Verizon reported their sales numbers today, and threw a wrench into my projections.
I was actually SHOCKED that iPhone captured 63% of VZ smartphone sales of 9.8 million, which equals = 6.3 million.
This is the LARGEST market share ever that Apple has achieved as a percent of Verizon sales.
However, one word of caution is that at least 50% of the 6.3 million were not the iPhone 5s (meaning they were the iPhone 4 and 4s).
This is actually good and bad for Apple. It will decrease their average selling price per unit (always reflected as ASP). However, the continued subsidies on iphone 4 and 4s, and the decreasing manufacturing cost for the older phones, still has led to gross margin on these phones as high as 65-70%. If this trend extends to Apple's other customers, iPhone 4 and 4s taking a larger mix of sales than anticipated, we may end up seeing a slightly higher GM than anticipated.
I am lowering the ASP in my model, but significantly upgrading total unit sales.
Verizon sales have historically averaged 11% of Apple total iPhone unit sales.
So at 6.3 / 10.75% of vz sales / total iphones = 58.6 million
Given that Apple has performed their largest and fastest rollout ever to over 100 countries the historical Verizon share % should come in lower than average. Hence my projection from 11% to 10.75%.
Additionally, at&t has provided total smartphone sales, and we could expect similiar sequential market share grab of the iPhone. ~80% market share of AT&T sales = ~ 8 million iPhones (10.2 million smartphones sold as official number).
Sprint can be estimated at 2 million iphones.
Total domestic iphone sales = 16.3 million
This is important because we can use another historic markup. iPhone domestic sales typically represent 30 - 35% market share of total iPhone sales. Again, assuming international did really well this quarter, we can use the low end of 30%.
16.3 million / .30 = 54.33 million
I will take the average of these two assumptions for a final projection of 56.5 million
This is setting up for a beat that would be on the highest end of independent analyst forecast. My numbers are below:
New EPS Estimates:
Revenue: 61.5 Billion
iPhones: 56.5 million units
iPads: 27 million units (11 million minis though don't expect breakout of this figure)
GM %: 38.5%
Disclosure: I am long AAPL.
Additional disclosure: long apple options