The miracle baby that has become the Wax Ink Portfolio was down 0.3% for the week.
By comparison, the Dow was up 0.3%, the Nasdaq was up 2.0%, the S&P 500 was up 0.1%, the Russell 2000 was up 0.03%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was up 0.3%.
Year to date (there are only 30 days remaining until the Nikini Full Moon Poya), the Wax Ink portfolio is down 3.6%, while the Dow is up 8.4%, the Nasdaq is up 14.3%, the S&P 500 is up 8.3%, the Russell 2000 is up 4.3%, and the VIX is lower by 20.2%.
The portfolio breakdown is roughly 54% cash, 46% equities, and 0% bonds. The current value of portfolio cash on a per share basis is $25.41 and the current value of portfolio equities on a per share basis is $21.60, making the average per share held price $47.01.
The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $26.92 and the average market closing price of all equities held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $24.35, making the current portfolio fair value factor 9.5%.
WTI Crude ended the week at $44.23, down 3.9%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $46.71, down 4.2%, creating a crude price spread of $2.48, an decrease of 9.2%. Distillate RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.4984, down 5.9%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.4482, down 2.4%, moving the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3) to $18.00, an increase of 5.2% for the week. Henry Hub Natural Gas ended the week down 5.9% at $2.86.
Year to date WTI Crude is lower by 17.7%, Brent Crude is lower by 17.8%, the WTI/Brent Crude Spread is lower by 20.0%, Henry Hub Natural Gas is lower by 23.1%, RBOB Gasoline is lower by 10.3%, Heating Oil is lower by 16.2%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is higher by 4.3%.
Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.96, up 3.2%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 2.38, up 3.5%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.60, down 16.7%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 2.78, up 6.1%. Lastly, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 2.10, unchanged, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week up 1.0% at 2.93.
Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is up 3.7%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 1.7%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 9.1%, the 10 year AAA Muni is up 8.6%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is up 1.9%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 3.3%.
I am a deep value, long-term buy and hold investor with an average equity holding period of 60 months (1825 days).
Wax Ink has no position in any stock mentioned in this report.
Worksheet Changes and Notes
The worksheet continues to evolve, with changes to the RETURN ON $10K section becoming more centered on a 5 year period as opposed to a 10 year period, something you will start to notice over the next several weeks. I also continue to shorten the WHAT THEY DO section, trying to keep that information to the barest of minimums, and have added a RESEARCH NOTES section. You will also notice that I have change the summary information. Stay tuned!
Please know that the information I provide to everyone for free is the same information that clients receive. The only difference is what you see on the free side is on average eight weeks older than when originally produced. Worksheets are still produced one worksheet at a time with much of the information compiled from my historical information. I just wanted to remind everyone regarding the time lapse between when the worksheet was produced versus when the worksheet was posted here.
Baseline Valuation Estimates and Worksheets
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.
Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent SEC 10-K ANNUAL financial data as reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.
Worksheets were either created or updated during the week for the following companies.
Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) - FYE 12/2016
Best Buy Company, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) - FYE 02/2017
DMC Global, Inc. (Nasdaq: BOOM) - FYE 12/2016
3M Company, Inc. (NYSE: MMM) - FYE 12/2016
Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline valuation estimates are determined through fundamental analysis of the listed company's most recent annual financial information and are intended as a starting point for continued due diligence. Baseline valuation estimates were either created or updated during the week for the following companies:
Alcoa, Inc. - $58
Best Buy Company, Inc. - $50
DMC Global, Inc. - $7
3M Company, Inc. - $70
Current Growth Estimates
Current growth estimates are determined utilizing current pricing levels, year over year earnings growth, dividend yield, the current PE ratio, and an earnings growth estimate. Because current growth estimates are EXTREMELY volatile, what is presented here is a single current growth estimate. Current growth estimates were either created or updated during the week for the following companies:
Alcoa, Inc. - $42
Best Buy Company, Inc. - $59
DMC Global, Inc. - $13
3M Company, Inc. - $200
Current Momentum Estimates
Current Momentum estimates are determined by utilizing current pricing levels, current earnings, year over year earnings growth, estimated future earnings growth, and current bond yields. The use of future anything makes the estimate result EXTREMELY volatile. Current Momentum estimates were either updated or created during the week for the following companies:
Alcoa, Inc. - $52
Best Buy Company, Inc. - $66
DMC Global, Inc. - ($2)
3M Company, Inc. - $107
Future Value Estimates
Future Value estimates utilize year over year price changes and year over year dividend payments to determine a stock return on investment. The stock return on investment is then used to advance the recent price year by year for a 5 year period. Future Value estimates contain EXCESSIVE risk because past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Future Value estimates were either updated or created during the week for the following companies:
Alcoa, Inc. - $31
Best Buy Company, Inc. - $63
DMC Global, Inc. - $9
3M Company, Inc. - $316
Investment Investigation Summaries
Alcoa, Inc. - Neutral - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) are mixed regarding support for investment investigation
Best Buy Company, Inc. - Neutral - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) are mixed regarding support for investment investigation
DMC Global, Inc. - Negative - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) no longer support investment investigation
3M Company, Inc. - Positive - the current baseline valuation and key performance indicators (KPIs) support investment investigation
Have a great week!!
Wax Ink is a baseline equity valuation company not licensed or registered with any government agency
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.