BDC Stats 12-20-13
Dec. 21, 2013 9:55 AM ET
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Dividend Investing, Growth At A Reasonable Price
Contributor Since 2011
I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do the talking. I am only taking dictation as the data tells its message.
BDCs 12-20-13
Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q4-13 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The dividend to NAV ratio is a measure of safety and efficiency. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2013 EPS projection and the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q4-13 dividend from the Q4-12 dividend. Special dividends are not included in this data. ARCC will pay a special dividend of $0.05/share payable on 12-31-13 and again on 3-28-14. FDUS will pay a special dividend of $0.38/share payable 12-20-13. MAIN will pay a special dividend of $0.25/share on 12-24-13. FSC and FULL have cut their first quarter dividend - and that new rate is temporarily encoded as a Q4-12 div to show their forward yield
| Share Price | Div/ | Div/ | Div/ | Div/ | Q3-13 | Price | YTD Percent Change | LTM | LTM | |||||||
| Company_name_and_ticker | 1-01 | 12-20 | Yield | EPS13 | EPS14 | NIIltm | NAV | NAV | NAV | Price | Pr+Div | EPS | Target | Div | NAV | |
| American Cap | (ACAS) | 12.02 | 15.21 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.54 | 0.78 | 26.54 | 26.54 | -20.95 | 22.32 | na | 12.36 |
| Apollo Invest | (AINV) | 8.36 | 8.48 | 9.43 | 92.0 | 90.9 | 93.4 | 9.8 | 8.30 | 1.02 | 1.44 | 11.00 | -1.14 | 5.09 | 0.00 | -1.78 |
| Ares Capital | (ARCC) | 17.50 | 17.59 | 8.64 | 92.7 | 91.6 | 94.9 | 9.4 | 16.35 | 1.08 | 0.51 | 7.03 | -1.20 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 3.88 |
| BlackRock | (BKCC) | 10.06 | 9.36 | 11.11 | 133.3 | 110.6 | 149.7 | 11.1 | 9.38 | 1.00 | -6.96 | 3.38 | -22.77 | 0.81 | 0.00 | -1.78 |
| Fidus Invest | (FDUS) | 16.45 | 20.54 | 7.40 | 110.9 | 85.4 | 109.3 | 9.5 | 15.98 | 1.29 | 24.86 | 33.41 | -19.88 | 18.92 | 0.00 | 4.65 |
| Fifth St | (FSC) | 10.42 | 9.25 | 10.81 | 96.1 | 94.3 | 98.8 | 10.1 | 9.85 | 0.94 | -11.23 | -2.35 | -6.31 | -5.04 | -13.05 | -0.71 |
| Full Circle | (FULL) | 7.43 | 7.15 | 11.75 | 109.1 | 107.7 | 114.2 | 10.5 | 7.48 | 0.96 | -3.77 | 6.69 | -4.94 | 10.00 | -9.09 | -12.10 |
| Gladstone Inv | (GAIN) | 6.96 | 7.67 | 7.82 | 84.5 | 85.7 | 72.5 | 7.0 | 9.12 | 0.84 | 10.20 | 17.39 | 29.09 | -11.11 | 0.00 | 2.13 |
| Golub Cap | (GBDC) | 15.98 | 18.43 | 6.95 | 97.7 | 93.4 | 98.9 | 8.5 | 15.21 | 1.21 | 15.33 | 21.34 | 2.34 | 5.88 | 0.00 | 4.18 |
| Gladstone Cap | (GLAD) | 8.16 | 9.56 | 8.79 | 100.0 | 97.7 | 95.4 | 9.8 | 9.81 | 0.97 | 17.16 | 26.59 | -2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.85 |
| Horizon | (HRZN) | 14.92 | 13.75 | 10.04 | 100.0 | 95.2 | 99.5 | 9.3 | 14.95 | 0.92 | -7.84 | 0.71 | -9.21 | -5.95 | 0.00 | -8.90 |
| Hercules | (HTGC) | 11.13 | 16.44 | 6.81 | 91.1 | 86.2 | 95.3 | 11.1 | 10.42 | 1.58 | 47.71 | 55.26 | 12.84 | 38.76 | 16.67 | 10.62 |
| Kayne Ander | (KED) | 24.44 | 26.48 | 6.87 | 75.8 | 70.8 | 93.3 | 6.9 | 27.84 | 0.95 | 8.35 | 13.93 | 25.00 | 22.79 | 5.81 | 16.49 |
| Kohlberg | (KCAP) | 9.19 | 8.34 | 13.43 | 123.1 | 109.8 | 123.4 | 13.6 | 8.02 | 1.04 | -9.25 | -0.11 | -10.78 | -1.68 | 16.67 | 2.56 |
| Main St. | (MAIN) | 30.51 | 32.74 | 5.68 | 92.5 | 81.6 | 91.1 | 9.9 | 20.01 | 1.64 | 7.31 | 12.90 | -1.47 | 25.38 | 3.33 | 14.41 |
| Medley Cap | (MCC) | 14.56 | 14.20 | 10.42 | 96.7 | 94.3 | 96.7 | 11.6 | 12.70 | 1.12 | -2.47 | 5.15 | 5.52 | 2.86 | 2.78 | 0.79 |
| Share Price | Div/ | Div/ | Div/ | Div/ | Q3-13 | Price | YTD Percent Change | LTM | LTM | |||||||
| Company_name_and_ticker | 1-01 | 12-20 | Yield | EPS13 | EPS14 | NIIltm | NAV | NAV | NAV | Price | Pr+Div | EPS | Target | Div | NAV | |
| MCG Capital | (MCGC) | 4.60 | 4.47 | 11.19 | 113.6 | 102.0 | 118.9 | 9.7 | 5.10 | 0.88 | -2.83 | 5.33 | -4.35 | 7.99 | -10.71 | 1.59 |
| New Mountain | (NMFC) | 14.90 | 14.93 | 9.11 | 89.5 | 98.6 | 97.8 | 9.5 | 14.32 | 1.04 | 0.20 | 7.05 | 11.76 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.56 |
| NGP Capital | (NGPC) | 7.22 | 7.71 | 8.30 | 100.0 | 103.2 | 101.4 | 7.0 | 9.22 | 0.84 | 6.79 | 13.43 | -17.95 | -16.67 | 0.00 | -4.95 |
| Prospect | (PSEC) | 10.87 | 11.31 | 11.71 | 84.3 | 104.3 | 90.5 | 12.4 | 10.72 | 1.06 | 4.05 | 15.32 | 5.37 | 10.12 | 0.32 | -1.47 |
| Pennant Float | (PFLT) | 12.70 | 13.61 | 7.94 | 98.2 | 94.7 | 92.3 | 7.7 | 14.10 | 0.97 | 7.17 | 15.03 | 0.00 | 6.43 | 5.88 | 0.86 |
| Pennant Cap | (PNNT) | 10.99 | 11.58 | 9.67 | 110.9 | 102.8 | 110.7 | 10.7 | 10.49 | 1.10 | 5.37 | 15.56 | -10.62 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 2.64 |
| Saratoga | (SAR) | 15.40 | 15.53 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.77 | 0.65 | 0.84 | 0.84 | -2.11 | -32.09 | na | -12.61 |
| Solar Cap | (SLRC) | 23.91 | 22.66 | 7.06 | 84.7 | 90.4 | 75.6 | 7.1 | 22.25 | 1.02 | -5.23 | 1.46 | -26.46 | -4.84 | -33.33 | -1.98 |
| Solar Senior | (SUNS) | 18.66 | 18.35 | 7.68 | 119.5 | 104.4 | 116.0 | 7.7 | 17.91 | 1.02 | -1.66 | 5.33 | -16.90 | 1.32 | 0.00 | -3.71 |
| Medallion | (TAXI) | 11.74 | 15.19 | 6.06 | 73.6 | 79.3 | 143.6 | 9.0 | 10.38 | 1.46 | 29.39 | 35.26 | 17.92 | 27.04 | 9.52 | 4.22 |
| Triangle Cap | (TCAP) | 25.49 | 27.75 | 7.78 | 96.0 | 93.9 | 92.6 | 13.8 | 15.94 | 1.74 | 8.87 | 15.22 | -0.44 | 15.45 | 1.89 | 3.98 |
| THL Credit | (TCRD) | 14.79 | 16.56 | 8.21 | 93.8 | 95.1 | 94.1 | 10.3 | 13.38 | 1.24 | 11.97 | 18.86 | 1.40 | 9.11 | 3.03 | 1.29 |
| TICC Cap | (TICC) | 10.12 | 10.43 | 11.12 | 111.5 | 102.7 | 116.5 | 11.9 | 9.90 | 1.05 | 3.06 | 11.66 | -14.75 | -4.48 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Sector Average | 8.95 | 98.9 | 9.8 | 1.08 | 6.41 | 13.77 | -2.87 | 5.28 | ||||||||
| With the 10 Treasury at 2.89% and sector average yield (on Q4 dividends) at 8.95% - the spread is 606 bps. | ||||||||||||||||
| The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up 6.93% year to date - with dividends its total return is 14.40%. | ||||||||||||||||
| Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filter out the zero payout ACAS and SAR. | ||||||||||||||||
| Weeding out ACAS and SAR, the average share price gain is 5.87%. | ||||||||||||||||
BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 12-20
Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q4-13 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.
| Earnings / Share | Earn. Growth | P/E Ratios | 14 EPS Range | |||||||||||||
| Co. | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 11-12 | 12-13 | 13-14 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | High | Low | Range |
| ACAS | 242 | 61 | 62 | 126 | 116 | 83 | 1.08 | -7.94% | -28.45% | 30.12% | 13.11 | 18.33 | 14.08 | 110 | 84 | 31.33% |
| AINV | 180 | 148 | 126 | 99 | 83 | 87 | 0.88 | -16.16% | 4.82% | 1.15% | 10.22 | 9.75 | 9.64 | 92 | 79 | 14.94% |
| ARCC | 142 | 128 | 132 | 156 | 165 | 164 | 1.66 | 5.77% | -0.61% | 1.22% | 10.66 | 10.73 | 10.60 | 162 | 154 | 4.88% |
| BKCC | 176 | 139 | 101 | 100 | 100 | 78 | 0.94 | 0.00% | -22.00% | 20.51% | 9.36 | 12.00 | 9.96 | 93 | 79 | 17.95% |
| FDUS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 154 | 137 | 1.78 | -5.52% | -11.04% | 29.93% | 13.34 | 14.99 | 11.54 | 156 | 136 | 14.60% |
| FSC | 130 | 127 | 95 | 101 | 107 | 104 | 1.06 | 5.94% | -2.80% | 1.92% | 8.64 | 8.89 | 8.73 | 111 | 97 | 13.46% |
| FULL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 78 | 77 | 0.78 | -7.14% | -1.28% | 1.30% | 9.17 | 9.29 | 9.17 | 84 | 70 | 18.18% |
| GAIN | 79 | 62 | 48 | 73 | 62 | 71 | 0.70 | -15.07% | 14.52% | -1.41% | 12.37 | 10.80 | 10.96 | 66 | 60 | 8.45% |
| GBDC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 115 | 131 | 1.37 | -0.86% | 13.91% | 4.58% | 16.03 | 14.07 | 13.45 | 133 | 129 | 3.05% |
| GLAD | 135 | 100 | 84 | 88 | 91 | 84 | 0.86 | 3.41% | -7.69% | 2.38% | 10.51 | 11.38 | 11.12 | 86 | 84 | 2.38% |
| HRZN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 141 | 138 | 1.45 | -6.00% | -2.13% | 5.07% | 9.75 | 9.96 | 9.48 | 149 | 132 | 12.32% |
| HTGC | 123 | 125 | 80 | 91 | 97 | 123 | 1.30 | 6.59% | 26.80% | 5.69% | 16.95 | 13.37 | 12.65 | 117 | 112 | 4.07% |
| KED | 135 | 127 | 125 | 136 | 189 | 240 | 2.57 | 38.97% | 26.98% | 7.08% | 14.01 | 11.03 | 10.30 | 210 | 210 | 0.00% |
| KCAP | 150 | 104 | 53 | 70 | 89 | 91 | 1.02 | 27.14% | 2.25% | 12.09% | 9.37 | 9.16 | 8.18 | 93 | 92 | 1.10% |
| MAIN | 115 | 90 | 100 | 169 | 201 | 201 | 2.28 | 18.93% | 0.00% | 13.43% | 16.29 | 16.29 | 14.36 | 208 | 202 | 2.99% |
| MCC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 131 | 153 | 1.57 | 133.93% | 16.79% | 2.61% | 10.84 | 9.28 | 9.04 | 153 | 146 | 4.58% |
| Earnings / Share | Earn. Growth | P/E Ratios | 14 EPS Range | |||||||||||||
| Co. | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 11-12 | 12-13 | 13-14 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | High | Low | Range |
| MCGC | 93 | 60 | 60 | 53 | 25 | 44 | 0.49 | -52.83% | 76.00% | 11.36% | 17.88 | 10.16 | 9.12 | 48 | 46 | 4.55% |
| NMFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 135 | 152 | 1.38 | 141.07% | 12.59% | -9.21% | 11.06 | 9.82 | 10.82 | 154 | 150 | 2.63% |
| NGPC | 79 | 57 | 54 | 73 | 55 | 64 | 0.62 | -24.66% | 16.36% | -3.13% | 14.02 | 12.05 | 12.44 | 69 | 63 | 9.37% |
| PSEC | 191 | 187 | 109 | 109 | 163 | 157 | 1.27 | 49.54% | -3.68% | -19.11% | 6.94 | 7.20 | 8.91 | 138 | 121 | 10.83% |
| PFLT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 101 | 110 | 1.14 | 1920.00% | 8.91% | 3.64% | 13.48 | 12.37 | 11.94 | 115 | 107 | 7.27% |
| PNNT | 88 | 109 | 109 | 125 | 108 | 101 | 1.09 | -13.60% | -6.48% | 7.92% | 10.72 | 11.47 | 10.62 | 105 | 101 | 3.96% |
| SAR | 1300 | 1640 | 457 | 215 | 186 | 186 | 1.90 | -13.49% | 0.00% | 2.15% | 8.35 | 8.35 | 8.17 | 186 | 186 | 0.00% |
| SLRC | 0 | 200 | 208 | 225 | 220 | 189 | 1.77 | -2.22% | -14.09% | -6.35% | 10.30 | 11.99 | 12.80 | 192 | 182 | 5.29% |
| SUNS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 131 | 118 | 1.35 | 107.94% | -9.92% | 14.41% | 14.01 | 15.55 | 13.59 | 125 | 118 | 5.93% |
| TAXI | 86 | 56 | 64 | 101 | 121 | 125 | 1.16 | 19.80% | 3.31% | -7.20% | 12.55 | 12.15 | 13.09 | 135 | 112 | 18.40% |
| TCAP | 154 | 161 | 158 | 206 | 216 | 225 | 2.30 | 4.85% | 4.17% | 2.22% | 12.85 | 12.33 | 12.07 | 228 | 218 | 4.44% |
| TCRD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 138 | 145 | 1.43 | 32.69% | 5.07% | -1.38% | 12.00 | 11.42 | 11.58 | 148 | 139 | 6.21% |
| TICC | 91 | 49 | 89 | 94 | 112 | 104 | 1.13 | 19.15% | -7.14% | 8.65% | 9.31 | 10.03 | 9.23 | 107 | 101 | 5.77% |
| BDC Average | 81.73 | 3.97 | 4.89 | 11.86 | 11.52 | 10.95 | 8.24 | |||||||||
Year To Date BDC Newbie Stats 12-20
The first Div/EPS uses the 2013 projection and the second ratio uses the 2014 projection
| Share Price | 2013 | Div/ | 2014 | Div/ | Q3-13 | Price | YTD Percent Change | |||||
| Company | 12-31 | 12-20 | Yield | EPS | EPS | EPS | EPS | NAV | NAV | Price | Pr+Div | |
| Garrison | GARS | 15.00 | 13.86 | 10.10 | 1.28 | 109.38 | 1.40 | 100.00 | 15.11 | 0.92 | -7.60 | -2.93 |
| Monroe Capital | MRCC | 14.83 | 11.96 | 11.37 | 1.16 | 117.24 | 1.33 | 102.26 | 14.01 | 0.85 | -19.35 | -12.47 |
| OFS Capital | OFS | 13.69 | 12.59 | 10.80 | 0.62 | 219.35 | 1.05 | 129.52 | 14.46 | 0.87 | -8.04 | 0.16 |
| Stellus Capital | SCM | 16.38 | 14.35 | 9.48 | 1.35 | 100.74 | 1.41 | 96.45 | 14.57 | 0.98 | -12.39 | -6.17 |
| TCP Capital | TCPC | 14.74 | 16.86 | 9.73 | 1.63 | 100.61 | 1.64 | 100.00 | 15.06 | 1.12 | 14.38 | 21.71 |
| White Horse | WHF | 14.81 | 15.05 | 8.90 | 1.28 | 104.69 | 1.32 | 101.52 | 15.09 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 11.21 |
| Sector Average | 10.06 | 125.34 | 104.96 | 0.96 | -5.23 | 1.83 | ||||||
EPS Estimates and P/E Ratios 12-20 -13
| Earnings / Share | Earn. Growth | P/E Ratios | 13 EPS Range | ||||||||||
| Co. | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 11-12 | 12-13 | 13-14 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | High | Low | Spread |
| GARS | 0 | 0 | 128 | 140 | na | na | 9.37% | na | 10.83 | 9.90 | 142 | 131 | 8.59% |
| MRCC | 0 | 20 | 116 | 133 | na | 480.00% | 14.66% | 59.80 | 10.31 | 8.99 | 142 | 125 | 14.66% |
| OFS | 0 | 65 | 62 | 105 | na | -4.62% | 69.35% | 19.37 | 20.31 | 11.99 | 89 | 77 | 19.35% |
| SCM | 0 | 30 | 135 | 141 | na | 350.00% | 4.44% | 47.83 | 10.63 | 10.18 | 142 | 135 | 5.19% |
| TCPC | 0 | 181 | 163 | 164 | na | -9.94% | 0.61% | 9.31 | 10.34 | 10.28 | 185 | 160 | 15.34% |
| WHF | 0 | 32 | 128 | 132 | na | 300.00% | 3.13% | 47.03 | 11.76 | 11.40 | 161 | 120 | 32.03% |
| Average | 0.00 | 185.91 | 16.93 | 30.56 | 12.36 | 10.46 | |||||||