The Wax Report - Week Ending 06/17/2016

Jun. 18, 2016 8:14 AM ETTDW, TGI, POWL, NOV, OIS
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Baseline equity research, all cap value, Long Only, Value

Contributor Since 2007

I manage Wax Ink, an equity research firm comprised of individual investors not licensed or registered with any government agency. I have been an all cap value investor and independent equity researcher for the past 30 years.

he energy heavy Wax Ink Portfolio was down 3.5% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was down 1.1%, the Nasdaq was down 1.9%, the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, the Russell 2000 was down 1.6%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 14.0%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 17.3% on a per share held basis, the Dow is up 1.4%, the Nasdaq is down 4.1%, the S&P 500 is up 1.3%, the Russell 2000 is up 0.8%, and the VIX is higher by 6.6%.

Portfolio Summary
The portfolio breakdown is roughly 57% cash, 43% equities, and 0% bonds. The current cash value on a per share basis is $28.91 and the current equity value on a per share basis is $22.18 making the average per share price $51.13. The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $30.92. For the current week ending, the average market valuation of all equities held in the Wax Ink Portfolio was $28.86, making the current portfolio growth factor 6.65%.

Hydrocarbon Prices
Two numbers often watched by oil traders are Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil - three barrels of crude oil) / 3). These numbers are now apart of The Wax Report.

WTI Crude ended the week at $47.98, down 2.2%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $49.17, down 2.7%, creating a crude price spread of $1.19, a decrease of 19.0% for the week. Distillate RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.5053, down 3.5%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.4817, down 2.3%, moving the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $14.91, down 5.7% for the week. Natural Gas ended the week at $2.62, up 2.3%.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 29.5%, Brent Crude is higher by 31.9%, Natural Gas is higher by 12.0%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 18.4%, Heating Oil is higher by 31.5%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 4.1%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.09, down 5.2%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.59, down 1.9%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.73, down 5.2%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.30, down 2.3%. Bringing up the rear, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 1.31, down 2.2%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week down 1.3% at 2.23.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 37.4%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 29.3%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 41.1%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 39.3%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 31.1%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 23.6%.

Baseline Valuation Estimates and Worksheets
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent SEC 10-K ANNUAL financial data as reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets were either created or updated last week for the following companies. Please note that worksheets are updated or created basis the most current SEC 10-K ANNUAL filing.

Tidewater, Inc. (NYSE: TDW) - FYE 03/2016

Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE: TGI) - FYE 03/2016

Powell Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: POWL) - FYE 09/2015

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) - FYE 12/2015

Oil States International, Inc. (NYSE: OIS) - FYE 12/2015

Estimate Revisions and Additions
Baseline value estimates were either created or revised this week for Tidewater ($34-$42), Triumph Group ($20-$24), Powell Industries ($34-$40), National Oilwell Varco ($50-$59), and Oil States ($46-$56).

Have a great week.


Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
Copyright © 2016 Wax Ink

Supporting Documents

  1. Wax_Ink_Portfolio_-_061716.pdf

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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