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Twenty Sessions Above The 5 Day SMA

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

Jonathan Krinsky of MKM partners pointed out that today marked the 20th consecutive session the S&P 500 closed above the 5 day SMA, therefore credit where credit is due. Since 1990 this is only the fifth time this has occurred. What followed was not particularly bullish.

While all four continued to add to the streak over the following sessions, three of four were lower four sessions later by an average of -0.94%. By a week later the market fell -1.32% and was only higher 25% of the time. Moreover, two weeks later the S&P 500 traded lower all four times with a negative return of -2.49%. While average returns continued to decline due to the large fall that followed in 1998, one and two months later win rates did improve.

Disclosure: The author is short SPY.