European crisis has been raging for some time and last few weeks have been very hectic. It has been quite bearish for EUR/USD generally. However, some recent weekends have been much better for the currency pair. In the last few weekends there were some significant events or meetings or announcements, which had positive impact on the euro on Monday. In most cases the effect wore off quite soon but not before providing some tradable opportunities.
The currency markets are 24x5 day affair and unlike equities, there is very limited opportunity for gaps. The only time when there is a greater chance for a gap is when the markets open for the week on Monday morning. The gaps have been noticeable for EUR/USD for the past five weeks.
Following is based upon the trend for the past five weeks - a very short trend.
- The average weekly open gap was 35 PIPs with max gap of 134. Three out of five weeks, EUR/USD opened on the up side.
- The average max move on Monday from the Friday close was 102 PIPs with 164 being highest and 46 being the lowest move.
- Three times the pair closed up on Monday and twice closed down. The average close was up 4 PIPs with 63 PIP as max close up and -59 being the min close down.
Will the pair stick to its recent trend?
This weekend too there is a meeting in Rome. If the news from that is positive then the pair may move up on Monday. We will only know it on Monday.
FXE is the currency ETF for EUR/USD, but by the time the US equity markets open most of the pair's weekly open effect wears off making it a poor trading vehicle.