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MLP Midstream Stats 9-22-14

This is the first time I have shown a 'Yield + CAGR' spreadsheet with both of my price-implied CAGR calculations. I will testing the text that explains these changes - and eventually posting it here.

MLP Midstream 09-22-14

The consensus DCFs were last updated on 09-01-14. The CAGR projections were updated 6-30-14. Yields are based on the Q3-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q3-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year. EPD, OILT and SXL have had price splits that are not reflected in this data.


Company   Current Distrib/ Q3 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
    Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

Access Midstream Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ACMP) 63.61 0.5950 3.74 72.12 69.19 12.42 15.58 -4.35 21.28 2.48 22.68 0.00
American Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:AMID) 30.20 0.4625 6.13 101.09 82.96 11.52 16.65 0.00 22.68 -11.59 6.94 40.00
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:APL) 34.86 0.6300 7.23 90.00 86.30 -0.54 4.85 -95.24 -9.88 -5.08 1.61 4.29
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:BKEP) 7.94 0.1325 6.68 84.13 67.95 -6.70 -2.03 -75.47 0.00 -38.83 10.42 2.35
Buckeye Partners, L.P. (NYSE:BPL) 80.00 1.1125 5.56 96.53 87.60 12.66 17.36 -11.29 11.73 -1.91 4.71 20.00
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (NYSE:BWP) 18.87 0.1000 2.12 23.12 22.86 -26.06 -24.88 -16.53 -28.47 -12.63 -81.22 0.00
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:CMLP) 22.60 0.4100 7.26 94.80 84.97 -9.20 -4.26 -60.71 -8.22 -6.49 2.50 16.67
DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM) 54.09 0.7575 5.60 95.58 86.08 7.43 11.94 -30.00 7.03 -3.65 6.69 4.48
El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EPB) 39.38 0.6500 6.60 97.74 97.01 9.39 14.81 -17.48 0.23 3.10 3.17 8.70
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EEP) 39.62 0.5550 5.60 108.82 100.91 32.64 38.22 -16.07 14.63 -3.77 2.12 33.33
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) 80.62 0.7200 3.57 67.29 65.31 21.60 24.86 4.70 16.85 3.13 5.88 0.00
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) 60.40 0.9950 6.59 84.14 88.44 5.50 10.72 23.46 7.13 0.85 11.33 8.11
EQT Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:EQM) 90.56 0.5200 2.30 62.65 48.71 54.04 56.69 31.68 73.57 7.10 30.00 1.05
Exterran Partners, L.P. (EXLP) 30.12 0.5425 7.20 83.14 86.11 -0.36 5.02 -14.29 5.69 0.00 3.83 0.00
Genesis Energy LP (NYSE:GEL) 53.02 0.5650 4.26 80.71 69.33 0.86 4.08 -26.74 4.88 -4.76 10.78 4.65
Holly Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE:HEP) 36.65 0.5150 5.62 90.75 84.77 13.36 18.14 2.54 3.55 3.65 6.19 0.00
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:KMP) 91.19 1.3900 6.10 98.76 95.37 13.05 18.22 -1.47 8.48 -1.75 5.30 -31.91
Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:MMP) 85.10 0.6400 3.01 72.11 66.84 34.50 37.54 19.06 39.93 15.64 20.19 2.27
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:MWE) 77.43 0.8800 4.55 91.67 79.46 17.09 21.08 -51.85 0.86 -11.52 4.76 -12.64
Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE:NGLS) 70.90 0.7800 4.40 76.10 72.73 35.56 40.04 89.40 29.41 16.81 9.09 7.25
NuStar Energy L.P. (NYSE:NS) 65.35 1.0950 6.70 107.09 96.69 28.16 34.60 16.67 36.56 7.35 0.00 6.67
ONEOK Partners, L.P. (OKS) 54.67 0.7600 5.56 90.48 84.92 3.84 8.17 1.49 5.63 0.60 5.56 0.00
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. (NYSE:OILT) 103.52 0.5200 2.01 58.76 53.47 66.78 69.29 -0.66 61.43 25.53 22.35 19.48
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) 58.01 0.6450 4.45 88.36 80.63 12.05 15.79 -8.61 5.42 -6.71 9.79 0.00
Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE:RGP) 32.07 0.4900 6.11 96.08 87.11 22.12 27.72 -73.08 17.47 -1.45 5.38 25.00
Spectra Energy Partners, LP (NYSE:SEP) 51.77 0.5563 4.30 82.11 83.97 14.16 17.84 -3.91 15.47 5.04 9.34 -1.54
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL) 95.50 0.7300 3.06 67.13 63.20 26.52 29.43 2.67 38.41 -5.64 21.67 1.12
TC PipeLines, LP (NYSE:TCP) 64.20 0.8400 5.23 85.71 83.37 32.56 37.77 16.31 11.43 5.95 3.70 -10.00
Tesoro Logistics LP (TLLP) 69.96 0.6150 3.52 81.73 70.69 33.66 37.19 -0.42 24.85 -1.95 20.59 5.88
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. (NYSE:TLP) 41.94 0.6650 6.34 71.12 78.24 -1.32 3.38 -2.25 -7.85 6.86 2.31 -6.67
Western Gas Partners LP (NYSE:WES) 73.07 0.6500 3.56 81.76 73.24 18.45 21.61 -1.30 18.85 4.26 16.07 0.00
Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE:WPZ) 53.65 0.9165 6.83 100.44 88.34 5.49 10.89 -31.31 6.13 2.24 6.26 -7.41
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:ENLK) 30.65 0.3650 4.76 89.57 80.22 11.05 15.02 36.96 17.05 3.82 10.61 2.35

Pipeline Average     5.05 83.99 77.79 15.52 19.80 -9.03 14.31 7.03 6.68  
Shipping
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM) 18.27 0.4425 9.69 111.32 97.25 -4.45 2.50 43.84 10.18 -9.14 0.00 0.00
Martin Midstream Partners LP (NASDAQ:MMLP) 39.48 0.7925 8.03 96.06 82.55 -7.76 -2.20 -13.13 -3.59 -5.17 1.60 6.06
Teekay LNG Partners LP. (NYSE:TGP) 42.94 0.6918 6.44 91.63 85.67 0.54 5.40 0.93 3.92 2.37 2.49 0.00

Shipping Average     8.05 99.67   -3.89 1.90 10.55 3.50    

MidStream Average   5.30 85.29 78.68 13.91 18.31 -7.40 13.41    

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is 14.08% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 14.67% and with dividends is 18.40%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 7.83% and with dividends is 8.78%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -2.59% and with dividend is -2.33%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.57% & the sector average yield [on Q3 distrib's] at 5.3% - the spread is 273 bps.
With the JNK yielding 5.63% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -34 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.49% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is -19 bps.

To calculate the single price implied CAGR that I have historically displayed - I take the RRR and subtract the yield. What justifies that formula? When a stock is correctly valued AND the CAGR is not discounted, then the Yield + CAGR = RRR. Doing the kind of formula manipulation we learned in algebra, we can arrive at a formula for CAGR by subtracting 'Yield' from both sides of that equation. Doing that, we get to 'CAGR = RRR - Yield'. I would want the RRRs to be higher for the riskier stocks for such a formula to produce meaningful output.
When it comes to P/E ratios, a low price/DCF ratio would logically belong to a stock with a lower CAGR or higher risk - and a high price/DCF ratio would logically belong to a stock with a higher CAGR or lower risk. My formula is 'Ratio - adjustment = CAGR'. I would want the adjustment to be lower for the riskier stocks (because risk would already be a factor in producing lower P/Es) for such a formula to produce meaningful output. This adjustment number pivots on the RRR of 11 - and is the mirror image (compared to the RRR - yield formula) of the difference from 11. For example, a RRR of 11 produces an adjustment of 11. A RRR of 12 (which is 1.0 higher than 11.0) produces an adjustment of 10.0 (which is 1.0 lower than 11.0). A RRR of 10 (which is 1.0 lower than 11.0) produces an adjustment of 12 (which is 1.0 higher than 11.0).
Why do I provide two different price implied CAGRs? Using the 'CAGR = RRR - Yield' formula, the CAGR can not be greater than the RRR. There are not that many stocks with 5 year CAGRs above the 10% to 14% range I use for RRRs - but there are some. Due to DCFs failing to grow in equally stair stepped increments, there are times when the 'DCF ratio' based formula fails to produce meaningful output.

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q3-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Price Implied CAGR Distrib Price
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings RRR-Yld P/DCF / DCF / DCF
Large Cap Midstream
Buckeye Partners, L.P. BPL 5.56% 4.80% 10.36% BBB- 2.50 10.40 -0.04 2.4 4.84 5.75% 96.53 17.35
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP BWP 2.12% 1.00% 3.12% BBB- 4.00 10.70 -7.58 2.5 8.58 -0.39% 23.12 10.91
El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. EPB 6.60% 2.50% 9.10% BBB 1.20 10.30 -1.20 3.2 3.70 3.10% 97.74 14.80
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. EEP 5.60% 2.00% 7.60% BBB 2.60 10.50 -2.90 2.8 4.90 7.92% 108.82 19.42
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD 3.57% 6.70% 10.27% BBB+ 1.20 9.70 0.57 1.6 6.13 6.54% 67.29 18.84
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. ETP 6.59% 4.00% 10.59% BBB- 2.50 10.50 0.09 2.3 3.91 1.27% 84.14 12.77
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. KMP 6.10% 3.20% 9.30% BBB 1.20 10.00 -0.70 2.5 3.90 4.20% 98.76 16.20
Magellan Midstream Partners LP MMP 3.01% 9.00% 12.01% BBB+ 1.00 10.00 2.01 2.4 6.99 11.97% 72.11 23.97
NuStar Energy L.P. NS 6.70% 1.60% 8.30% BB+ 3.50 10.70 -2.40 2.7 4.00 4.68% 107.09 15.98
ONEOK Partners, L.P. OKS 5.56% 6.70% 12.26% BBB 1.40 10.20 2.06 2.3 4.64 4.47% 90.48 16.27
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA 4.45% 8.00% 12.45% BBB 1.10 10.00 2.45 1.9 5.55 7.87% 88.36 19.87
Williams Partners L.P. WPZ 6.83% 5.00% 11.83% BBB 2.50 10.50 1.33 2.3 3.67 3.20% 100.44 14.70

Average   5.22% 4.54% 9.77%         2.41       16.76

Company Q3-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Price Implied CAGR Distrib Price
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings RRR-Yld P/DCF / DCF / DCF
Small Cap Midstream
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. BKEP 6.68% 8.70% 15.38% none 4.00 13.50 1.88 3.3 6.82 4.10% 84.13 12.60
Genesis Energy LP GEL 4.26% 9.00% 13.26% B 3.00 11.50 1.76 2.5 7.24 8.44% 80.71 18.94
Holly Energy Partners L.P. HEP 5.62% 6.00% 11.62% BB- 1.20 11.00 0.62 3.1 5.38 5.15% 90.75 16.15
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. OILT 2.01% 9.20% 11.21% none 1.40 11.00 0.21 2.5 8.99 18.24% 58.76 29.24
Spectra Energy Partners, LP SEP 4.30% 6.40% 10.70% BBB 1.50 10.00 0.70 3.1 5.70 7.10% 82.11 19.10
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. SXL 3.06% 9.00% 12.06% BBB- 1.00 11.00 1.06 2.8 7.94 10.95% 67.13 21.95
TC PipeLines, LP TCP 5.23% 2.70% 7.93% BBB- 1.00 10.50 -2.57 3.3 5.27 4.88% 85.71 16.38
Tesoro Logistics LP TLLP 3.52% 9.00% 12.52% BB- 2.00 10.00 2.52 1.7 6.48 11.24% 81.73 23.24
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. TLP 6.34% 2.80% 9.14% none 1.00 10.00 -0.86 3.0 3.66 -0.79% 71.12 11.21

Average   4.56% 6.98% 11.54%         2.81       18.76

Company Q3-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Price Implied CAGR Distrib Price
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings RRR-Yld P/DCF / DCF / DCF
Gathering & Processing
Access Midstream Partners, L.P. ACMP 3.74% 9.60% 13.34% BB+ 1.10 11.00 2.34 1.8 7.26 8.28% 72.12 19.28
American Midstream Partners, LP AMID 6.13% 6.30% 12.43% none 5.00 12.50 -0.07 2.4 6.37 7.00% 101.09 16.50
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. APL 7.23% 7.30% 14.53% B+ 5.00 13.50 1.03 2.2 6.27 3.95% 90.00 12.45
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP CMLP 7.26% 5.60% 12.86% BB 4.20 12.00 0.86 2.1 4.74 3.06% 94.80 13.06
DCP Midstream Partners LP DPM 5.60% 7.00% 12.60% BBB- 2.60 11.50 1.10 2.0 5.90 6.56% 95.58 17.06
EQT Midstream Partners, LP EQM 2.30% 9.60% 11.90% none 1.30 11.50 0.40 1.8 9.20 16.78% 62.65 27.28
Exterran Partners, L.P. EXLP 7.20% 3.00% 10.20% B 1.70 11.50 -1.30 2.4 4.30 1.04% 83.14 11.54
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. MWE 4.55% 7.60% 12.15% BB 2.70 12.00 0.15 2.3 7.45 10.16% 91.67 20.16
Targa Resources Partners LP NGLS 4.40% 7.40% 11.80% BB+ 1.60 12.00 -0.20 2.5 7.60 7.29% 76.10 17.29
Regency Energy Partners LP RGP 6.11% 5.00% 11.11% BB 2.70 12.00 -0.89 2.4 5.89 5.72% 96.08 15.72
Western Gas Partners LP WES 3.56% 9.10% 12.66% BBB- 1.20 11.00 1.66 1.9 7.44 11.98% 81.76 22.98
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP ENLK 4.76% 8.70% 13.46% BBB 3.50 12.00 1.46 2.2 7.24 8.80% 89.57 18.80

Average   5.24% 7.18% 12.42%         2.17       17.68