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YTD Midstream MLP Stats 5-30-14

MLP Midstream 05-30-14

The consensus DCFs were last updated on 05-30-14. The CAGR projections were updated 4-09-14. Yields are based on the Q2-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q2-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.


Company   Current Distrib/ Q2 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
    Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

Access Midstream Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ACMP) 62.99 0.5750 3.65 67.65 65.53 11.33 13.36 6.21 13.45 5.59 23.13 0.00
American Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:AMID) 29.57 0.4625 6.26 97.88 80.43 9.19 12.61 0.00 10.68 -8.70 6.94 33.33
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:APL) 32.60 0.6200 7.61 95.38 87.32 -6.99 -3.45 -83.81 -14.46 -11.86 5.08 0.00
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:BKEP) 9.28 0.1300 5.60 49.52 34.67 9.05 12.10 -35.85 0.00 1.94 10.64 0.00
Buckeye Partners, L.P. (NYSE:BPL) 78.46 1.1000 5.61 96.07 87.48 10.49 13.59 1.08 8.63 -2.55 4.76 20.00
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (NYSE:BWP) 17.49 0.1000 2.29 23.26 24.10 -31.47 -30.68 -31.40 -40.11 -13.13 -81.22 0.00
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:CMLP) 21.80 0.4100 7.52 90.11 80.39 -12.41 -9.12 12.50 -5.64 -1.62 3.80 16.67
DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM) 53.71 0.7450 5.55 91.41 82.09 6.67 9.63 -4.58 5.55 -0.91 6.43 0.00
El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EPB) 31.24 0.6500 8.32 100.78 94.89 -13.22 -9.61 -16.99 -11.77 0.00 4.84 8.70
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EEP) 31.00 0.5435 7.01 106.57 100.18 3.78 7.42 -16.07 -3.16 -3.77 0.00 0.00
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) 74.82 0.7100 3.80 67.94 64.99 12.85 14.99 3.02 10.59 0.72 5.97 0.00
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) 56.32 0.9350 6.64 80.78 84.81 -1.62 1.64 6.17 4.18 -1.28 4.62 8.11
EQT Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:EQM) 82.14 0.4900 2.39 61.44 52.27 39.72 41.38 1.91 40.29 2.90 32.43 1.05
Exterran Partners, L.P. (EXLP) 27.97 0.5375 7.69 82.06 89.21 -7.48 -3.92 -17.46 7.00 0.38 3.86 0.00
Genesis Energy LP (NYSE:GEL) 57.00 0.5500 3.86 86.61 66.47 8.43 10.52 -10.16 5.24 -13.61 10.55 0.00
Holly Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE:HEP) 35.45 0.5075 5.73 91.44 82.86 9.65 12.79 -1.69 1.78 1.37 6.28 0.00
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:KMP) 76.05 1.3800 7.26 95.50 94.20 -5.72 -2.29 2.57 -4.95 0.87 6.15 -31.91
Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:MMP) 81.88 0.6125 2.99 74.02 67.12 29.41 31.35 3.96 31.49 7.82 20.69 2.27
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:MWE) 61.95 0.8700 5.62 81.88 74.68 -6.32 -3.69 -24.69 -7.49 -2.07 4.82 -19.54
Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE:NGLS) 67.96 0.7625 4.49 76.44 70.93 29.94 32.86 17.22 15.06 13.68 9.32 0.00
NuStar Energy L.P. (NYSE:NS) 58.02 1.0950 7.55 113.77 98.21 13.79 18.08 3.76 20.88 1.05 0.00 0.00
ONEOK Partners, L.P. (OKS) 55.10 0.7450 5.41 90.03 82.09 4.65 7.48 2.97 4.59 -0.90 4.20 0.00
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. (NYSE:OILT) 89.10 0.4950 2.22 57.23 54.10 43.55 45.14 -4.61 40.84 22.70 22.22 16.88
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) 56.47 0.6300 4.46 84.28 79.25 9.08 11.51 -8.24 2.89 -4.47 9.57 0.00
Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE:RGP) 27.80 0.4800 6.91 91.87 84.21 5.86 9.52 1.92 4.50 0.97 4.35 25.00
Spectra Energy Partners, LP (NYSE:SEP) 52.45 0.5563 4.24 83.97 89.01 15.66 18.11 0.00 10.86 2.71 10.97 0.00
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL) 92.00 0.6950 3.02 62.75 59.15 21.89 23.73 -4.33 27.22 -3.90 21.40 1.12
TC PipeLines, LP (NYSE:TCP) 52.00 0.8100 6.23 85.04 81.82 7.37 10.72 0.86 2.96 2.97 3.85 0.00
Tesoro Logistics LP (TLLP) 69.70 0.5900 3.39 80.00 73.07 33.17 35.42 -13.08 15.77 -3.91 20.41 0.00
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. (NYSE:TLP) 49.63 0.6600 5.32 70.59 77.65 16.78 19.88 0.90 -0.17 6.86 3.13 0.00
Western Gas Partners LP (NYSE:WES) 71.99 0.6250 3.47 75.99 65.10 16.70 18.72 -3.03 8.08 7.87 15.74 0.00
Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE:WPZ) 53.11 0.9045 6.81 95.21 93.97 4.42 7.98 -1.40 -0.05 6.44 6.73 0.00
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:ENLK) 30.47 0.3600 4.73 92.90 76.60 10.40 13.01 -23.91 16.54 -1.27 9.09 0.00

Pipeline Average     5.26 81.83 75.72 9.05 11.84 -7.16 6.70 4.87 6.69  
Shipping
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM) 18.45 0.4425 9.59 111.32 97.25 -3.50 1.12 -2.74 7.11 -9.14 0.00 0.00
Martin Midstream Partners LP (NASDAQ:MMLP) 40.64 0.7875 7.75 93.75 77.78 -5.05 -1.37 -3.75 -1.49 -3.45 1.61 0.00
Teekay LNG Partners LP. (NYSE:TGP) 44.30 0.6918 6.25 94.12 90.73 3.72 6.96 6.07 1.17 -0.34 2.49 0.00

Shipping Average     7.86 99.73   -1.61 2.24 -0.14 2.26    

MidStream Average   5.48 83.32 76.79 8.16 11.04 -6.57 6.33    

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is 6.76% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 6.80% and with dividends is 8.02%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 4.33% and with dividends is 4.77%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -2.17% and with dividend is -1.91%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.48% & the sector average yield [on Q2 distrib's] at 5.48% - the spread is 300 bps.
With the JNK yielding 5.76% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -28 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.77% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is -29 bps.

Historical MLP Month-End Yields:

Jan 05: 5.97% Feb: 6.10% Mar: 6.07% April: 6.15% May: 6.16% June: 6.03%
July 05: 5.87% Aug: 6.10% Sept: 6.07% Oct : 6.45% Nov: 6.79% Dec: 6.92%
Jan 06: 6.56% Feb: 6.68% Mar: 6.56% April: 6.68% May: 6.76% June: 6.82%
July 06: 6.61% Aug: 6.65% Sept: 6.70% Oct : 6.58% Nov: 6.44% Dec: 6.28%
Jan 07: 6.05% Feb: 5.96% Mar: 5.77% April: 5.54% May: 5.54% June: 5.43%
July 07: 5.44% Aug: 6.05% Sept: 6.26% Oct : 6.20% Nov: 6.64% Dec: 6.70%
Jan 08: 6.79% Feb: 6.79% Mar: 7.43% April: 7.08% May: 7.44% June: 7.56%
July 08: 8.16% Aug: 8.45% Sept: 10.76% Oct : 11.73% Nov: 16.53% Dec: 19.50%
Jan 09: 14.76% Feb: 14.54% Mar: 13.90% April: 14.66% May: 9.80% June: 9.59%
July 09: 8.39% Aug: 8.61% Sept: 7.96% Oct : 7.84% Nov: 7.62% Dec: 7.13%
Jan 10: 6.64% Feb: 6.50% Mar: 6.34% April: 6.23% May: 6.71% June: 6.27%
July 10: 5.85% Aug: 6.14% Sept: 5.89% Oct : 6.14%* Nov: 6.00% Dec: 5.79%
Jan 11: 5.87% Feb: 5.62% Mar: 5.65% April: 5.59% May: 5.95% June: 5.90%
July 11: 6.21% Aug: 6.73% Sept: 7.10%** Oct : 6.51% Nov: 6.80% Dec: 6.45%
Jan 12: 6.45% Feb: 6.43% Mar: 6.43% April: 6.42% May: 7.26% June: 7.06%
July 12: 6.81% Aug: 6.87% Sept: 6.75% Oct : 6.79% Nov: 7.08% Dec: 7.31%
Jan 13: x.xx% Feb: x.xx% Mar: x.xx% April: x.xx% May: x.xx% June: 6.14%
July 13: 6.18% Aug: 6.51% Sept: 6.39% Oct : 6.34% Nov: 6.21% Dec: 5.77%***
Jan 14: 5.92% Feb: 5.84% Mar: 5.69% April: 5.64% May: 5.48% June:

* The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX re-starting distributions, and not due to a decrease in the unit prices of the MLPs. And the same cause was evident in the increase in the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
** The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield.
*** The deletion of high yielding EROC combined with the addition of low yielding EQM, OILT and TLLP to the coverage universe subtracted about 20 bps to the sector average yield.

Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:

Jan 05: 178 Feb: 152 Mar: 156 April: 195 May: 216 June: 211
July 05: 159 Aug: 208 Sept: 174 Oct : 177 Nov: 230 Dec: 252
Jan 06: 206 Feb: 213 Mar: 171 April: 161 May: 164 June: 167
July 06: 161 Aug: 192 Sept: 206 Oct : 198 Nov: 198 Dec: 158
Jan 07: 123 Feb: 138 Mar: 122 April: 89 May: 65 June: 40
July 07: 71 Aug: 152 Sept: 167 Oct : 172 Nov: 269 Dec: 267
Jan 08: 319 Feb: 327 Mar: 401 April: 335 May: 338 June: 358
July 08: 420 Aug: 463 Sept: 694 Oct : 801 Nov: 1360 Dec: 1728
Jan 09: 1191 Feb: 1152 Mar: 1294 April: 1154 May: 634 June: 606
July 09: 491 Aug: 551 Sept: 488 Oct : 485 Nov: 443 Dec: 329
Jan 10: 305 Feb: 288 Mar: 251 April: 257 May: 341 June: 333
July 10: 294 Aug: 367 Sept: 337 Oct : 354 Nov: 321 Dec: 250
Jan 11: 250 Feb: 224 Mar: 219 April: 230 May: 289 June: 273
July 11: 341 Aug: 454 Sept: 518 Oct : 439 Nov: 472 Dec: 457
Jan 12: 457 Feb: 421 Mar: 421 April: 450 May: 570 June: 546
July 12: 534 Aug: 531 Sept: 511 Oct : 510 Nov: 546 Dec: 555
Jan 13: Feb: Mar: April: May: June: 366
July 13: 360 Aug: 373 Sept: 378 Oct : 379 Nov: 347 Dec: 274
Jan 14: 327 Feb: 319 Mar: 304 April: 299 May: 300 June:

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q2-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distribution
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR /14 DCF
Large Cap Midstream
Buckeye Partners, L.P. BPL 5.61% 4.80% 10.41% BBB 2.50 10.40 0.01 2.6 4.79 96.07
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP BWP 2.29% 1.00% 3.29% BBB- 4.00 10.70 -7.41 3.1 8.41 23.26
El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. EPB 8.32% 2.50% 10.82% BBB- 1.00 10.30 0.52 3.1 1.98 100.78
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. EEP 7.01% 1.50% 8.51% BBB 2.60 10.50 -1.99 2.9 3.49 106.57
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD 3.80% 6.70% 10.50% BBB+ 1.20 9.70 0.80 1.6 5.90 67.94
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. ETP 6.64% 4.00% 10.64% BBB- 2.50 10.70 -0.06 2.3 4.06 80.78
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. KMP 7.26% 3.20% 10.46% BBB 1.00 10.00 0.46 2.5 2.74 95.50
Magellan Midstream Partners LP MMP 2.99% 9.00% 11.99% BBB 1.00 10.00 1.99 2.4 7.01 74.02
NuStar Energy L.P. NS 7.55% 1.50% 9.05% BB+ 3.50 11.50 -2.45 3.1 3.95 113.77
ONEOK Partners, L.P. OKS 5.41% 6.70% 12.11% BBB 1.50 10.50 1.61 2.1 5.09 90.03
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA 4.46% 8.00% 12.46% BBB 1.00 10.00 2.46 1.8 5.54 84.28
Williams Partners L.P. WPZ 6.81% 5.40% 12.21% BBB 2.50 11.00 1.21 2.2 4.19 95.21

Average   5.68% 4.53% 10.20%         2.48

Company Q2-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Small Cap Midstream
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. BKEP 5.60% 8.50% 14.10% none 3.50 13.50 0.60 3.3 7.90 49.52
Genesis Energy LP GEL 3.86% 8.60% 12.46% BB- 3.00 11.80 0.66 2.2 7.94 86.61
Holly Energy Partners L.P. HEP 5.73% 6.00% 11.73% BB 1.00 11.20 0.53 3.1 5.47 91.44
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. OILT 2.22% 9.00% 11.22% none 1.50 10.50 0.72 2.4 8.28 57.23
Spectra Energy Partners, LP SEP 4.24% 6.50% 10.74% BBB 1.50 10.50 0.24 3.1 6.26 83.97
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. SXL 3.02% 9.00% 12.02% BBB- 1.00 10.00 2.02 2.6 6.98 62.75
TC PipeLines, LP TCP 6.23% 3.00% 9.23% BBB 1.00 10.00 -0.77 3.6 3.77 85.04
Tesoro Logistics LP TLLP 3.39% 8.50% 11.89% BB- 1.50 10.00 1.89 1.8 6.61 80.00
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. TLP 5.32% 3.00% 8.32% none 1.00 10.00 -1.68 1.9 4.68 70.59

Average   4.40% 6.90% 11.30%         2.67

Company Q2-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Gathering & Processing
Access Midstream Partners, L.P. ACMP 3.65% 9.60% 13.25% BB- 1.20 12.00 1.25 1.7 8.35 67.65
American Midstream Partners, LP AMID 6.26% 6.00% 12.26% none 5.00 12.50 -0.24 2.5 6.24 97.88
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. APL 7.61% 7.00% 14.61% B+ 5.00 13.50 1.11 1.8 5.89 95.38
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP CMLP 7.52% 5.60% 13.12% B- 4.20 12.50 0.62 1.9 4.98 90.11
DCP Midstream Partners LP DPM 5.55% 6.70% 12.25% BBB- 3.00 11.50 0.75 1.9 5.95 91.41
EQT Midstream Partners, LP EQM 2.39% 9.60% 11.99% none 1.50 11.20 0.79 1.7 8.81 61.44
Exterran Partners, L.P. EXLP 7.69% 3.00% 10.69% B- 1.70 11.50 -0.81 2.6 3.81 82.06
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. MWE 5.62% 7.00% 12.62% BB 2.50 12.50 0.12 1.5 6.88 81.88
Targa Resources Partners LP NGLS 4.49% 6.90% 11.39% BB 1.50 12.20 -0.81 2.3 7.71 76.44
Regency Energy Partners LP RGP 6.91% 5.00% 11.91% BB- 3.50 12.00 -0.09 2.8 5.09 91.87
Western Gas Partners LP WES 3.47% 9.10% 12.57% BBB- 1.00 10.90 1.67 1.9 7.43 75.99
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP ENLK 4.73% 8.50% 13.23% B+ 4.00 13.50 -0.27 2.4 8.77 92.90

Average   5.49% 7.00% 12.49%         2.08