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Finding CAGRs At Yahoo

I am going to presume that everyone knows how to get to the 'summary' page for a stock ticker at Yahoo Finance. The data used in this example is for Ventas (NYSE:VTR). In the left hand column, there is a navigation menu that contains the following elements:

QuotesChartsNews & InfoCompanyAnalyst CoverageOwnership

Under "analyst coverage" - choose (or click) the "analyst estimate" option.

You will then see a series of spreadsheets. The first is for "Earnings Estimates". The second is "Revenue Estimates". The third is "Earnings History". Scroll down to "Growth Estimates". That spreadsheet will contain the following data:

Growth Est VTR Industry Sector S&P 500
Current Qtr. 5.70% 25.70% -90.10% 18.00%
Next Qtr. 5.50% 27.60% -91.20% 18.00%
This Year 7.00% 11.00% 8.40% 7.80%
Next Year 5.20% 5.90% 13.30% 10.10%
Past 5 Years (per annum) 4.23% N/A N/A N/A
Next 5 Years (per annum) 5.20% 11.79% 10.81% 9.31%
Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories) 16.49 15.54 17.70 20.99
PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories) 3.17 2.74 2.06 2.37
   

The "Next 5 Years (per annum)" is where you will find the consensus analyst projection for 'earnings metric growth'. The earnings metric that Yahoo uses for Health Care REITs in 'normalized FFO'. There is a very high correlation between normalized FFO growth and dividend growth. The "5.20%" (I have underlined the number and put it in italics to make it easier to find) is what I use for my Yahoo dividend CAGR.

Let's contrast this with the numbers for MLPs. The earning metric Yahoo uses for MLPs is EPS. The key earnings metric for MLPs is "DCF". There is a correlation between DCF growth and distribution growth for MLPs. There is NOT a correlation between EPS growth and distribution growth. So the Yahoo 5 year CAGR for MLPs is a garbage in - garbage out' calculation.

Whether the CAGR you find at Yahoo is a good and meaningful number is a "sector by sector" decision. It's bad for MLPs. It is always too high for BDCs. Those are the exceptions. The quality is relatively good in all other sectors. I should add that 'relatively good' can still result in unrealistically volatile numbers.

I have the impression that David Fish and the CCC List leans on a source for his CAGRs that also causes unrealistic volatility.