Here's our thoughts/picture of where we see stocks heading specifialy the SPX Index...we have been in the Stagflation Camp for the last year but respectful of of the underlying techinical market structure - meaning stocks were in a long
term uptrend as per the series of higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows. However this week that technical market structure has changed to
bearish (as per the NEW lower swing low), the long term trend line was violated, a violation of major daily/weekly support toward 1250, as well as other technical indicators such as a 200 day violation. We are better sellers of stocks and the governments 81% revised grossly wrong GDP growth estimate remains a joke!! (Nice call for the Bernank and his runner Geithner)...We remain in the stagflation camp as margins have been under pressure, the lack of underlying economic activity, a cripled housing market, coupled with structructural debt problem is not condusive to long term growth. Debt Crisis = Slow to No Growth!!
And the Keynesian game plan of piling debt upon debt to solve the problem won't work and only creates a world flooded with fiat currency that throughout histroy eventually lands on small piles of commodoities (especially precious medals) as the currency eventually goes to zero (all currencies once they become fiat - backed by nothing - have all eventually ended up at thier true intrinsic value which is zero! Every single fiat currency in history has gone to zero) hence the inflationary piece of our Stagflation bias. We remain in a precious metals long term wealth cycle and the trend for the majority of currencies remains down.
Disclosure: I am long UGL, SLW.