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Grocery Portfolio 12-18-13

With GIS having an earnings disappointment today, I wanted to refresh my stats. This is a sector where I do not follow the operation metrics. I have no special skills in this sector. Anyone copying my holdings should not expect to capture any extra return. I really like the sector for its high dividend growth, dependable dividend growth, and long history of dividend growth. Note - my consensus analyst ratings are from the end of Q2-13 - thus they are a bit stale.

Grocery Portfolio 12-18-13

The Q4-13 div is used for yield calculations. GIS has already declared an increased dividend for Q3-13. HRL has already declared an increased dividend for Q1-14. The second Div/EPS ratio has the 2014 EPS projection as the denominator. HRL purchased Skippy and share prices jumped. FLO make an offer for Hostess and share prices jumped. FLO had a three-for-two split on 6-19-13. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q4-12. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q4-08.

 

 


    12-31-12 12-18 Div Current Div/ Div/ Percent Change
Company Price Price /Quater Yield EPS13 EPS14 Price Pr+Div EPS13 Target Div 1yr Div 5yr

ArDanMidlnd ADM 27.39 43.14 0.190 1.76 33 % 24 % 57.50 60.28 -27.01 44.12 8.57 7.14
Campbell CPB 34.89 43.33 0.313 2.88 48 % 46 % 24.19 27.77 2.76 14.23 7.76 5.00
Coke KO 36.25 40.02 0.280 2.80 53 % 49 % 10.40 13.49 -4.11 6.13 9.80 9.47
ConAgra CAG 29.50 31.79 0.250 3.15 46 % 41 % 7.76 11.15 3.85 8.41 0.00 6.32
Colgate CL 52.27 64.64 0.340 2.10 48 % 44 % 23.67 26.27 -4.07 19.77 9.68 14.00
Ingredion INGR 64.43 66.88 0.380 2.27 29 % 26 % 3.80 6.16 -10.39 -4.08 46.15 34.29
Clorox CLX 73.22 93.40 0.710 3.04 66 % 61 % 27.56 31.44 0.00 15.53 10.94 10.87
Flowers FLO 15.35 22.10 0.113 2.04 46 % 41 % 43.97 46.91 25.97 40.50 5.44 13.73
General Mills GIS 40.42 49.73 0.380 3.06 57 % 52 % 23.03 26.79 0.37 17.82 15.15 15.35
Hershey HSY 72.22 95.80 0.485 2.03 52 % 47 % 32.65 35.34 4.51 33.54 15.48 12.55
Hormel HRL 31.21 44.85 0.200 1.78 41 % 36 % 43.70 46.27 0.52 52.47 17.65 23.24
Kellogg K 55.85 60.53 0.460 3.04 49 % 45 % 8.38 11.67 4.41 15.52 4.55 7.06
Kimberly-Clark KMB 84.43 105.14 0.810 3.08 57 % 53 % 24.53 28.37 1.61 18.11 9.46 7.93
Lancaster LANC 69.19 87.40 0.440 2.01 44 % 41 % 26.32 28.23 -0.99 3.14 15.79 10.88
McCormick MKC 63.53 68.05 0.340 2.00 43 % 39 % 7.11 9.26 -5.65 9.03 9.68 8.33
Pepsi PEP 68.43 81.42 0.568 2.79 52 % 48 % 18.98 22.30 -1.13 19.22 5.58 6.71
Procter&Gamble PG 67.89 82.38 0.603 2.93 60 % 56 % 21.34 24.89 2.27 15.85 7.11 10.13
JM Smucker SJM 86.24 101.86 0.580 2.28 43 % 40 % 18.11 20.80 3.07 26.47 11.54 16.25

Average         2.50 48 % 44 % 23.50 26.52 -0.22 19.77 6.18 12.18

The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 27.59% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 28.67% year to date.
The KXI [Consumer Staples ETF] is up 14.79% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is up 16.06%.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.88% and the sector average yield [on Q4 Divs] at 2.5% - the spread is -38 basis points.
* The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

Dividend dates are:

ADM : 12-04-13 CPB: 01-26-14 KO : 12-15-13 CAG: 12-02-13 CL: 11-14-13
INGR : 10-24-13 CLX : 02-14-14 FLO: 12-19-13 GIS : 02-02-14
HSY: 12-12-13 HRL : 02-14-14 K : 12-15-13 KMB: 01-02-14
LANC: 12-29-13 MKC: 01-13-14 PEP: 01-01-14 PG: 11-14-13 SJM: 12-01-13

Historical yields for the sector:

Mar 2010: 2.77% June: 2.92% Sept: 2.92% Dec: 2.78%
Mar 2011: 2.84% June: 2.76% Sept: 2.94% Dec: 2.81%
Mar 2012: 2.81% June: 2.82% Sept: 2.80% Dec: 2.81%
Mar 2013: 2.42% June: 2.47% Sept: 2.58% Dec:

Price/Earnings Ratios 12-18
CPB, CAG, CLX, GIS, HRL,LANC, PG and SJM have started their fiscal 2014s

 

 


  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS 13 EPS Range
Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Range

ADM 3.06 3.47 2.30 2.27 3.21 13.40 -33.72 -1.30 41.41 18.76 19.00 13.44 3.50 2.86 28.19%
CPB 2.47 2.54 2.44 2.61 2.74 2.83 -3.94 6.97 4.98 17.76 16.60 15.81 2.40 2.64 -9.20%
KO 1.75 1.92 2.01 2.10 2.27 9.71 4.69 4.48 8.10 19.91 19.06 17.63 2.36 2.21 7.14%
CAG 1.74 1.75 1.84 2.16 2.42 0.57 5.14 17.39 12.04 17.28 14.72 13.14 2.48 2.40 3.70%
CL 2.42 2.52 2.68 2.83 3.11 4.13 6.35 5.60 9.89 24.12 22.84 20.78 3.20 3.04 5.65%
INGR 3.24 4.68 5.57 5.26 5.91 44.44 19.02 -5.57 12.36 12.01 12.71 11.32 6.40 5.45 18.06%
CLX 4.24 3.93 4.10 4.31 4.62 -7.31 4.33 5.12 7.19 22.78 21.67 20.22 4.74 4.55 4.41%
FLO 0.66 0.64 0.69 0.97 1.11 -3.03 7.81 40.58 14.43 32.03 22.78 19.91 1.21 0.85 37.11%
GIS 2.30 2.48 2.56 2.69 2.92 7.83 3.23 5.08 8.55 19.43 18.49 17.03 3.27 2.96 11.52%
HSY 2.55 2.82 3.24 3.71 4.10 10.59 14.89 14.51 10.51 29.57 25.82 23.37 4.19 4.01 4.85%
HRL 1.51 1.74 1.86 1.95 2.22 15.23 6.90 4.84 13.85 24.11 23.00 20.20 2.40 2.04 18.46%
K 3.30 3.38 3.61 3.79 4.09 2.42 6.80 4.99 7.92 16.77 15.97 14.80 4.25 3.94 8.18%
KMB 4.68 4.80 5.25 5.68 6.06 2.56 9.38 8.19 6.69 20.03 18.51 17.35 6.25 5.90 6.16%
LANC 4.07 3.84 3.45 3.99 4.29 -5.65 -10.16 15.65 7.52 25.33 21.90 20.37 4.35 4.23 3.01%
MKC 2.65 2.79 3.04 3.17 3.49 5.28 8.96 4.28 10.09 22.38 21.47 19.50 3.57 3.40 5.36%
PEP 4.13 4.40 4.10 4.36 4.73 6.54 -6.82 6.34 8.49 19.86 18.67 17.21 4.90 4.63 6.19%
PG 4.11 3.95 3.85 4.05 4.30 -3.89 -2.53 5.19 6.17 21.40 20.34 19.16 4.42 4.25 4.20%
SJM 4.35 4.81 4.73 5.37 5.79 10.57 -1.66 13.53 7.82 21.53 18.97 17.59 6.25 5.70 10.24%

Average           2.15 8.66 11.00 21.39 19.59 17.71      

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

 

 


Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds EPS My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Dividend
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / EPS

ArDanMidlnd ADM 1.76% 8.90% 10.66% A 3.00 11.00 -0.34 2.8 9.24 33.48
Campbell CPB 2.88% 6.50% 9.38% A 1.00 10.00 -0.62 3.1 7.12 47.89
Coke KO 2.80% 7.80% 10.60% A+ 1.00 10.00 0.60 2.1 7.20 53.33
ConAgra CAG 3.15% 7.50% 10.65% BBB- 1.00 10.50 0.15 2.1 7.35 46.30
Colgate CL 2.10% 8.20% 10.30% AA- 1.00 10.00 0.30 2.7 7.90 48.06
Ingredion INGR 2.27% 9.10% 11.37% none 2.00 11.00 0.37 2.4 8.73 28.90
Clorox CLX 3.04% 7.50% 10.54% BB 1.50 11.00 -0.46 2.9 7.96 65.89
Flowers FLO 2.04% 9.50% 11.54% none 3.00 11.20 0.34 2.4 9.16 46.39
General Mills GIS 3.06% 7.70% 10.76% BBB+ 1.00 10.50 0.26 2.2 7.44 56.51
Hershey HSY 2.03% 9.30% 11.33% A 1.00 10.00 1.33 2.4 7.97 52.29
Hormel HRL 1.78% 9.50% 11.28% A 1.00 10.00 1.28 2.8 8.22 41.03
Kellogg K 3.04% 7.70% 10.74% BBB+ 2.00 10.50 0.24 2.8 7.46 48.55
Kimberly-Clark KMB 3.08% 7.50% 10.58% BBB- 2.00 10.80 -0.22 3.0 7.72 57.04
Lancaster LANC 2.01% 8.90% 10.91% A 2.00 10.50 0.41 3.0 8.49 44.11
McCormick MKC 2.00% 8.40% 10.40% none 1.50 10.30 0.10 2.8 8.30 42.90
Pepsi PEP 2.79% 7.50% 10.29% A- 2.00 10.40 -0.11 2.3 7.61 52.06
Procter&Gamble PG 2.93% 7.40% 10.33% A- 1.50 10.20 0.13 2.2 7.27 59.51
JM Smucker SJM 2.28% 8.30% 10.58% AA 1.20 10.10 0.48 2.5 7.82 43.20

Average   2.50% 8.18% 10.68%         2.58

Disclosure: I am long CL, CLX, HRL, GIS, PEP, PG, SJM.