If you are interested in a fun read to understand information markets, you might consider James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds. It is my favorite book on the topic. I also learned a lot from Group Judgments: Deliberations, Statistical Means, and Information Markets by Cass Sunstein, one of my favorite people who served in President Obama's administration. My general aversion to command-and-control economics was somewhat softened while he was the one commanding and controlling. Somewhat. Another great paper on the topic is Justin Wolfers' and Eric Zitzewitz's Prediction Markets.
I raise the topic because prediction markets are worth following for anyone dealing with real time risk and uncertainty. Fund managers qualify. I actively monitor information markets to glean insights into public policy matters that can impact public securities markets. While approximately 99.9% of my interest is in using them for information, I can't help but place a direct wager when a bet appears to me to be particular egregious. Below are my posts to date on recent information market opportunities:
Will Rahm Emanuel Win A Second Term As Mayor Of Chicago?
Yesterday, 5:51 PM • MSI, RTN, HON
Will DHS Partially Shut Down On Or Before March 2 Due To Lack Of Funding?
Yesterday, 4:27 PM • CSC, GIB, BX
Will North Korea Test A Nuclear Weapon Before The End Of 2015?
Yesterday, 1:01 PM • KF, KEF, KORU
Will The Federal Gasoline Tax Increase In 2015?
Sun, Feb. 15 • TSLA, gas tax
Will A Federal Minimum Wage Increase Go Into Effect In 2015?
Sun, Feb. 15 • COST, WMT, ODP
Will Goodluck Jonathan Be Reelected As President Of Nigeria?
Sun, Feb. 8 • NGE, Nigeria, Boko Haram
Bettin' On Putin's Russia
Sun, Feb. 1 • RUSS, Khodorkovsky, Putin
Gouging Is Good
Wed, Jan. 28 • FUR, WFM, de Blasio
Will The Supreme Court Disallow Subsidies On Health Insurance Purchased Via The Federal Exchange?
Mon, Jan. 26 • Obamacare, ACA, Supreme Court
Who Will Win The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election?
Mon, Jan. 26 • White House, 2016, election
Will The FCC Reclassify Internet Access Under Title II Of The Telecom Act In 2015?
Mon, Jan. 26 • T, DTV, CMCSK
Who Will Be Prime Minister After The Next British Election?
Mon, Jan. 26 • SYHEF, Cameron, UK
Who Will Be Elected Prime Minister Of Canada In 2015?
Mon, Jan. 26 • GLNIF, TLM, AOSDF
Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Another Term As Prime Minister Of Israel?
Mon, Jan. 26 • TARO, ISL, SODA
Will The U.S. Authorize The TransCanada (NYSE:TRP) Keystone XL Pipeline In 2015?
Mon, Jan. 26 • TRP, Keystone
Will Greece Declare A New National Currency In 2015?
Mon, Jan. 26 • Greece, Tsipras, Dolphin Capital
I search high and low for misplaced bets and will follow that quest wherever it takes me… even Washington, DC.