After a week of reflection and a media blackout, here's my not so profound thoughts on the election.
1. Democrats were destined to lose. Trump may have actually stemmed the loss by being an attractive target for democrats to vilify. Kasich would have killed it. Either way, the pendulum was bound to swing, it's like clockwork on an eight year schedule. Democrats should celebrate the fact that they actually gained seats, my guess is they would have lost seats if Republicans had a better candidate.
2. Public polling is science fiction, stop calling it a science. Its so ironic that liberal braniacs will believe in the statistical validity of public polling while at the same time rejecting creationism. Both are fairy tales.
3. Turnout doesn't matter. No statistician will tell you with a straight face that you need 100% sampling to find the true average. Half of eligible voters decided to vote, that's a huge sample size. The chances that the outcome would be different if everyone voted is about zero...or the same chance democrats had of winning this time around.
4. Trump will turn out to disappoint his fans and critics by becoming a typical politician...almost overnight. I wouldn't be surprise if it already hasn't happened...after all, I haven't seen any news since last Wednesday.
5. Voters want to turn on the cash spigot and run up some national debt to feel better for a while. This will pass, and in two or four years those same voters will vote to turn it off while they nurse a debt hangover with higher interest rates, some inflation and a weaker currency. As usual, the balm will be ephemeral and the cost will fall disproportionately to the poor. Always does.
6. We are all national libertarians. Locally we are conservative or progressive, or something in between. Less federalism is the mood of the day, whether you are liberal or conservative at home.
7. Gerrymandering is nonsense, but it probably doesn't change the outcome very much, or at all. The only effect would be to have politicians that "moderate" what they say they are going to do. Once they get into office, they all do the same thing. Follow the money and see where it goes.
8. The electoral college works perfectly and should never be changed. One person one vote sounds great in theory, but it almost ensures that there will be an armed revolution. The oppressed minority states will rise up under excessive federalism. The electoral college is the necessary check and balance, and it works perfectly.
9. National politicians are well liked in their home districts, but congress is hated nationally. This is exactly the kind of polarization that is required to keep federalism from metastasizing and encroaching on our liberty. I expect our Senators and Representatives from California to block, stymie, stall and reject every single proposal in congress. Gridlock is exactly what voters want, and it's for a good reason.
10. The federal government, in most cases, should wait to act on anything until a majority of states have already moved in that direction. Other than protecting our individual rights and liberty, its best if the federal government stay out of our lives.
11. As an investor, you must not get caught up in election narratives, and its best to be politically agnostic. Politics rarely, if ever, has a meaningful impact on the markets or the economy in the short run. Any impact it does have is usually very slow in coming. This is by design, and its a good thing, and it works great.
Our democracy is functioning perfectly.