So the miners have indeed rallied. The rally has been so violent that it feels due for a pullback. So if I assume that gold miners have broken out decisively from a long term falling wedge (as I do), what pattern might we expect that both a) shakes out some momentum chasers, and b) suggests even larger long term gains? A reverse head-and-shoulders would seem to do the trick. If that winds up being how this plays out, I imagine we should expect a reversal to the downside sometime soon. Here is what I imagine it might look like for GDX:
This scenario would suggest taking some profit here and loading up after a pullback. It is of course quite possible that these miners continue churning higher. I would certainly rather just hold long term than be caught empty-handed because I do think this breakout is for real and has much higher to go. But for the swing traders (and I have a bit of that in my blood), this looks like a fun gamble .
Disclosure: I am/we are long GDX, GDXJ.