The Wax Report - Week Ending 05/06/2016

May 07, 2016 9:11 AM ETCVR, JOY, WAB, AOS, KWR, KMI
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Baseline equity research, all cap value, Long Only, Value

Contributor Since 2007

I manage Wax Ink, an equity research firm comprised of individual investors not licensed or registered with any government agency. I have been an all cap value investor and independent equity researcher for the past 30 years.

The Wax Ink Portfolio was down 6.5% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was down 0.2%, the Nasdaq was down 0.8%, the S&P 500 was down 0.4%, the Russell 2000 was down 1.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 6.2%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 13.7%, the Dow is up 1.8%, the Nasdaq is down 5.4%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, the Russell 2000 is down 1.9%, and the VIX is lower by 19.2%.

The portfolio breakdown remains roughly 60% cash, 40% equities, and 0% bonds.

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent company ANNUAL financial information as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $34.08. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio was $30.57, making the current portfolio growth factor 10.31%.

Fair Warning
I have had Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) on my watch list for a very long time and was able to add it to the portfolio on Friday, which is the reason for the large weekly decline in my portfolio value.

Hydrocarbon Prices
I have started to include the Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil - three barrels of crude oil) / 3) in my weekly performance reports and just wanted folks to understand what it is that I am talking about.

WTI Crude ended the week at $44.66, down 2.7%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $45.37, down 4.2%, creating a crude price spread of $0.70, a decrease of 51.0% for the week. Distillate RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.4962, down 6.7%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.3373, down 3.5%, moving the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $16.54, down 13.0% for the week. Natural Gas ended the week at $2.10, down 3.7%.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 20.6%, Brent Crude is higher by 21.7%, Natural Gas is lower by 10.3%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 17.7%, Heating Oil is higher by 18.7%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 9.8%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.21, down 4.7%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.75, down 3.3%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.71, down 10.1%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.33, down 8.3%. Lastly, the 5

Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.26, up 4.1%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week up 1.7% at 2.35.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 30.5%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 22.2%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 42.7%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 37.9%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 33.7%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 19.5%.

Baseline Valuation Worksheets
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

Chicago Rivet and Machine Company (NYSE: CVR) - FYE 12/2015

Joy Global, Inc. (NYSE: JOY) - FYE 10/2015

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (NYSE: WAB) - FYE 12/2015

AO Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) - FYE 12/2015

Quaker Chemical Corporation (NYSE: KWR) - FYE 12/2015

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for Chicago Rivet ($41-$50), Joy Global ($32-$41), Westinghouse Air Brake ($55-$60), AO Smith ($47-$54), and Quaker Chemical ($63-$67).

Have a great week.


Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink

Supporting Documents

  1. Wax_Ink_Portfolio_-_050616.pdf

Disclosure: I am/we are long KMI.

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