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The Grocery List Portfolio - 4-24-15

Let's call this part two of the story "It is all about earnings." In this update - I will avoid commentary and stick with the data.

The Correlation of EPS Revisions to year to date returns The following companies had growing EPS estimates since the beginning of 2015: CLX and HRL. Their mean price gain for the year is 5.05%. Their mean total return for the year is 5.65% - and 2 of the 2 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had decreases - but decreases of less than 5% - to the EPS estimates: CPB, KO, CAG, FLO, HSY, LANC, MKC and SJM. Their mean price gain for the year is 3.78%. Their mean total return for the year is 4.47% - and 6 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had decreases to the EPS estimates of more than 5% since the beginning of 2015: ADM, CL, INGR, K, KMB, PEP and PG. Their mean price gain for the year is -4.68%. Their mean total return for the year is -3.93% - and 0 of the 7 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

Grocery Portfolio 4-24-15

The Q1-15 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q1-14. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q1-10. CL and GIS have raised their Q2-15 dividends.


    12-31-14 4-24 Div Current Div/ Div/ Percent Change
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield EPS15 EPS16 Price Pr+Div EPS15 Target Div 1yr Div 5yr

Archer-Daniels (NYSE:ADM) 52.00 48.21 0.280 2.32 34% 31% -7.29 -6.75 -7.80 -5.20 16.67 17.33
Campbell (NYSE:CPB) 44.00 45.81 0.313 2.73 53% 50% 4.11 4.82 -4.47 4.19 0.00 2.73
Coke (NYSE:KO) 42.22 40.89 0.330 3.23 67% 62% -3.15 -2.37 -2.94 1.36 8.20 10.00
ConAgra (NYSE:CAG) 36.28 37.52 0.250 2.67 46% 44% 3.42 4.11 -3.98 1.82 0.00 5.00
Colgate (NYSE:CL) 69.19 69.17 0.360 2.08 49% 44% -0.03 0.49 -5.14 3.18 5.88 12.73
Ingredion (NYSE:INGR) 84.84 77.19 0.420 2.18 30% 27% -9.02 -8.52 -7.82 2.50 0.00 40.00
Clorox (NYSE:CLX) 104.21 109.24 0.740 2.71 65% 61% 4.83 5.54 1.57 15.58 4.23 9.60
Flowers (NYSE:FLO) 19.19 22.31 0.133 2.38 55% 50% 16.26 16.95 -1.02 6.93 17.78 14.06
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) 53.33 56.38 0.410 2.91 58% 55% 5.72 6.49 0.00 3.57 7.89 13.47
Hershey (NYSE:HSY) 103.93 94.63 0.535 2.26 49% 45% -8.95 -8.43 -2.25 0.69 10.31 13.44
Hormel (NYSE:HRL) 52.10 54.85 0.250 1.82 39% 36% 5.28 5.76 1.18 6.31 25.00 27.62
Kellogg (NYSE:K) 65.44 63.73 0.490 3.08 54% 52% -2.61 -1.86 -11.11 -1.84 6.52 6.13
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) 115.54 111.64 0.880 3.15 61% 57% -3.38 -1.85 -5.13 0.56 4.76 6.67
Lancaster (NASDAQ:LANC) 93.64 94.82 0.460 1.94 51% 45% 1.26 1.75 -4.49 9.47 4.55 10.67
McCormick (NYSE:MKC) 74.30 75.84 0.400 2.11 46% 43% 2.07 3.15 -3.06 4.31 8.11 10.77
Pepsi (NASDAQ:PEP) 94.56 95.17 0.655 2.75 56% 52% 0.65 1.34 -5.10 6.39 15.42 9.11
Procter&Gamble (NYSE:PG) 91.09 81.00 0.644 3.18 65% 61% -11.08 -10.37 -8.29 -0.42 6.82 9.25
JM Smucker (NYSE:SJM) 100.98 116.31 0.640 2.20 48% 44% 15.18 15.82 -3.06 13.52 10.34 16.57

Average         2.54 51% 48% 0.74 1.45 -4.05 4.05 8.47 13.06

The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 2.97% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 3.43% year to date.
The KXI [Consumer Staples ETF] is up 5.35% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is up 5.35%.
With the 10 Treasury at 1.91% and the sector average yield on the Q1 dividend at 2.54% - the spread is 63 basis points.
* The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

Price/Earnings Ratios 4-24


  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS 2015 Fiscal Year EPS Year
Co. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 2014 2015 2016 High Low Range End

ADM 2.30 2.33 3.20 3.31 3.62 1.30 37.34 3.44 9.37 15.07 14.56 13.32 3.53 3.09 13.29% Dec
CPB 2.44 2.64 2.53 2.35 2.48 8.20 -4.17 -7.11 5.53 18.11 19.49 18.47 2.40 2.33 2.98% Jul
KO 2.01 2.08 2.04 1.98 2.12 3.48 -1.92 -2.94 7.07 20.04 20.65 19.29 2.07 1.92 7.58% Dec
CAG 1.84 2.16 2.17 2.17 2.26 17.39 0.46 0.00 4.15 17.29 17.29 16.60 2.19 2.13 2.76% May
CL 2.68 2.84 2.93 2.95 3.24 5.97 3.17 0.68 9.83 23.61 23.45 21.35 3.04 2.77 9.15% Dec
INGR 5.57 5.05 5.20 5.54 6.14 -9.34 2.97 6.54 10.83 14.84 13.93 12.57 5.75 5.40 6.32% Dec
CLX 4.10 4.31 4.26 4.52 4.83 5.12 -1.16 6.10 6.86 25.64 24.17 22.62 4.57 4.42 3.32% Jun
FLO 0.69 0.91 0.88 0.97 1.05 31.88 -3.30 10.23 8.25 25.35 23.00 21.25 1.01 0.88 13.40% Dec
GIS 2.56 2.69 2.82 2.83 2.98 5.08 4.83 0.35 5.30 19.99 19.92 18.92 2.90 2.79 3.89% May
HSY 3.24 3.72 3.98 4.35 4.74 14.81 6.99 9.30 8.97 23.78 21.75 19.96 4.45 4.30 3.45% Dec
HRL 1.86 1.97 2.23 2.57 2.77 5.91 13.20 15.25 7.78 24.60 21.34 19.80 2.63 2.55 3.11% Oct
K 3.61 3.77 3.81 3.60 3.80 4.43 1.06 -5.51 5.56 16.73 17.70 16.77 3.70 3.51 5.28% Dec
KMB 5.25 5.77 5.51 5.73 6.18 9.90 -4.51 3.99 7.85 20.26 19.48 18.06 5.75 5.44 5.41% Dec
LANC 3.45 3.98 3.69 3.62 4.05 15.36 -7.29 -1.90 11.88 25.70 26.19 23.41 3.63 3.56 1.93% Jun
MKC 3.04 3.13 3.37 3.49 3.75 2.96 7.67 3.56 7.45 22.50 21.73 20.22 3.51 3.45 1.72% Nov
PEP 4.10 4.37 4.63 4.65 5.00 6.59 5.95 0.43 7.53 20.56 20.47 19.03 4.81 4.51 6.45% Dec
PG 3.85 4.05 4.09 3.98 4.24 5.19 0.99 -2.69 6.53 19.80 20.35 19.10 4.05 3.90 3.77% Jun
SJM 4.73 5.37 5.64 5.38 5.83 13.53 5.03 -4.61 8.36 20.62 21.62 19.95 5.40 5.34 1.12% Apr

Average           3.74 1.95 7.73 20.81 20.40 18.93      

Disclosure: The author is long CL, GIS, HRL, HSY, INGR, PEP, PG, SJM.