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Multi-Family Update 4-23-14

Note to followers - I changed both my computer and ISP in order to try to fix problems in article submission to Seeking Alpha. That fix failed to work - and I hate spending money when the cure is ineffective. Now I am adjusting to a keyboard that lacks the same feel - and has a changed keyboard pattern. That makes data entry take longer. I am working in a new text editor that lines up the data differently - and that makes data entry also take longer as this old mind becomes accustomed to that new format.

I have two articles in que - and the equivalent of the "submit" button (in the Seeing Alpha text editor) is not working. At times, the article fails to load in the Seeking Alpha text editor.

Add to this - the SA editors are "passing along" problems. Because Yahoo creates (or allows) links in a quirky way - Seeking Alpha wants me to use the full name of the company in my spreadsheet. That results in my spreadsheets being too wide for Seeking Alpha. It appears that being too wide is a tech issue and not an editor issue.

In sum, I am still trying to write for Seeking Alpha.

Apartment Update for 04-23-14

Yields are calculated on the Q1-14 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The dividend change is since Q1-13. ESS purchased BRE - each BRE share converted into 0.2971 newly issued shares of ESS plus $12.33 in cash. PPS increased its Q2-14 div to $0.36. UDR has increased its Q2-14 div to $0.26. A Q2-14 div increase from ESS is expected.


    Share Price 14 FFO Est Q1-14 Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM
Company 1-01 04-17 1-01 04-17 Yield FFO14 FFO15 Price Pr+Div FFO Target Div

Apartment Investors (NYSE:AIV) 25.91 30.05 2.17 2.07 3.46 50.24 46.85 15.98 16.90 -4.61 1.84 8.33
Avalon Bay (NYSE:AVB) 118.23 133.35 6.77 6.76 3.48 68.64 63.74 12.79 14.60 -0.15 1.40 8.41
Camden (NYSE:CPT) 56.88 67.61 4.27 4.23 3.90 62.41 59.06 18.86 21.08 -0.94 0.67 17.86
Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) 51.87 57.85 3.11 3.10 3.46 64.52 60.61 11.53 13.07 -0.32 3.84 25.00
Essex Properties (NYSE:ESS) 143.51 168.79 8.29 8.28 2.87 58.45 53.36 17.62 18.46 -0.12 1.90 10.00
Home Properties (NYSE:HME) 53.62 60.34 4.52 4.51 4.84 64.75 61.73 12.53 13.84 -0.22 0.89 4.29
Mid-America (NYSE:MAA) 60.74 68.62 4.99 5.01 4.26 58.28 53.48 12.97 14.12 0.40 2.86 5.04
Post Properties (NYSE:PPS) 45.23 49.33 2.76 2.60 2.68 50.77 47.48 9.06 10.52 -5.80 -2.31 32.00
United Dominion (NYSE:UDR) 23.35 25.58 1.49 1.50 3.67 62.67 58.75 9.55 10.56 0.67 1.87 6.82

Apartment Average         3.62 60.08   13.43 14.89 -1.23 1.44 13.08
Student Housing
American Campus (NYSE:ACC) 32.21 37.89 2.33 2.33 3.80 61.80 58.30 17.63 18.75 0.00 3.00 6.67
Education Reality (NYSE:EDR) 8.82 10.21 0.64 0.64 4.31 68.75 58.67 15.76 17.01 0.00 4.27 10.00

Student Housing Average               16.70 17.88 -9.39      

Sector Average         3.70 61.03   14.03 15.43 -1.01 1.84 12.22

Dividend dates are:

AIV: 02-27-14 AVB: 04-14-14 CPT: 04-16-14 EQR: 04-10-14 ESS: 03-30-14
HME: 02-24-14 MAA: 04-30-14 PPS: 04-14-14 UDR: 04-30-14 ACC: 02-20-14 EDR: 02-13-14

Special dividends are not included in these stats.

Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 04-17


  FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

AIV 144 168 204 207 222 21.43% 1.47% 7.25% 14.73 14.52 13.54 217 205 5.80%
AVB 460 544 505 676 728 -7.17% 33.86% 7.69% 26.41 19.73 18.32 685 648 5.47%
CPT 272 362 411 423 447 13.54% 2.92% 5.67% 16.45 15.98 15.13 429 418 2.60%
EQR 242 276 235 310 330 -14.86% 31.91% 6.45% 24.62 18.66 17.53 313 306 2.26%
ESS 570 671 759 828 907 13.11% 9.09% 9.54% 22.24 20.39 18.61 850 814 4.35%
HME 348 413 437 451 473 5.81% 3.20% 4.88% 13.81 13.38 12.76 455 447 1.77%
MAA 398 457 435 501 546 -4.81% 15.17% 8.98% 15.77 13.70 12.57 533 496 7.39%
PPS 189 284 301 260 278 5.99% -13.62% 6.92% 16.39 18.97 17.74 276 253 8.85%
UDR 127 132 144 150 160 9.09% 4.17% 6.67% 17.76 17.05 15.99 152 147 3.33%

Average         4.68 9.80 7.12 18.69 16.93 15.80  
Student Housing
ACC 179 191 222 233 247 16.23% 4.95% 6.01% 17.07 16.26 15.34 237 231 2.58%
EDR 41 46 55 64 75 19.57% 16.36% 17.19% 18.56 15.95 13.61 66 60 9.38%

Sector Average       7.08 9.95 7.93 18.53 16.78 15.56

added by edit on Wednesday afternoon

Dividend History [based on Q4 Divs]


  Dividends/Share/Quarter Percentage Dividend Growth Average
Co. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 2011-13

AIV 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.100 0.100 0.120 0.200 0.240 0.00 -83.33 0.00 20.00 66.67 20.00 43.33
AVB 0.710 0.780 0.850 0.893 0.893 0.893 0.893 0.970 1.070 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.68 10.31 9.50
CPT 0.635 0.660 0.690 0.700 0.450 0.450 0.490 0.560 0.630 1.45 -35.71 0.00 8.89 14.29 12.50 13.39
EQR 0.433 0.443 0.463 0.483 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.400 4.32 -30.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.52 9.26
ESS 0.810 0.840 0.930 1.020 1.030 1.033 1.040 1.100 1.210 9.68 0.98 0.24 0.73 5.77 10.00 7.88
HME 0.630 0.650 0.660 0.670 0.670 0.580 0.620 0.660 0.700 1.52 0.00 -13.43 6.90 6.45 6.06 6.26
MAA 0.595 0.595 0.605 0.615 0.615 0.615 0.628 0.660 0.695 1.65 0.00 0.00 2.03 5.18 5.30 5.24
PPS 0.450 0.450 0.450 0.450 0.200 0.200 0.220 0.250 0.330 0.00 -55.56 0.00 10.00 13.64 32.00 22.82
UDR 0.300 0.313 0.330 0.330 0.180 0.185 0.200 0.220 0.235 0.00 -45.45 2.78 8.11 10.00 6.82 8.41
ACC 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.360 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 3.33
EDR 0.300 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.050 0.050 0.070 0.100 0.110 0.00 -75.61 0.00 40.00 42.86 10.00 26.43

Disclosure: I am long AVB, HME, UDR.