybe LTCM but smaller) because robinhood only needs a couple of billion dollars to be bailed out. Melvin capital raised 2.7 billion this week without blinking an eye and robinhood raised a billion last night and drew down on 500 million in credit. the system is flush with cash, thus the adage, don't go against the FED.

It's basically a turf war and if history is an indicator, we know the MOTUs will win.

TimK123Jan 30, 2021 2:32 AM

Back to the Market.

Just looked back at the long term trend, this could be a retest of the trendline since 2018, so could bounce off potentially, can't ignore the trend, it seems too strong to ignore, a clean break down through it would seem unlikely to me, (since it spent so long trying to break above it) potential trampoline again at least for the short term (many of those solid bars are like vice grips pincering the line so think it's going to be a magnet even if we don't get a good bounce here, less chance of a collapse).

Amazing how a thing like a straight line can move markets despite the combined IQ of a few thousand of the commentators with lots of fancy theories for every twist and turn (easy to over complicate things at times I guess).

Think yields might need to pave the way forward, if they can finish the W1, and do a W2 & 3 as I interpeted from RB's comments then that would give confidence for a sustained rise for indices too:

TimK123Jan 30, 2021 2:32 AM

RM13Jan 30, 2021 4:10 AM

Delta neutral for SPY is 370, that's the line the market has retested 5 or 6 times in the last 10 months, it dipped below that, but ultimately rocked higher.. We shall see how these levels (as well as gamma neutral levels) change into next week..

timothy.r.kiserModeratorJan 29, 2021 10:13 PM

Happy weekend to all. Great week of trading for me Robert!

robert.p.balanModeratorLeaderOwnerJan 29, 2021 10:26 PM

So you can finance that Great Southern Barbecue cook out this weekend, huh?

GN everyone. See you in Asian trade on Monday.

JANUARY 30, 2021


Long bond yield already turned sharply higher -- MOTUs already moved forward from the GME saga - risk on follows.

The 2-day lead of the 10Yr yield over SPX , XBI and inverse of VIX.

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