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Money Flows: RAVS, 10/11/2011

The chart below shows a current snapshot of market activity ranging from risk assets to safe havens.  For more information on how these charts are generated and how they can be utilized, click here.


Risk Assets vs. Safe-Havens Update, 10/11/2011 4:00pm Market Close


Into the close we see a minor lift in small cap, mid cap, Nasdaq, and S&P.  Oil drops back into negative territory, broad commodities mostly hold onto gains, and gold comes up slightly off its lows.  Bonds and the dollar finish mostly in their positions from 1:30pm.

Day Patter:  Safe havens started positive and risk assets negative.  The curve flipped to some degree, with equities gaining while bonds and the dollar fell, but neither very aggressively.  All in all a fairly flat day for money flows, with a slight equity bull bias.

Most interesting to me is that the broad commodities sector rapidly moved to top position in terms of bullish money flows and managed to mostly hold its position through close.  I have no interpretation for this action short of the obvious - safety gave up some money, risk gained some, and commodities, sitting in the middle, gained a good amount.  This seems to indicate an overall 'middle of the road' mood for today's market.

Asset Prev Close 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1:30pm 3:00pm 4pm Close
Small Cap +4.38 -0.57 -0.48 +0.29 +0.09 +0.10 +0.13 +0.69
Mid-Cap +3.65 -0.26 -0.35 +0.08 -0.14 -0.17 -0.21 +0.14
Nasdaq +3.44 -0.29 +0.05 +0.59 +0.71 +0.48 +0.48 +0.68
S&P 500 +3.34 -0.64 -0.33 +0.08 +0.03 +0.03 -0.09 +0.10
DJIA +2.87 -0.64 -0.32 -0.18 -0.10 -0.04 -0.25 -0.18
Oil +3.75 -1.71 -1.44 -0.96 -0.66 +0.15 -0.06 -0.69
Broad Commodities +2.24 -- -0.85 -0.33 +0.33 +0.82 +0.93 +0.74
Gold +2.57 -1.19 -0.71 -0.72 -0.84 -1.07 -1.06 -0.71
Short Term Bonds -0.08 -- +0.04 +0.02 +0.04 +0.05 +0.04 +0.05
Mid Term Bonds -1.05 +0.01 +0.44 +0.32 +0.36 +0.29 +0.35 +0.33
Long Term Bonds -1.41 +0.51 +0.41 -0.04 +0.03 -0.49 -0.45 -0.33
Dollar Index -1.57 +0.46 +0.35 +0.17 +0.05 +0.08 +0.05 -0.14

Risk Assets vs. Safe-Havens Update, 10/11/2011 3:00pm


Patterns from 1:30 continue, albeit with risk assets slightly giving back some gains.  Oil has pulled back to flat, broad commodities remain elevated, and gold has stubbornly stuck to its low range all day.  Bonds are static from last update - mid-term slightly positive, long-term negative but not giving any additional ground.

Risk Assets vs. Safe-Havens Update, 10/11/2011 1:30pm


Equities not showing continued bull momentum... all have pause or retraced some gains.  Oil jumps up to positive from deep negative, and broad commodities now showing most bullish sentiment of the 12 groups.  Long term bonds continue to fall, now clearly in negative territory.

Odd - money appears to be getting freed up from LT bonds, but isn't necessarily flowing into equities yet.  Possible its flowing to oil and commodities, but also possible funds are being freed to flow back into equities for an afteroon bull.

Risk Assets vs. Safe-Havens Update, 10/11/2011 12:00pm


An interesting spread... Nasdaq, broad commodities, and mid term bonds in positive territory.  The rest are mostly flat to yesterday's close, the exceptions being oil and gold, both negative.

Regardless, money appears to continue to gradually move from safe havens towards riskier pursuits.  Note that the riskiest (small caps) have given back some earlier gains, and bonds are not negative... we're not looking at a straight equity bull pattern at the current time.

Risk Assets vs. Safe-Havens Update, 10/11/2011 11:00am


Risk assets are showing good signs, consistently moving back to, or above, flat off of earlier lows.  Nasdaq and small caps in particular showing signs of life.  Oil back more off its lows but still well in negative territory.  Long bonds losing gains, now flat.

Motion towards risk asset bull is being shown... but not at an exaggerated rate.

Risk Assets vs. Safe-Havens Update, 10/11/2011 10:00am


Large Caps, Oil and Gold showing some recovery from pre-market lows.  Bond interest not declining significantly.  Outlook remains fairly neutral with a bias towards safe-havens.

Risk Assets vs. Safe-Havens Update, 10/11/2011 9:00am


Slight risk asset bear trend, with equities giving up yesterday's large bull action and safe haven's slightly up.  Oil and Gold in particular are showing a fairly strong reversal from yesterday's upward strength.

With the exception of Oil and Gold, this RAVS curve is close enough to netural that I do not see it as determining clear trading direction in the next four hours.  There is a equity bear / bond bull pattern in effect, but not an overwhelming one, with risk assets down only 0.5% and safe haven's up an equal amount. 

Recommendation: Watch for the bear trend to pick up steam or reverse before taking decisive action.