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Commodity Currents: Turnover Tuesday?

May 22, 2012 10:04 PM ET
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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2011

Spent my entire career on the trading floor of major futures exchange experiencing price discovery up close and quite personal and know first hand just how irrational these markets can be. Initially in futures, branched into the world of options trading learning various options strategies that can be implemented to generate profits regardless of market direction. While irrational markets can always become more irrational, they are too large to fade but their behavior can be anticipated with a certain degree of certainty so we can tailoring appropriate strategies in futures, options or combinations to specific market situations to minimize risk while increasing reward.

Sure looks that way with several markets failing at previously mentioned levels with less then impressive buying interest on the rebound. S&P500 rallied right into but failed at 1324 falling back to the open with a similar performance with the Nasdaq 100 capped at 2556 only to reverse lower going into the close. 10yr Treasuries initially fell through 133-13 support only to recovery to close at that level which looks like there is more upside with Bonds testing support at 146-23 but getting a close over ending at 147-00.The Dollar flew off the 81.14 support level after it held on a couple of tests sending the greenback to session highs putting 82.00 within reach it once again. Gold sold off after being turned away from 1600 again trading back under 1573 albeit not by much but unless new buyers show up, prices now looking lower. Silver tried to advance but ran into problems approaching 29.000 again to head lower with more downside possible. Crude slipped again reversing yesterday's gains as sellers didn't wait for prices to reach 94.00 before getting back in on the short side with near term support seen at 89.22 whereas Natural gas managed a gain after holding 2.575 closing back over 2.610 with next target still 2.800. Profit-taking continues in Hogs failing to hold 86.50 so have to wait and see if the buyers support if prices trade closer to 84.000. Volatility continues in the grain with Corn the chosen one to drop over 5 percent blowing through near term support like it wasn't there, a hallmark of fund selling whereas Wheat wasn't immune to profit taking either although managed to hold its 200dma at 683 and Soybeans pulled back from 1420 trading down to 1380 again, last time they bounced higher, what about this time? Coffee tried to rally but this time turned away from 177.50 as it looks like sellers are starting to be more aggressive at these levels as buyers consider waiting for lower prices while Sugar fell under 20.00 after an unsuccessful upside attempt at 20.40 although prices did close off the worse levels. Cocoa broke 2,200 looking for token support at 2,150 after buyers gave up trying to push through formidable resistance and Orange Juice advances on likely short covering without much behind the move as buyers lost interest as prices approached 112.00. Limit down move in Cotton as prices failed at 78.00 giving speculators more reason to sell but buyers little reason to buy with the path of least resistance lower.


The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended

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