Positive Free Cash Flow Growth.
Positive Earnings Growth.
Is it time to sell?
I am not a licensed or registered investment professional. I currently own NO shares of the company mentioned in this post, nor do I follow the company mentioned in this post. In addition, I received a fee for producing the linked worksheet and an attending report.
Past and future gains contained herein are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Valuations, while given as a specific amount, are always within a valuation range. Investors should be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company, but the truth is, I know very little about this company. My intent with this post, is to provide you with a brief overview of my various company valuations, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.
What They Do
Deere and Company manufactures and distributes agriculture, turf, construction, earthmoving, material handling and timber harvesting equipment and related service parts for medium and utility tractors; loaders; combines, corn pickers, cotton and sugarcane harvesters and related front-end equipment and sugarcane loaders; tillage, seeding and application equipment, including sprayers, nutrient management and soil preparation machinery; hay and forage equipment, including self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments, balers and mowers; turf and utility quipment, including riding lawn equipment and walk-behind mowers, golf course equipment, utility vehicles, and commercial mowing equipment. Industry peers include Caterpillar Inc., Kubota Corporation, and Case Construction Equipment.
My current short-term target for the stock is $180.62, with an initial trailing stop set at $155.92. Based on a recent price of $158.29, upward price movement will find resistance at $160.15 and at $165.90, with final resistance found at $170.82. Downward price movement will find support at $155.43 and again at $152.88, with final support found at $143.65.
There are many different metrics available to help investors determine the theoretical volatility of a stock as compared to the volatility of the entire market. To me, the beta ratio is the metric that is the most representative of a stock’s volatility. A beta ratio of less than 1 means that the security’s price will be less volatile than the market, while a beta ratio greater than 1 indicates that the security’s price will be more volatile than the market. My current beta ratio for this stock is 1.21.
Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% of net income came from tax benefits, while 0% of net income came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.
My momentum target for the stock is $206. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.
Long-Term Growth Target
My current long-term growth target for the stock is $207. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.
Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (10/30/15), you would have received 117 shares of stock with a cost basis of $85.54 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (10/30/2019), you would have closed at $173.82 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $301 in regular and special dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $20,320 a gain of 103% excluding regular and special dividends.
Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied by my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 6.63%.
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.
Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 60 insider trades involving 449,350 shares of stock. Of those 60 insider trades, 41 were Buys involving 289,223 shares of stock, and 19 were Sells involving 160,127 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of 1.8 to 1.
Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2014 through FY 2018 was $82. The stock price during that time period averaged $104, earnings averaged $8.89 per share, and the average PE Ratio was 12. The current PE Ratio is 10.
Enterprise and Equity Values
As a fair value investor, I am looking for companies that have low debt and generate lots of cash. To me, the easiest way to highlight a company’s ability to generate cash is to compare the Enterprise Value to the Equity Value, what I call my E2E Ratio. What I am looking for with this ratio is something close to or above 1, meaning the company generates cash at a rate equal to or faster than it generates debt. For this company my enterprise value (market cap plus debt less cash) is $289 and my equity value (market cap plus cash less debt) is $28, making my E2E Ratio, 0.10.
Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My most recent fair value estimate for this stock as an on-going concern is $203. My worksheet target prices are derivatives of my fair value estimate.
Deere and Company (NYSE: DE) – FYE 10/2019 FAIRLY VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $122 initiate target, but below my most recent $253 reduce target. Please See Linked Worksheet
There you are, short and, hopefully, to the point.
Revised on 02/04/20
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.