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BDC Stats 7-10-15

I happen to write about "historical earnings projection accuracy" in many of my Seeking Alpha articles. There are two reasons for this. (1) It's important because it is a key to avoiding mistakes. And (2) I am not finding other sources that are telling you its important. I track this metric for each company I follow - and assign a rating from 1 (great) to 5 (terrible) to each company. Below is the year to date data for BDCs:

The Importance of Intra-Year EPS Projections The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that increased since the beginning of the year: ACSF, CMFN, GAIN, GARS, OFS, PFLT, SAR, SUNS, TAXI, TCRD and WHF. Their mean price gain for the year is 4.9%. Their mean total return for the year is 10.3% - and 9 of the 11 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean accuracy rating is 2.19.
The following company had 2015 EPS projections that have not changed since the beginning of the year: OHAI. Its mean price gain for the year is 21.11% (a dead cat bounce). Its mean total return for the year is 28.78% - and 1 of the 1 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Its mean accuracy rating is 5.
The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that fell since the beginning of the year: AINV, ARCC, BKCC, CPTA, FDUS, FSC, FSFR, FSIC, FULL, GBDC, GLAD, HRZN, HTGC, KCAP, MAIN, MCC, MRCC, NMFC, PSEC, PNNT, SLRC, TCAP, TCPC, TICC, TPVG and TSLX. Their mean price gain for the year is -5.01%. Their mean total return for the year is 0.23% - and 9 of the 26 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean accuracy rating is 2.7.

There is an important point in those stats. Most of the companies with downgrades to their 2015 earnings projections already had poor histories with earnings projection accuracy.

Which BDCs have had terrible 2015s? FSC, FULL, HGC and KCAP. Look at the changes in their earnings projections to find the reasons. Below are the 'year to date' and 'price/NII" spreadsheets with data updated from market's close on Friday:

BDCs 07-10-15

Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q2-15 'regular' dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2015 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q2-15 dividend from the Q2-14 dividend; and the change in NAV between Q1-15 and Q1-14. All BDCs have reported their calendar Q1-15 numbers. Special dividends are not included in this data. ARCC, CPTA, FSIC, MAIN and TCPC have paid special dividends on a near regular schedule.



      Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q1-15 Price YTD Percent Change LTM LTM
Company_name_and_ticker Yield EPS15 EPS16 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target Div NAV

American Capital Senior Floating (ACSF) 8.91 94.3 95.9 96.5 8.0 14.51 0.90 7.51 12.30 4.24 1.13 3.57 -3.97
Apollo Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:AINV) 11.08 92.0 88.9 87.6 9.8 8.18 0.88 -2.70 5.39 -8.42 -9.35 0.00 -5.65
Ares Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:ARCC) 9.25 98.1 93.8 104.9 9.1 16.71 0.98 5.38 10.26 -2.52 -0.82 0.00 1.77
BlackRock Capital Investment (NASDAQ:BKCC) 9.19 96.6 90.3 125.9 7.9 10.58 0.86 11.46 19.15 -1.14 3.08 0.00 10.32
CM Finance Inc (NASDAQ:CMFN) 11.20 97.1 97.7 102.1 9.6 14.42 0.86 12.64 18.95 3.62 0.00 2.66 -1.57
Capitala Finance Corp. (NASDAQ:CPTA) 11.64 110.6 98.9 128.0 10.2 18.35 0.88 -9.63 -4.36 -10.99 -4.84 0.00 -9.74
Fidus Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:FDUS) 9.87 94.4 89.4 94.2 10.0 15.19 1.01 3.70 8.82 -3.01 -3.53 0.00 -0.20
Fifth Street Finance Corp. (FSC) 11.01 88.9 88.9 81.2 7.8 9.18 0.71 -18.35 -13.18 -22.86 -21.58 -27.97 -6.42
Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate (FSFR) 12.90 104.3 102.6 110.9 9.6 12.46 0.75 -9.00 -3.13 -2.54 -5.58 11.11 -17.65
Franklin Square Investment Corp (NYSE:FSIC) 8.67 90.1 89.2 90.7 9.0 9.90 1.04 3.63 8.12 -1.00 2.38 0.00 -3.70
Full Circle Capital Corporation (FULL) 7.87 45.9 54.9 42.4 6.3 4.43 0.80 -21.24 -18.14 -14.08 -35.85 -65.00 -38.47
Gladstone Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:GAIN) 8.97 94.7 87.8 96.5 7.8 9.18 0.87 14.71 19.86 7.04 3.13 20.00 10.07
Garrison Capital Inc. (NASDAQ:GARS) 9.25 89.7 87.0 87.5 9.1 15.41 0.98 4.78 9.63 2.63 -1.46 0.00 -0.26
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (NASDAQ:GBDC) 7.91 102.4 98.5 103.5 8.2 15.61 1.04 -9.76 -6.19 -4.58 -0.28 0.00 1.30
Gladstone Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:GLAD) 10.43 105.0 100.0 104.6 8.8 9.55 0.84 -2.66 2.42 -4.76 -5.56 0.00 -2.45
Horizon Technology Finance Corp (NASDAQ:HRZN) 11.24 108.7 95.8 109.1 9.7 14.19 0.87 -12.22 -7.29 -7.97 1.60 0.00 -0.91
Hercules Technology Growth Capital (NASDAQ:HTGC) 10.70 125.3 93.2 118.5 11.8 10.47 1.11 -22.11 -17.94 -26.12 -13.64 0.00 -1.04
KCAP Financial,Inc. (NASDAQ:KCAP) 15.41 116.7 121.7 144.4 11.7 7.16 0.76 -20.09 -13.93 -24.21 -22.86 -16.00 -6.04

      Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q1-15 Price YTD Percent Change LTM LTM
Company_name_and_ticker Yield EPS15 EPS16 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target Div NAV

Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE:MAIN) 6.53 95.0 90.1 96.2 9.6 21.87 1.47 9.95 13.54 -7.14 0.28 6.06 8.59
Medley Capital Corporation (NYSE:MCC) 13.29 91.6 90.9 83.8 10.3 11.68 0.77 -2.27 4.22 -11.49 -8.86 -18.92 -7.96
Monroe Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:MRCC) 9.45 88.6 84.8 83.0 9.9 14.11 1.05 2.49 7.33 -0.63 -2.00 2.94 0.86
New Mountain Finance Corporation (NYSE:NMFC) 9.29 99.3 95.8 104.6 9.8 13.89 1.05 -2.01 2.54 -4.20 -0.86 0.00 -4.40
OFS Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:OFS) 11.43 107.1 91.3 130.5 9.6 14.24 0.84 1.02 6.79 10.43 -1.79 0.00 -1.45
Oak Hill Advisors (NASDAQ:OHAI) 8.45 129.7 111.6 1297.3 6.6 7.27 0.78 21.11 28.78 0.00 0.00 -25.00 -16.72
Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC) 13.57 97.1 97.1 98.2 9.7 10.30 0.72 -10.77 -4.72 -5.50 -13.12 -24.81 -3.56
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (NASDAQ:PFLT) 8.14 89.8 100.9 86.6 8.0 14.30 0.98 2.04 6.19 6.72 0.87 5.56 -1.11
PennantPark Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:PNNT) 13.33 101.8 97.4 110.4 10.9 10.25 0.82 -11.86 -5.98 -4.35 -11.53 0.00 -7.91
Saratoga Investment Corp. (NYSE:SAR) 6.33 58.1 56.8 62.6 4.8 22.70 0.75 14.95 18.59 14.81 1.65 na 6.27
Solar Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ:SLRC) 8.81 105.3 88.9 107.1 7.3 21.91 0.83 0.83 5.27 -7.32 -2.06 0.00 -2.32
Solar Senior Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ:SUNS) 9.00 102.9 100.0 117.5 8.0 17.65 0.89 4.68 9.39 2.24 0.00 0.00 -2.16
Medallion Financial Corp. (TAXI) 11.34 78.1 71.4 88.5 9.0 11.16 0.79 -11.89 -6.89 6.67 0.00 4.17 1.92
Triangle Capital Corporation (TCAP) 9.44 101.9 94.7 102.0 13.8 15.64 1.46 12.81 18.14 -3.20 -3.18 0.00 -0.51
TCP Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:TCPC) 9.27 92.3 87.3 93.0 9.6 15.03 1.03 -7.45 -3.16 -4.29 -0.23 0.00 -1.89
THL Credit, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCRD) 12.09 97.8 97.1 93.3 10.3 13.20 0.85 -4.34 1.45 1.46 -6.33 0.00 -1.05
TICC Capital Corp. (TICC) 17.55 158.9 158.9 127.0 13.3 8.72 0.76 -12.22 -4.52 -35.40 -18.04 0.00 -10.84
TriplePoint Venture Growth (NYSE:TPVG) 10.88 91.1 80.9 84.1 9.9 14.48 0.91 -10.84 -5.99 -4.24 0.00 20.00 -0.69
TPG Specialty Lending (NYSE:TSLX) 8.85 95.7 92.9 80.3 10.0 15.60 1.13 4.76 9.39 -1.81 -0.69 2.63 0.58
WhiteHorse Finance (NASDAQ:WHF) 11.41 100.0 100.7 116.0 9.5 15.00 0.83 7.79 17.01 14.52 1.51 0.00 -1.51

Sector Average 10.37 98.3     9.3   0.92 -1.45 3.90 -3.93 -4.69

With the 10 Treasury at 2.40% and sector average yield (on Q2 dividends) at 10.37% - the spread is 797 bps.
The cap weighted ETF BDCS has a price change of -4.20% year to date - with dividends its total return is 1.81%.

BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 07-10

Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q4-13 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. All EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.


  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios Current Fiscal Year
Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 13-14 14-15 15-16 2014 2015 2016 High Low Range

ACSF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 1.23 1.21 na 223.68% -1.63% 34.26 10.59 10.76 1.31 1.19 9.76%
AINV 1.26 0.99 0.83 0.83 0.91 0.87 0.90 9.64% -4.40% 3.45% 7.93 8.30 8.02 0.98 0.78 22.99%
ARCC 1.32 1.56 1.65 1.64 1.43 1.55 1.62 -12.80% 8.39% 4.52% 11.50 10.61 10.15 1.63 1.51 7.74%
BKCC 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.78 0.91 0.87 0.93 16.67% -4.40% 6.90% 10.04 10.51 9.83 0.95 0.72 26.44%
CMFN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.17 1.43 1.42 na 22.22% -0.70% 10.59 8.66 8.73 1.49 1.37 8.39%
CPTA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.54 1.70 1.90 na 10.39% 11.76% 10.49 9.50 8.50 1.98 1.55 25.29%
FDUS 0.00 1.63 1.54 1.37 1.62 1.61 1.70 18.25% -0.62% 5.59% 9.51 9.57 9.06 1.66 1.55 6.83%
FSC 0.95 1.01 1.07 1.01 0.99 0.81 0.81 -1.98% -18.18% 0.00% 6.61 8.07 8.07 0.85 0.78 8.64%
FSFR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 1.15 1.17 na 19.79% 1.74% 9.69 8.09 7.95 1.22 1.07 13.04%
FSIC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.99 1.00 na 23.75% 1.01% 12.86 10.39 10.29 1.02 0.95 7.07%
FULL 0.00 0.84 0.78 0.77 0.71 0.61 0.51 -7.79% -14.08% -16.39% 5.01 5.84 6.98 0.62 0.59 4.92%
GAIN 0.48 0.73 0.62 0.68 0.73 0.76 0.82 7.35% 4.11% 7.89% 11.00 10.57 9.79 0.80 0.73 9.21%
GARS 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 1.31 1.56 1.61 2.34% 19.08% 3.21% 11.55 9.70 9.40 1.64 1.40 15.38%
GBDC 0.00 1.16 1.15 1.29 1.26 1.25 1.30 -2.33% -0.79% 4.00% 12.84 12.94 12.45 1.30 1.21 7.20%
GLAD 0.84 0.88 0.91 0.88 0.87 0.80 0.84 -1.14% -8.05% 5.00% 9.25 10.06 9.58 0.84 0.77 8.75%
HRZN 0.00 1.50 1.41 1.39 1.11 1.27 1.44 -20.14% 14.41% 13.39% 11.06 9.67 8.53 1.33 1.21 9.45%

  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios Current Fiscal Year
Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 13-14 14-15 15-16 2014 2015 2016 High Low Range

HTGC 0.80 0.91 0.97 1.23 1.13 0.99 1.33 -8.13% -12.39% 34.34% 10.26 11.71 8.71 1.06 0.92 14.14%
KCAP 0.53 0.70 0.89 0.91 0.97 0.72 0.69 6.59% -25.77% -4.17% 5.62 7.57 7.90 0.77 0.69 11.11%
MAIN 1.00 1.69 2.01 2.02 2.20 2.21 2.33 8.91% 0.45% 5.43% 14.61 14.55 13.80 2.37 2.09 12.67%
MCC 0.00 0.56 1.31 1.53 1.58 1.31 1.32 3.27% -17.09% 0.76% 5.72 6.89 6.84 1.62 1.24 29.01%
MRCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 1.55 1.58 1.65 7.64% 1.94% 4.43% 9.56 9.38 8.98 1.75 1.46 18.35%
NMFC 0.00 0.56 1.35 1.52 1.41 1.37 1.42 -7.24% -2.84% 3.65% 10.38 10.69 10.31 1.38 1.36 1.46%
OFS 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.62 0.99 1.27 1.49 59.68% 28.28% 17.32% 12.02 9.37 7.99 1.33 1.23 7.87%
OHAI 0.54 0.73 0.55 0.64 0.61 0.37 0.43 -4.69% -39.34% 16.22% 9.31 15.35 13.21 0.37 0.37 0.00%
PSEC 1.09 1.09 1.63 1.57 1.19 1.03 1.03 -24.20% -13.45% 0.00% 6.19 7.16 7.16 1.06 1.01 4.85%
PFLT 0.00 0.05 1.01 1.10 1.12 1.27 1.13 1.82% 13.39% -11.02% 12.51 11.03 12.40 1.29 1.22 5.51%
PNNT 1.09 1.25 1.08 1.01 1.06 1.10 1.15 4.95% 3.77% 4.55% 7.92 7.64 7.30 1.12 1.09 2.73%
SAR 4.57 2.15 1.86 1.86 1.85 1.86 1.90 -0.54% 0.54% 2.15% 9.23 9.18 8.98 2.02 1.85 9.14%
SLRC 2.08 2.25 2.20 1.89 1.56 1.52 1.80 -17.46% -2.56% 18.42% 11.65 11.95 10.09 1.58 1.48 6.58%
SUNS 0.00 0.63 1.31 1.18 1.20 1.37 1.41 1.69% 14.17% 2.92% 13.06 11.44 11.11 1.40 1.34 4.38%
TAXI 0.64 1.01 1.21 1.14 1.14 1.28 1.40 0.00% 12.28% 9.37% 7.74 6.89 6.30 1.28 1.28 0.00%
TCAP 1.58 2.06 2.16 2.25 2.08 2.12 2.28 -7.56% 1.92% 7.55% 11.00 10.80 10.04 2.16 2.10 2.83%
TCPC 0.00 0.00 1.81 1.63 1.56 1.56 1.65 -4.29% 0.00% 5.77% 9.96 9.96 9.41 1.60 1.54 3.85%
TCRD 0.00 1.04 1.38 1.45 1.42 1.39 1.40 -2.07% -2.11% 0.72% 7.92 8.09 8.04 1.44 1.35 6.47%
TICC 0.89 0.94 1.12 1.04 1.05 0.73 0.73 0.96% -30.48% 0.00% 6.30 9.05 9.05 0.77 0.67 13.70%
TPVG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.58 1.78 na 21.54% 12.66% 10.18 8.38 7.44 1.75 1.50 15.82%
TSLX 0.00 0.00 1.36 1.66 2.07 1.63 1.68 24.70% -21.26% 3.07% 8.51 10.81 10.49 1.65 1.60 3.07%
WHF 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 1.14 1.42 1.41 -10.94% 24.56% -0.70% 10.92 8.77 8.83 1.52 1.36 11.27%

BDC Average           1.29 6.60 4.82 10.39 9.73 9.28     9.89