So what is T+3? Well, it's short for "transaction + 3 days" settlement (for equities - options are next-day settle) and it comes into play as the calendar nears the three days prior to month, quarter and/or year end. T+3 is commonly in reference to "window dressing or window smashing" - depending on how the month, quarter or year end is shaping up, many portfolio managers add to winners and sell losers (or vice versa) in this precarious time in the calendar. The "Of course we owned that hot stock this quarter" trade is not that easy! Many portfolio managers will bogey today and the next two days, especially now with a 12% gain for the 1QTR, as many guys try to "dress up" but with a lot of funds all in and no firepower left to buy, it often leads to the "walkaway" trade that sets up in the next 3 days … stay tuned!
Conclusion: The markets are entering the final three days of the first quarter. The S&P took a rest yesterday after a 34-handle two-day rally. It is our feeling that the the mutual/investment funds mark up their winners today and tomorrow and start to sell some of the losing position going into Friday's trade.
The view for today:
It's 5:30 am and the SPM is up two handles at 1405.50, crude is down 90 cents at 106.43 and the EC is trading 1.3354, up 13.
In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed lower.
In Europe 12 out of 13 markets are trading fractionally lower.
The main headline this morning: "No Time for Complacency in Europe: Ex-ECB Official"
Today's economic and earnings calendar starts out with the MBA purchase applications, durable goods, EIA petroleum status, a 5yr note auction and St. Louis Fed president James Bullard speaking at a monetary policy conference in Beijing.
VOLUME: 1.25mil ESM and 8.8k SPM traded
SPREADS: 1 SPM/SPU spread tradedFV: S&P +1.60, NASDAQ +3.00