My DisclaimerI could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you about this company is that I am not a shareholder.
My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.
Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
What They DoGibraltar Industries is a manufacturer and distributor of roof and foundation ventilation products, mail and package storage products, rain dispersion products and roof ventilation accessories, fabricated bar grating for industrial flooring, expanded and perforated metal, plus expansion joints and structural bearings for roadways and bridges. Industry peers include American Buildings Company, Simpson Manufacturing, and Commercial Metals.
Short-Term TargetMy current short-term target for the stock is $41.54, with an initial trailing stop set at $39.46. With a recent price of $40.06, upward price movement will find resistance at $42.13, and again at $44.91, with final resistance coming at $46.08. Downward price movement will find support at $37.67, and again at $36.00, leaving support at $35.00.
Momentum TargetMy momentum target for the stock is $31. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.
Growth TargetMy growth target for the stock is $41. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.
Fair Value InvestingFair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $45.
Prior Average ValuationsMy average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $32. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.09 per share and the average PE Ratio was 19.
Five Year Growth of $10KIf you had invested $10K in the stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 537.92 shares of stock with a cost basis of $18.59. per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $35.59 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $0 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $19,145 for an overall return of 91%.
There you are, as promised, short and to the point.
WaxPosted on 03/20/19
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.