Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

The Wax Report - 04/15/2016

|Includes: CF, DORM, HOG, Lakeland Industries, Inc. (LAKE), SNA

Performance - Week Ending 04/15/2016
The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 1.3% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was up 2.3%, the Nasdaq was up 1.8%, the S&P 500 was up 1.6%, the Russell 2000 was up 3.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 11.3%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 8.8%, the Dow is up 3.2%, the Nasdaq is down 1.4%, the S&P 500 is up 1.8%, the Russell 2000 is down 0.4%, and the VIX is lower by 25.2%.

The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 58% cash, 42% equities, and 0% bonds.

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent company ANNUAL financial information as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $34.33. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $29.91, making the current value spread (12.90%).

Fair Warning
I have started to include the Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil - three barrels of crude oil) / 3) in my weekly performance reports and just wanted folks to understand what it is that I am talking about.

Hydrocarbon Prices
WTI Crude ended the week at $40.36, up 1.6%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $43.10, up 2.8%, creating a crude price spread of $2.72, an increase of 23.4% for the week. On the other side of the floor Natural Gas ended the week at $1.90, down 4.5%, RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.4612, down 0.2%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.2357, down 10.3%. This adjusted the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $18.40, up 5.4% for the week.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 9.0%, Brent Crude is higher by 15.6%, Natural Gas is lower by 18.8%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 15.0%, Heating Oil is higher by 9.7%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 22.2%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.19, up 5.3%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.54, down 9.4%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.76, up 1.3%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.12, down 6.7%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.18, up 0.9%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week unchanged at 2.23.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 31.6%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 31.6%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 38.7%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 47.7%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 37.9%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 23.6%.

Baseline Valuation Worksheets
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

Lakeland Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: LAKE) - FYE 01/2015

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) - FYE 12/2015

Dorman Products, Inc. (NASDAQ: DORM) - FYE 12/2015

Snap-On, Inc. (NYSE: SNA) - FYE 12/2015

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) - FYE 12/2015

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for Lakeland Industries ($31-$52), CF Industries ($16-$20), Dorman Products ($47-$55), Snap-On ($84-$91), and Harley-Davidson ($42-$46).

Have a great week.

Wax

Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink

Supporting Documents

  1. Wax_Ink_Portfolio_-_041516.pdf

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.