As we approach the end of the year, and the end of my professional money management career, I thought it would make sense to wrap up the stock ideas I have given the public. I may continue to provide my investment thoughts from time to time, but I will likely do it on a different website and most likely less often and less stock-specific. However, I will not leave the current ideas I have provided hanging--here are some conclusions.
Navidea (NYSEMKT:NAVB): My favorite idea to talk about. I think Lymphoseek, as an asset, is worth very little. Will the FDA approve it? Who knows. What it is worth is what I care about it and I believe the answer is very little. As you recall, I shorted the stock at 5.25 and covered at 2.00 within 8 weeks. My job as an investor is to maximize adjusted IRR. That was one of the best ideas I've had for the risk in a long time.
Oncothyreon (ONTY): Similar concept as Navidea, but I've been vindicated as of today.
Avanir (NASDAQ:AVNR): I've also "covered" this one but I must give credit to management for doing a good job with Nuedexta. The drug is priced too low, guys. Price it higher and you'll be just fine.
Mesoblast (MSB-AU): Ah, here is a nice scam. I haven't done that well in the stock, but boy, is this one a good short.
Biomarin (NASDAQ:BMRN): This stock has doubled since I wrote on it. Since then, they've received great news and I bet it will double again. Onwards to 100!
Chelsea (NASDAQ:CHTP): The bane of my existence and the sole money-losing idea. Just shut down already...
Zalicus (ZLCS), Human Genome Sciences (HGSI): Nothing to say here.
Star Scientific (STSI), Ampio (NASDAQ:AMPE), Biotime (NYSEMKT:BTX): I don't love these stocks, but I am not recommending shorting them. The people who love them, love them for a reason and that is unlikely to change. Let's call it a truce.
MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD): Oh MannKind, I will remember you fondly. May you become a $1 billion company again so I may participate in your stock declining just once more before riding off into the sunset.
Cytori (NASDAQ:CYTX): How these guys raise money continually surprises me. This is one of the saddest things I've ever seen. An eventual "donut".
Nektar (NASDAQ:NKTR): This thesis is still playing out, but I would hold out for a $2 stock eventually.
Horizon (NASDAQ:HZNP): Good god, this company will not exist in a year or so.
Median Return: 38%
Mean Return: 33%
Median IRR: 77%
Mean IRR: 903%
Hit Rate: 14/15 (93%)
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Conflicts may exist. I may have positions, may enter positions, exist positions, change my mind and do all kinds of things that conflict with the stocks mentioned. The disclosure form SeekingAlpha uses does not allow for a complete description of conflicts.