Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Commodity Currents: Familiar Friday.

Corn continues to float lower unable to advance beyond 809 now trading to 800 although prices have yet to fall under 785 either with support seen 23 cents lower while profit-takers target Wheat sending prices toward support at 871 with resistance seen at 895 and an inside day in Soybeans gives buyers pause but the trend remains higher unless sellers can get a close under 1670, highly unlikely at this time. New contract highs in Oats were rejected although prices still remain over 392 further supported by 384 so have to wait if there is sustainable buying or if sellers get motivated. An early rally in Coffee wakes up sellers turning prices away from 166.75 whereas buyers hold the line at 162.50 and get prices over 164.60 for now but suspect sellers are on the wrong side with Sugar trending lower as buyers defend 19.50 as prices pivot over 19.76 so have to see how that plays out and Cocoa clings to fractional gains touching 2,647 at one point but not before renewed selling sends prices off the best levels but still closing positive for now as support remains far below at 2,491. Orange Juice traded to 120.80 at one point but unable to hold the gains closing under 119.45 although think it will try again as buyers remain supportive and Cotton continues higher in its narrow up channel as buyers remain supportive at 76.25 keeping prices heading toward 80.59 with support still at 75.00. Hogs traded lower to 72.800 before buyers entered to send prices sharply higher keeping 74.875 within reach as support is seen at and/or under 73.600 with Cattle easing over 126.00 as buyers supported at 125.425 with 126.575 next as 125.225 remains solid supports. Initially Crude was looking lower but abruptly reverses direction running over shorts as prices close back over 96.09 but falling short of 96.97 however so have to see if this move is sustainable or if the decline will continue taking prices to 92.48 and Natural gas continues its advance hitting 2.808, (my target 2.807) and if can hold these gains or at least stay over 2.753 this increases the chances of a challenge of 2.900. Gold shined as buyers returned to send prices back to challenge 1680 closing just under that level with higher prices likely on the horizon after 1652.00 contained early profit-taking with a similar story with Silver also advancing strongly after support at 30.285 held and prices resume the search for 32.495. However Copper lagged probing support around 3.4075 before reversing higher but unable to retake 3.4680 but closing just under the best levels of the day. Outside in stocks as buyers returned and can't say am surprised to see this either to send prices in the S&P500 higher although unable to close over 1406.50 and ending right at 1405 with a similar performance in the Nasdaq 100 as buyers supported at 2,745.25 however unable to close over 2773.50 so have to wait and see if there is follow through buying or if the sellers return. 10yr Treasuries had no such problem advancing after holding 134-00 closing right at session high at 134-28 as new highs (and record low yields) remain easily within reach and the Dollar heads in the other direction trading under 81.000 at one point before recovering somewhat but remaining under 81.335 longer term prices could challenge 79.75. Does this pattern with higher crude, gold, silver, bonds and weaker dollar look familiar? It's the QE3 stimulus rumor trade but one minor problem is the Fed keeps saying the same phrase that stimulus only if needed but the markets keeps treating that as new information so it will be interesting to see how this plays out when there is no additional stimulus.


The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.