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Health Care REIT Update For 10-25-13

Health Care Update for Q4-13
Yields are calculated on Q3-13 dividends. LTC has announced a 9% increase in its Q4-13 dividend to $0.17/share/month. OHI has announced an increase to $0.48/share in Q4. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2013 FFO projection.
 

 


  Share Price 13 FFO Estimate   Div/ Percent Change LTM
Company 1-01 10-25 1-01 10-25 Yield FFO Price Pr+Div 13 FFO Target Div

Health Care REIT HCN 61.29 66.47 3.91 3.78 4.60 80.95 8.45 12.20 -3.32 8.47 3.38
Health Care Prop HCP 45.16 43.05 2.97 2.98 4.88 70.47 -4.67 -1.18 0.34 -1.27 5.00
Health Care Reality HR 24.01 24.71 1.39 1.07 4.86 112.15 2.92 6.66 -23.02 3.32 0.00
Health Care Trust HTA 9.90 11.71 0.66 0.65 4.91 88.46 18.28 24.09 -1.52 8.89 0.00
LTC Property LTC 35.19 40.19 2.43 2.38 4.63 78.15 14.21 18.61 -2.06 19.24 0.00
Med Prop Trust MPW 11.96 13.34 1.07 1.00 6.00 80.00 11.54 18.23 -6.54 -0.46 0.00
Nat'l Health Inv NHI 56.53 63.94 3.39 3.44 4.60 85.47 13.11 17.01 1.47 11.61 9.70
Omega Health OHI 23.85 33.89 2.24 2.52 5.55 74.60 42.10 48.01 12.50 32.29 11.90
Sabra Health Care SBRA 21.72 27.27 1.72 1.83 4.99 74.32 25.55 30.25 6.40 25.53 3.03
Senior Housing SNH 23.64 25.30 1.84 1.71 6.17 91.23 7.02 11.97 -7.07 4.35 2.63
Universal Health UHT 50.61 45.60 3.01 2.84 5.48 88.03 -9.90 -6.19 -5.65 0.00 1.63
Ventas VTR 64.72 67.33 3.99 4.10 3.98 65.37 4.03 7.14 2.76 5.01 8.06

Average           5.05 82.43 11.05 15.57 -2.14 9.75 3.78

Dividend dates are:

HCN: 08-19-13 HCP: 08-19-13 HR : 08-29-13 HTA: 10-04-13 LTC: monthly MPW: 10-10-13
NHI: 11-07-13 OHI: 11-15-13 SBRA: 08-29-13 SNH: 11-20-13 UHT: 09-30-13 VTR: 09-27-13
Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 10-25
The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH look wrong to me. The 2013 FFO projection is four times the Q1-13 FFO. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K.
 

 


  FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 13 FFO Range
Co. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Range

HCN 3.12 3.13 3.41 3.51 3.78 4.05 2.93 7.69 7.14 18.94 17.58 16.41 380 346 9.69%
HCP 2.14 2.19 2.69 2.76 2.98 3.11 2.60 7.97 4.36 15.60 14.45 13.84 300 294 2.17%
HR 1.65 1.29 1.15 1.31 1.07 1.45 13.91 -18.32 35.51 18.86 23.09 17.04 140 94 35.11%
HTA 0.00 0.38 0.51 0.61 0.65 0.69 19.61 6.56 6.15 19.20 18.02 16.97 65 63 3.28%
LTC 1.89 1.88 2.15 2.26 2.38 2.65 5.12 5.31 11.34 17.78 16.89 15.17 241 235 2.65%
MPW 0.79 0.66 0.71 0.90 1.00 1.12 26.76 11.11 12.00 14.82 13.34 11.91 110 100 11.11%
NHI 2.33 2.76 2.88 3.18 3.44 3.76 10.42 8.18 9.30 20.11 18.59 17.01 355 324 9.75%
OHI 1.47 1.61 1.89 2.19 2.52 2.68 15.87 15.07 6.35 15.47 13.45 12.65 256 249 3.20%
SBRA 0.00 0.00 1.31 1.41 1.83 2.11 7.63 29.79 15.30 19.34 14.90 12.92 185 149 25.53%
SNH 1.69 1.70 1.73 1.75 1.71 1.78 1.16 -2.29 4.09 14.46 14.80 14.21 182 169 7.43%
UHT 2.80 2.61 2.57 2.84 2.84 2.90 10.51 0.00 2.11 16.06 16.06 15.72 284 284 0.00%
VTR 2.66 2.85 3.37 3.80 4.10 4.30 12.76 7.89 4.88 17.72 16.42 15.66 412 392 5.26%

Average           10.77 6.71 8.13 17.36 16.46 14.96

Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

Mar 2007: 15.23 June: 13.19 Sept: 14.18 Dec: 14.55
Mar 2008: 14.17 June: 13.27 Sept: 15.95 Dec: 12.38
Mar 2009: 9.42 June: 10.84 Sept: 12.61 Dec: 13.90
Mar 2010: 12.61 June: 14.10 Sept: 15.45 Dec: 15.41
Mar 2011: 15.07 June: 14.62 Sept: 12.91 Dec: 14.95
Mar 2012: 14.21 June: 15.25 Sept: 15.05 Dec: 15.82
Mar 2013: 17.18 June: 15.84 Sept: Dec:

Health Care Price/FAD Ratios 10-25 -13
For REITs not providing FAD data, AFFO numbers are used. 2013 numbers are from guidance or from run rate performance.
There are several REITs for which I am unable to harvest 2010 FAD data.

 

 


  FAD/Share % Growth Price/FAD Div/FAD Div Growth Current
Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 10-11 11-12 12-13 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 Yield

HCN 2.74 2.84 2.96 3.30 3.65 4.23 11.49 23.40 22.46 20.14 100.70 100.00 92.73 3.62 3.50 4.60
HCP 0.00 2.14 2.22 2.48 na 3.74 11.71 20.12 19.39 17.36 89.72 90.09 84.68 3.23 4.17 4.88
HR 0.00 1.36 1.38 1.34 na 1.47 -2.90 18.17 17.91 18.44 88.24 86.96 89.55 0.00 0.00 4.86
HTA 0.00 0.44 0.53 0.56 na 20.45 5.66 26.61 22.09 20.91 0.00 108.49 102.68 na na 4.91
LTC 1.82 2.05 2.18 2.34 12.64 6.34 7.34 19.60 18.44 17.18 81.95 85.32 79.49 0.00 10.71 4.63
MPW 0.72 0.81 0.81 0.94 12.50 0.00 16.05 16.47 16.47 14.19 98.77 98.77 85.11 0.00 0.00 6.00
NHI 2.81 2.90 3.15 3.40 3.20 8.62 7.94 22.05 20.30 18.81 89.66 85.08 86.47 13.04 3.08 4.60
OHI 0.00 1.89 2.19 2.25 na 15.87 2.74 17.93 15.47 15.06 84.66 80.37 81.78 8.11 10.00 5.43
SBRA 0.00 1.51 1.59 1.76 na 5.30 10.69 18.06 17.15 15.49 84.77 83.02 77.27 na na 4.99
SNH 0.00 1.51 1.56 1.57 na 3.31 0.64 16.75 16.22 16.11 100.66 100.00 99.36 2.70 2.63 6.17
UHT 0.00 2.76 2.61 2.76 na -5.43 5.75 16.52 17.47 16.52 88.41 95.02 90.58 0.83 1.64 5.48
VTR 0.00 3.28 3.60 3.96 na 9.76 10.00 20.53 18.70 17.00 70.12 68.89 67.68 7.48 7.83 3.98

Average         6.14 7.26 19.69 18.51 17.27 88.88 90.17 86.45

Disclosure: I am long LTC, OHI, VTR.