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Business Development Company Stat Update 9-09-14

I am prepping for a small purchase for a relative (an 87 year old relative who is not concerned with dividend growth or "CAGR projections"). I have spent the last two days gathering NII, TII, NAV and weighted average yield data for my BDC coverage universe. I updated the prices after today's close. Here are the stats, starting with one of the metric tests:

The Importance of Intra-Year EPS Projections The following companies had 2014 EPS projections that increased since the beginning of the year: GAIN, GLAD, MCC, NMFC and PFLT. Their mean price gain for the year is -1.18%. Their mean total return for the year is 4.39% - and 3 of the 5 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had 2014 EPS projections that fell since the beginning of the year: ACAS, ARCC, BKCC, FDUS, FSC, FULL, GBDC, HRZN, HTGC, KCAP, MAIN, MCGC, NGPC, PSEC, PNNT, SAR, SLRC, SUNS, TAXI, TCAP, TCRD and TICC. Their mean price gain for the year is -5.05%. Their mean total return for the year is -0.29% - and 10 of the 22 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

BDCs 09-09-14

Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q3-14 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2014 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q3-14 dividend from the Q3-13 dividend; and the change in NAV between Q2-14 and Q2-13. Special dividends are not included in this data. FSC and FULL cut their first quarter dividend. BKCC and MCGC cut their Q2-14 dividend. KED And TAXI increased their Q2 dividends. Ride-sharing smartphone apps like Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar threaten the value of the medallions that are the source of TAXI loans.


    Share Price   Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q1-14 Price YTD Percent Change LTM LTM
Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 09-09 Yield EPS14 EPS15 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target Div NAV

American Capital, Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACAS) 15.64 15.26 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.12 0.76 -2.43 -2.43 -44.44 8.31 na 4.36
Apollo Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:AINV) 8.48 8.76 9.13 90.9 87.9 91.6 9.2 8.74 1.00 3.30 10.38 0.00 2.93 0.00 7.01
Ares Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:ARCC) 17.77 17.10 8.89 103.4 97.4 97.5 9.2 16.52 1.04 -3.77 0.51 -11.45 -1.81 0.00 1.94
BlackRock Kelso Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:BKCC) 9.33 9.32 9.01 103.7 96.6 146.4 8.6 9.79 0.95 -0.11 6.65 -13.83 -6.33 -19.23 4.44
Fidus Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:FDUS) 21.74 18.36 8.28 94.4 88.9 94.1 10.1 15.09 1.22 -15.55 -11.53 -9.55 -4.55 0.00 -6.27
Fifth Street Finance Corp. (FSC) 9.25 9.85 10.15 99.0 93.4 101.6 10.3 9.71 1.01 6.49 12.70 -1.94 -0.48 -13.05 -1.92
Full Circle Capital Corporation (FULL) 7.04 7.34 12.53 127.8 119.5 128.8 12.8 7.20 1.02 4.26 11.78 -7.69 -3.03 -0.43 -10.12
Gladstone Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:GAIN) 8.06 7.65 7.84 83.3 82.2 78.1 7.0 8.57 0.89 -5.09 -0.12 1.41 0.00 0.00 -0.33
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (NASDAQ:GBDC) 19.11 17.29 7.40 102.4 94.1 102.5 8.3 15.44 1.12 -9.52 -6.17 -8.76 -1.06 0.00 2.16
Gladstone Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:GLAD) 9.57 9.63 8.72 95.5 100.0 94.9 9.7 8.62 1.12 0.63 6.48 4.76 0.00 0.00 0.22
Horizon Technology Finance Corp (NASDAQ:HRZN) 14.21 14.31 9.64 121.1 97.9 118.1 9.7 14.23 1.01 0.70 6.29 -21.38 -7.80 0.00 -4.37
Hercules Technology Growth Capital (NASDAQ:HTGC) 16.40 15.30 8.10 102.5 91.9 98.3 11.9 10.42 1.47 -6.71 -1.04 -6.92 -1.51 10.71 3.30
Kayne Anderson Energy Development (NYSE:KED) 27.97 38.50 5.35 84.1 82.4 102.7 6.0 34.49 1.12 37.65 43.17 0.00 20.11 17.05 32.36
KCAP Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ:KCAP) 8.07 8.40 11.90 103.1 101.0 113.7 13.0 7.67 1.10 4.09 13.38 -4.90 -0.11 -10.71 -6.84
Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE:MAIN) 32.69 32.38 6.11 90.8 82.8 94.6 9.4 21.03 1.54 -0.95 3.09 -4.39 5.31 6.45 12.45
Medley Capital Corporation (NYSE:MCC) 13.85 12.79 11.57 93.1 92.5 91.3 11.7 12.65 1.01 -7.65 0.36 1.27 -2.79 0.00 -0.63

    Share Price   Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q1-14 Price YTD Percent Change LTM LTM
Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 09-09 Yield EPS14 EPS15 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target Div NAV

MCG Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:MCGC) 4.40 4.04 4.95 133.3 153.8 73.9 4.5 4.42 0.91 -8.18 -4.77 -69.39 -21.60 -60.00 -14.67
New Mountain Finance Corporation (NYSE:NMFC) 15.04 15.27 8.91 95.8 93.8 98.7 9.3 14.65 1.04 1.53 6.05 2.90 0.00 0.00 2.38
NGP Capital Resources Company (NGPC) 7.47 6.58 9.73 148.8 128.0 159.9 7.5 8.57 0.77 -11.91 -5.49 -30.65 4.00 0.00 -6.19
Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC) 11.22 10.34 12.86 111.8 114.7 111.3 12.6 10.56 0.98 -7.84 -1.03 -6.30 -5.28 0.44 -1.49
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (NASDAQ:PFLT) 13.73 14.37 7.52 92.3 92.3 106.6 7.4 14.52 0.99 4.66 9.18 2.63 -0.13 2.86 3.83
PennantPark Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:PNNT) 11.60 11.56 9.69 103.7 97.4 109.5 9.9 11.33 1.02 -0.34 4.48 -0.92 0.43 0.00 8.57
Saratoga Investment Corp. (NYSE:SAR) 15.65 15.87 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.69 0.73 1.41 1.41 -2.63 -8.70 na -8.79
Solar Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ:SLRC) 22.55 20.18 7.93 102.6 94.1 95.2 7.1 22.44 0.90 -10.51 -6.96 -11.86 -5.09 0.00 0.17
Solar Senior Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ:SUNS) 18.22 15.73 8.96 121.6 109.3 124.3 7.9 17.85 0.88 -13.67 -9.22 -14.07 -4.78 0.00 -2.19
Medallion Financial Corp. (TAXI) 14.35 12.45 7.71 84.2 77.4 106.6 8.6 11.11 1.12 -13.24 -8.22 -3.39 -7.82 9.09 9.33
Triangle Capital Corporation (TCAP) 27.65 26.93 8.02 98.6 90.0 102.7 13.5 15.95 1.69 -2.60 1.30 -4.78 0.65 0.00 2.15
THL Credit, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCRD) 16.49 14.04 9.69 97.8 98.6 103.6 10.2 13.28 1.06 -14.86 -10.73 -2.80 -12.02 0.00 0.61
TICC Capital Corp. (TICC) 10.34 9.73 11.92 103.6 102.7 108.4 11.9 9.71 1.00 -5.90 -0.29 -0.88 -2.16 0.00 -0.40

Sector Average     8.82 99.0     9.4   1.05 -2.62 2.28 -9.31 -1.91

With the 10 Treasury at 2.50% and sector average yield (on Q2 dividends) at 8.82% - the spread is 632 bps.
The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up -5.12% year to date - with dividends its total return is 0.09%.
Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filter out the zero payout ACAS and SAR.
Weeding out ACAS and SAR, the average share price gain is -2.78%.

Dates used to credit dividends:

ACAS : none AINV : 10-05-14 ARCC: 09-29-14 BKCC: 10-02-14 FDUS: 07-30-14 FSC : monthly FULL: monthly
GAIN: monthly GLAD;: monthly GBDC: 09-25-14 HTGC: 08-24-14 HRZN: monthly KCAP: 07-24-14 KED : 07-17-14
MAIN: monthly MCC: 09-11-14 MCGC: 08-28-14 NGPC: 07-06-14 PFLT: monthly PNNT : 06-30-14 PSEC: monthly
SAR: none SLRC: 09-30-14 SUNS: monthly TAXI : 08-20-14 TCAP: 06-24-14 TICC : 06-29-14 TCRD: 09-29-14

Historical BDC Yield to 10 Year Treasury Spreads for the sector:

Mar 10: 882 June: 649 Sept: 564 Dec: 509
Mar 11: 470 June: 605 Sept: 947 Dec: 873
Mar 12: 718 June: 760 Sept: 732 Dec: 761
Mar 13: 714 June: 683 Sept: 642 Dec: 593
BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 09-09

Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q4-13 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate (which has not been updated this quarter), with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.


  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 14 EPS Range
Co. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

ACAS 61 62 126 116 83 60 0.84 -28.45% -27.71% 40.00% 18.39 25.43 18.17 97 47 83.33%
AINV 148 126 99 83 83 88 0.91 0.00% 6.02% 3.41% 10.55 9.95 9.63 96 80 18.18%
ARCC 128 132 156 165 164 147 1.56 -0.61% -10.37% 6.12% 10.43 11.63 10.96 164 151 8.84%
BKCC 139 101 100 100 78 81 0.87 -22.00% 3.85% 7.41% 11.95 11.51 10.71 91 73 22.22%
FDUS 0 0 163 154 137 161 1.71 -11.04% 17.52% 6.21% 13.40 11.40 10.74 171 156 9.32%
FSC 127 95 101 107 101 101 1.07 -5.61% 0.00% 5.94% 9.75 9.75 9.21 110 100 9.90%
FULL 0 0 84 78 77 72 0.77 -1.28% -6.49% 6.94% 9.53 10.19 9.53 72 71 1.39%
GAIN 62 48 73 62 68 72 0.73 9.68% 5.88% 1.39% 11.25 10.63 10.48 75 70 6.94%
GBDC 0 0 116 115 129 125 1.36 12.17% -3.10% 8.80% 13.40 13.83 12.71 130 123 5.60%
GLAD 100 84 88 91 88 88 0.84 -3.30% 0.00% -4.55% 10.94 10.94 11.46 84 84 0.00%
HRZN 0 0 150 141 139 114 1.41 -1.42% -17.99% 23.68% 10.29 12.55 10.15 135 116 16.67%
HTGC 125 80 91 97 123 121 1.35 26.80% -1.63% 11.57% 12.44 12.64 11.33 138 117 17.36%
KED 127 125 136 189 240 245 2.50 26.98% 2.08% 2.04% 16.04 15.71 15.40 245 245 0.00%
KCAP 104 53 70 89 91 97 0.99 2.25% 6.59% 2.06% 9.23 8.66 8.48 101 98 3.09%
MAIN 90 100 169 201 202 218 2.39 0.50% 7.92% 9.63% 16.03 14.85 13.55 231 208 10.55%
MCC 0 0 56 131 153 159 1.60 16.79% 3.92% 0.63% 8.36 8.04 7.99 166 140 16.35%

  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 14 EPS Range
Co. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

MCGC 60 60 53 25 44 15 0.13 76.00% -65.91% -13.33% 9.18 26.93 31.08 22 18 26.67%
NMFC 0 0 56 135 152 142 1.45 12.59% -6.58% 2.11% 10.05 10.75 10.53 142 135 4.93%
NGPC 57 54 73 55 64 43 0.50 16.36% -32.81% 16.28% 10.28 15.30 13.16 48 39 20.93%
PSEC 187 109 109 163 157 119 1.16 -3.68% -24.20% -2.52% 6.59 8.69 8.91 129 126 2.52%
PFLT 0 0 5 101 110 117 1.17 8.91% 6.36% 0.00% 13.06 12.28 12.28 107 100 5.98%
PNNT 109 109 125 108 101 108 1.15 -6.48% 6.93% 6.48% 11.45 10.70 10.05 118 111 6.48%
SAR 1640 457 215 186 186 185 1.53 0.00% -0.54% -17.30% 8.53 8.58 10.37 161 161 0.00%
SLRC 200 208 225 220 189 156 1.70 -14.09% -17.46% 8.97% 10.68 12.94 11.87 175 150 16.03%
SUNS 0 0 63 131 118 116 1.29 -9.92% -1.69% 11.21% 13.33 13.56 12.19 136 129 6.03%
TAXI 56 64 101 121 114 114 1.24 -5.79% 0.00% 8.77% 10.92 10.92 10.04 116 108 7.02%
TCAP 161 158 206 216 225 219 2.40 4.17% -2.67% 9.59% 11.97 12.30 11.22 219 208 5.02%
TCRD 0 0 104 138 145 139 1.38 5.07% -4.14% -0.72% 9.68 10.10 10.17 146 133 9.35%
TICC 49 89 94 112 104 112 1.13 -7.14% 7.69% 0.89% 9.36 8.69 8.61 120 112 7.14%

BDC Average           3.36 -5.12 5.58 11.28 12.40 11.76     10.30

Disclosure: The author is long AINV, ARCC, MAIN, PFLT, PNNT.