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Health Care / Pharma Stocks 9/11/15

Even when you have the historical stats that provide evidence that, as an investor, you know what you are doing -- the market will offer to your portfolio the kind of returns that indicate that you do not. That is one reason why you need diversification. If I were heavily weighted in MLPs, I would be distressed in 2015 - where I have had confidence destroying returns (when viewed from my brokerage statements - but not my checking account statements). I am thankful for a near 10% weighting in consumer staples and close to the same weighting in health care / pharma. I am thankful that the lessons of CAGR and RRR awareness (learned from investing in banks, MLPs and REITs) have led me to a good portfolio in these stocks.

With all that being said, this sector is not behaving as it should. Superior stocks are not out performing by the degree they should. Inferior stocks are not under performing by the degree they should. Stocks are performing in line with target changes by a higher than average degree. Stocks are performing in line with EPS changes by a lower than average degree. The lone metric that is working (and working well above my expectations) - my adjusted CAGR projections. I displayed my spreadsheet for the setting of my CAGR projections in my last article on this sector - Health Care Stocks For A Dividend Growth Portfolio - Part 2. It does not help to have CAGR awareness if you are using poor CAGR projections.

The data (lots of data):

Health Care / Pharma Stocks 9-11-15

Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q3-15 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. At this point in time, companies that pay dividends once per year have had their payouts divided by four and encoded in this data as if they paid a quarterly dividend. AZN pays two unidentical dividends per year. I take the sum of those dividends and divide by four to get a run rate dividend per quarter. GILD's first dividend was in Q2-15. SNY was added when AGN was dropped. My sources did not agree on SNY's historical earnings data. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2015 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the dividend since Q2-14; and the average yearly change in the dividend since Q2-12. BAX spun off its biopharmaceuticals business to form Baxalta (BXLT), while maintaining a 19.5% interest in BXLT. Each BAX share received one BXLT share. BXLT began trading on 7-01-15 at $32.88 while BAX went from a $69.93 close to a $37.55 open. This is treated as a 1.841 to one stock split - which would imply a $37.98 open. (All historical prices and EPS numbers were divided by 1.841) The dividend went from $0.52 to $0.28246. 2015 EPS went from $3.95 to $1.33 - to $1.29 on 7-31-15 (which still looks wrong compared to the $1.13 annual dividend - the prior dividend/EPS ratio was 53%) while BXLT began with a 2015 projection of $1.93 (still the same on 7-17). The 2016 EPS went from $4.06 to $1.48 while BXLT began at $1.97 - and it is now $2.01. BAX went from an unadjusted $4.90/share 2014 EPS to an adjusted $2.66. And that is still twice the 2015 projection. In summation, the BAX numbers are flakey. There may be future adjustments. That transaction may explain the lack of LTM dividend growth for BAX. AZN had a two for one stock split on 7-27-15 - and that change is not yet reflected in the data.


    Div Current Div/ Div/ Percent Change
Company and ticker Price /Quarter Yield EPS15 EPS16 Price Pr+Div EPS15 Target Div 1yr Div 3yr

Agilent Technologies (NYSE:A) 35.96 0.100 1.11 23.5% 20.3% -12.16 -11.43 -2.30 4.65 5.93 11.99
AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) 59.35 0.510 3.44 48.0% 40.6% -9.31 -6.97 -1.16 8.25 21.43 na
AmerisourceBergen Corporation (NYSE:ABC) 104.34 0.290 1.11 23.3% 20.7% 15.73 16.69 11.94 32.17 23.40 32.28
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) 43.41 0.240 2.21 44.2% 39.7% -3.58 -1.98 -3.98 18.53 9.09 7.87
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) 153.21 0.790 2.06 32.4% 29.5% -3.82 -2.33 4.83 9.78 29.51 29.95
AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE:AZN) 66.60 0.700 4.20 65.7% 69.0% -5.37 -2.39 0.95 -3.82 0.00 0.00
Baxter International Inc. (NYSE:BAX) 36.02 0.282 3.14 85.6% 79.6% -9.52 -8.10 -48.44 -2.35 0.00 5.00
Bayer AG (OTCPK:BAYRY) 135.87 0.638 1.88 32.5% 29.3% -8.58 -6.86 4.81 11.52 -11.55 21.34
CR Bard Inc. (NYSE:BCR) 192.76 0.240 0.50 10.6% 9.6% 15.69 16.08 -1.63 25.81 9.09 6.28
Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE:BDX) 135.98 0.600 1.76 33.8% 28.5% -2.29 -1.42 4.41 12.48 10.09 10.06
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) 59.22 0.370 2.50 80.4% 66.1% 0.32 2.20 2.22 23.34 2.78 2.86
Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE:CAH) 85.01 0.387 1.82 31.0% 26.9% 5.30 6.74 17.37 13.10 12.83 17.78
Quest Diagnostics (NYSE:DGX) 65.62 0.380 2.32 31.9% 29.7% -2.15 -0.45 8.68 16.36 15.15 33.87
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) 109.63 0.430 1.57 14.8% 14.7% 16.31 16.76 18.02 2.08 0.00 na
GlaxoSmithKline PLC (NYSE:GSK) 40.26 0.592 5.88 103.0% 85.8% -5.80 -0.92 -22.82 -2.84 -8.64 4.42
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) 92.93 0.750 3.23 48.6% 46.9% -11.13 -8.98 0.00 0.28 7.14 7.13
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) 81.80 0.500 2.44 61.0% 55.9% 18.57 20.74 2.18 32.46 2.04 0.68
McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) 197.64 0.280 0.57 8.8% 7.7% -4.79 -4.56 17.64 13.62 16.67 12.22
Medtronic Inc. (NYSE:MDT) 69.90 0.380 2.17 34.8% 31.5% -3.85 -2.28 7.90 7.27 24.59 13.74
Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MRK) 52.09 0.450 3.46 51.3% 47.2% -8.28 -5.90 -0.85 1.97 2.27 2.33
Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) 56.95 0.190 1.33 38.2% 33.2% 34.57 35.47 2.05 42.69 -8.43 16.49
Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) 96.55 0.704 2.92 54.8% 51.8% 4.20 5.72 -12.44 12.52 3.56 4.64
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) 32.97 0.280 3.40 54.4% 47.7% 5.84 8.54 -7.21 14.17 7.69 8.37
Perrigo Company PLC (NYSE:PRGO) 179.67 0.125 0.28 6.5% 5.6% 7.48 7.71 5.30 15.34 19.05 16.07
Roche Holding AG (OTCQX:RHHBY) 33.62 0.271 3.22 59.6% 55.0% -10.87 -8.00 -14.95 -3.98 -1.28 5.37
Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) 50.23 0.402 3.20 50.6% 49.5% 10.13 13.65 -1.55 5.25 -15.81 -2.40
St. Jude Medical Inc. (NYSE:STJ) 69.79 0.290 1.66 29.1% 26.8% 7.32 8.66 -5.24 13.60 7.41 8.03
Stryker Corporation (NYSE:SYK) 99.64 0.345 1.38 27.0% 24.6% 5.63 6.73 -1.73 16.00 13.11 17.54
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NYSE:TEVA) 63.66 0.340 2.14 25.3% 23.9% 10.69 12.47 4.88 24.53 -3.68 11.75
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc (NYSE:TMO) 122.90 0.150 0.49 8.1% 7.3% -1.91 -1.55 -4.40 8.75 0.00 5.13
Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ZBH) 100.20 0.220 0.88 13.1% 11.3% -11.66 -11.07 4.84 2.53 0.00 7.04
Zoetis Inc. (NYSE:ZTS) 45.00 0.083 0.73 19.9% 17.4% 4.58 5.15 -1.78 10.25 13.79 na

Average       2.16 39.1% 39.1% 1.48 3.05 -0.39 12.07 6.48 11.21

With the 10 Treasury at 2.19% and the sector average yield [on Q3 Divs] at 2.16% - the spread is -3 basis points.
The cap weighted ETF XLV is up 3.29% year to date - with dividends included, its total return is 3.59%.
The yield on the XLV is 1.31% using the sum of LTM dividends - while LTM dividend growth is 8.19%.

Differences between my coverage universe and the XLV My coverage includes BAYRY, GSK, NVO, NVS, RHHBY and SNY - and those non-US companies are not in the XLV. The XLV includes significant weightings in non-dividend paying CELG and BIIB. It has minor weightings in REGN, VRTX, MYL, BSX, ISRG, EW, MNK, LH and WAT. Stats for these are provided below. For this grouping a dividend CAGR is meaningless. I show the last two end of quarter Yahoo projections of five year EPS growth in the two columns on the right.


    12-31-14 9-11 YTD Change   Earnings Per Share P/E Ratios Yahoo CAGR
Company and ticker Price Price Price EPS Target   2013 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ:BIIB) 342.40 315.37 -7.89 -2.15 2.12   896 1383 1594 1782 22.80 19.78 17.70 21.20 17.64 16.84
Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE:BSX) 13.17 16.89 28.25 2.25 3.69   46 84 91 105 20.11 18.56 16.09 10.53 9.87 11.09
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) 113.35 123.97 9.37 -1.23 27.42   298 371 480 597 33.42 25.83 20.77 25.76 25.46 25.09
Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE:EW) 129.90 139.13 7.11 8.44 23.03   313 350 437 478 39.75 31.84 29.11 14.87 14.06 13.94
Gilead Sciences Inc.   93.79 109.63 16.89 18.02 2.08   204 809 1166 1167 13.55 9.40 9.39 23.96 13.22 20.60
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG) 531.24 515.30 -3.00 -4.14 9.38   1673 1610 1735 1982 32.01 29.70 26.00 3.50 3.58 12.70
Laboratory Corp. of America (NYSE:LH) 108.25 118.52 9.49 7.79 26.39   695 680 789 879 17.43 15.02 13.48 8.75 9.90 11.08
Mallinckrodt PLC (NYSE:MNK) 97.91 82.08 -16.17 10.98 22.27   317 494 738 817 16.62 11.12 10.05 24.09 28.79 28.79
Mylan, Inc. (NASDAQ:MYL) 57.60 48.65 -15.54 1.92 11.01   289 356 424 472 13.67 11.47 10.31 14.26 13.14 24.21
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN) 413.48 533.30 28.98 4.26 51.44   381 1000 1224 1489 53.33 43.57 35.82 20.21 18.86 20.00
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) 118.41 134.06 13.22 236.84 11.87   -198 -314 -128 405 na na 33.10 19.00 29.90 29.90
Waters Corporation (NYSE:WAT) 114.35 124.59 8.95 -1.35 18.61   504 548 585 642 22.74 21.30 19.41 9.42 9.08 9.17

Average       6.64 23.47 17.44           25.95 21.60 21.93   16.13 18.62

The Predictive Power of the Dividend/EPS Ratio on Valuations: Dividend to EPS ratios range from as low as the single digits to the 80s - and may look all too random. But this ratio - during most time periods - helps explain the variety of yields and P/E ratios. There is some correlation to YTD price changes as well.

The stocks that did not pay dividends had a YTD mean price gain = 6.64%. They had an average price/earnings ratio = 21.60. They had an average Yahoo CAGR projection of 18.62.

In this sector, there are growth companies that have not been dividend growth companies. Having dividend/EPS ratios under 25% is a key indicator of irregular dividend growth. The following stocks had Q2-15 Dividend/EPS ratios of less than 25%: A , ABC , BCR , GILD , MCK , PRGO , TMO , ZBH , ZTS . Their YTD mean price gain = 3.25% and 5 of the 9 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [1.48%]. Their mean yield = 0.80% and they had an average price/earnings ratio = 18.91. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 9.77% and they had an average CAGR projection of 9.39.

The following had Q2-15 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 25% - but less than 40%: AMGN , BAYRY , BDX , CAH , DGX , MDT , NVO , STJ , SYK , TEVA . Their YTD mean price gain = 4.28% and 5 of the 10 beat the sector mean yearly price gain. Their mean yield = 1.85% - and they sold at an average price/earnings ratio = 17.64. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 8.90% and they had an average CAGR projection of 7.71.

The following had Q2-15 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 40% - but less than 50%: ABBV , ABT , JNJ . Their YTD mean price gain = -8.00% and 0 of the 3 beat the sector mean yearly price gain. Their mean yield = 2.96% - and they sold at an average price/earnings ratio = 16.34. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 12.55% and they had an average CAGR projection of 7.40.

The following companies had Q2-15 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 50%: AZN , BAX , BMY , GSK , LLY , MRK , NVS , PFE , RHHBY , SNY . Their YTD mean price gain = -0.08% and 4 of the 10 beat the sector mean yearly price gain. Their mean yield = 3.44% - and they sold at an average price/earnings ratio of 20.14. Their mean LTM dividend growth = -0.74% and they had an average CAGR projection of 4.72.

The Predictive Power of subsector on Valuations: There is a huge difference in the type of products or services that this universe produces. Could that difference account for differences in performance and valuation?

The following stocks were in the Distribution sub-sector: ABC , CAH , MCK . Their YTD mean price gain = 5.41% and 2 of the 3 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [1.48%]. Their mean yield = 1.17% and they had an average price/earnings ratio = 17.84. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 17.63% and they had an average CAGR projection of 11.00.

The following stocks were in the Medical devices sub-sector: BAX , BCR , BDX , MDT , STJ , SYK , ZBH . Their YTD mean price gain = 0.19% and 3 of the 7 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [1.48%]. Their mean yield = 1.64% and they had an average price/earnings ratio = 19.37. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 9.18% and they had an average CAGR projection of 7.11.

The following stocks were in the Pharmaceutical sub-sector: ABBV , AMGN , AZN , BAYRY , BMY , GSK , JNJ , LLY , MRK , NVO , NVS , PFE , RHHBY , SNY , TEVA , ZTS . Their YTD mean price gain = 1.61% and 7 of the 16 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [1.48%]. Their mean yield = 2.88% and they had an average price/earnings ratio = 18.99. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 2.55% and they had an average CAGR projection of 5.90.

The following stocks were in the Diagnostic sub-sector: A , DGX , TMO . Their YTD mean price gain = -5.41% and 0 of the 3 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [1.48%]. Their mean yield = 1.31% and they had an average price/earnings ratio = 17.20. Their mean LTM dividend growth = 7.03% and they had an average CAGR projection of 7.33.

Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 9-11

Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. ABC, BDX, CAH, MCK, MDT and PRGO began fiscal 2015 at least one quarter earlier than calendar 2015. Several stocks sell at valuations based on their drug pipelines - and short-term growth in EPS fails to capture a growth picture which is expected to come in 2016 and beyond. BMY is a good example. 2017 EPS projection along with the 2016 projections for GSK and NVO are from NASDAQ. 2017 data was last updated on 5-11-15. The rest of the projections are from Yahoo Finance and updated 9-12-15.


  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 15 EPS Range
Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 13-14 14-15 15-16 2014 2015 2016 High Low Range

A 295 312 288 304 170 197 220 5.56% -44.08% 15.88% 11.83 21.15 18.25 171 167 2.35%
ABBV 0 0 314 332 425 502 578 5.73% 28.01% 18.12% 17.88 13.96 11.82 433 414 4.47%
ABC 251 276 314 397 497 561 636 26.43% 25.19% 12.88% 26.28 20.99 18.60 505 485 4.02%
ABT 0 174 201 228 217 242 288 13.43% -4.82% 11.52% 19.04 20.00 17.94 220 213 3.23%
AMGN 533 651 760 870 976 1073 1214 14.47% 12.18% 9.94% 17.61 15.70 14.28 990 923 6.86%
AZN 733 641 506 428 426 406 389 -15.42% -0.47% -4.69% 15.56 15.63 16.40 427 415 2.82%
BAX 234 246 254 266 132 142 169 4.72% -50.38% 7.58% 13.54 27.29 25.37 162 109 40.15%
BAYRY 0 688 745 799 785 871 na 7.25% -1.75% 10.96% 17.01 17.31 15.60 806 802 0.51%
BCR 640 657 578 840 908 1004 1101 45.33% 8.10% 10.57% 22.95 21.23 19.20 911 897 1.54%
BDX 533 537 581 625 711 841 950 7.57% 13.76% 18.28% 21.76 19.13 16.17 712 702 1.41%
BMY 228 199 182 185 184 224 304 1.65% -0.54% 21.74% 32.01 32.18 26.44 186 166 10.87%
CAH 267 321 373 384 500 576 576 2.95% 30.21% 15.20% 22.14 17.00 14.76 453 435 3.60%
DGX 285 392 400 410 476 511 535 2.50% 16.10% 7.35% 16.00 13.79 12.84 488 430 12.18%
GILD 181 171 201 809 1166 1167 na 302.49% 44.13% 0.09% 13.55 9.40 9.39 1262 1006 21.96%
GSK 325 353 373 296 230 276 307 -20.64% -22.30% 20.00% 13.60 17.50 14.59 238 237 0.43%
JNJ 500 510 552 597 617 640 679 8.15% 3.35% 3.73% 15.57 15.06 14.52 624 607 2.76%

  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 15 EPS Range
Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 13-14 14-15 15-16 2014 2015 2016 High Low Range

LLY 441 339 415 278 328 358 394 -33.01% 17.99% 9.15% 29.42 24.94 22.85 325 311 4.27%
MCK 486 638 633 835 1274 1454 1669 31.91% 52.57% 14.13% 23.67 15.51 13.59 1275 1240 2.75%
MDT 337 346 375 382 437 482 490 1.87% 14.40% 10.30% 18.30 16.00 14.50 448 435 2.97%
MRK 377 382 349 349 351 381 396 0.00% 0.57% 8.55% 14.93 14.84 13.67 347 330 4.84%
NVO 102 142 167 162 199 229 262 -2.99% 22.84% 15.08% 35.15 28.62 24.87 197 177 10.05%
NVS 378 389 501 523 514 544 617 4.39% -1.72% 5.84% 18.46 18.78 17.75 520 515 0.97%
PFE 231 219 222 226 206 235 252 1.80% -8.85% 14.08% 14.59 16.00 14.03 210 200 4.85%
PRGO 401 499 561 639 775 889 986 13.90% 21.28% 14.71% 28.12 23.18 20.21 780 728 6.71%
RHHBY 140 162 156 156 182 197 na 0.00% 16.67% 8.24% 21.55 18.47 17.07 194 186 4.40%
SNY 348 319 340 345 318 325 352 1.47% -7.83% 2.20% 14.56 15.80 15.46 318 313 1.57%
STJ 328 239 376 398 398 433 471 5.85% 0.00% 8.79% 17.54 17.54 16.12 398 391 1.76%
SYK 372 407 423 473 511 561 597 11.82% 8.03% 9.78% 21.07 19.50 17.76 515 497 3.52%
TEVA 497 535 501 507 537 570 526 1.20% 5.92% 6.15% 12.56 11.85 11.17 540 504 6.70%
TMO 416 494 542 696 738 823 891 28.41% 6.03% 11.52% 17.66 16.65 14.93 752 730 2.98%
ZBH 480 530 575 606 671 780 698 5.39% 10.73% 16.24% 16.53 14.93 12.85 682 630 7.75%
ZTS 0 108 142 153 166 190 232 7.75% 8.50% 14.46% 29.41 27.11 23.68 168 161 4.22%

Sector Average           15.37% 6.99% 10.89% 19.68 18.66 16.77     9.28

The Importance of Consensus CAGR Projections The following companies had CAGR projections over 8.0 - or the better rated companies - at the beginning of the Q1-15: A , ABBV , ABC , ABT , AMGN , BAYRY , BCR , BMY , CAH , DGX , GILD , MCK , NVO , NVS , PRGO , STJ , SYK , TMO , ZBH , ZTS . Their mean price gain for the year is 2.96%. Their mean total return for the year is 4.04% - and 10 of the 20 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had consensus CAGR projections at or under 8.0 at the beginning of Q1-15: AZN , BAX , BDX , GSK , JNJ , LLY , MDT , MRK , PFE , RHHBY , SNY , TEVA . Their mean price gain for the year is -0.99%. Their mean total return for the year is 1.45% - and 4 of the 12 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

The Importance of Factoids' CAGR Projections The following companies had Factoids' CAGR projections over 8.0 - or the better rated companies - at the beginning of the year: ABC , ABT , AMGN , BCR , BDX , BMY , CAH , DGX , GILD , MCK , NVO , PRGO , STJ , TMO . Their mean price gain for the year is 6.01%. Their mean total return for the year is 7% - and 14 of the 14 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had Factoids' CAGR projections at or under 8.0 - or the lesser rated companies - at the beginning of the year: A , ABBV , AZN , BAX , BAYRY , GSK , JNJ , LLY , MDT , MRK , NVS , PFE , RHHBY , SNY , SYK , TEVA , ZBH . Their mean price gain for the year is -2.44%. Their mean total return for the year is -0.3% - and 6 of the 17 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

The Importance of Intra-Year EPS Projections - excluding non-domestic companies The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that increased over 3% since the beginning of the year: ABC , AMGN , BDX , CAH , DGX , GILD , MCK , MDT , PRGO , ZBH . Their mean price gain for the year is 1.63%. Their mean total return for the year is 2.51% - and 4 of the 10 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean RRR is 9.88%.
The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that increased less than 3% but did not decrease since the beginning of the year: AZN , BMY , LLY . Their mean price gain for the year is 4.51%. Their mean total return for the year is 6.85% - and 1 of the 3 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean RRR is 8.83%.
The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that decreased - but decreased less than 5% since the beginning of the year: , A , ABBV , ABT , BCR , MRK , SYK , TMO . Their mean price gain for the year is -0.04%. Their mean total return for the year is 1.55% - and 3 of the 10 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean RRR is 9.5%.
The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that fell over 5% since the beginning of the year: BAX , PFE , STJ . Their mean price gain for the year is 1.21%. Their mean total return for the year is 3.03% - and 2 of the 3 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean RRR is 9.17%. I could be two years away from having enough EPS accuracy data to produce meaningful RRRs.

The Importance of Changes in Target Prices The following companies had target price increased over 10% since the beginning of the year: ABC , ABT , BAYRY , BCR , BDX , BMY , CAH , DGX , LLY , MCK , NVO , NVS , PFE , PRGO , STJ , SYK , TEVA . Their mean price gain for the year is 6.47%. Their mean total return for the year is 7.77% - and 11 of the 17 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean RRR is 9.69%.
The following companies had target price increased less than 10% or more than 2% since the beginning of the year: A , ABBV , AMGN , GILD , MDT , SNY , TMO , ZBH . Their mean price gain for the year is -2.03%. Their mean total return for the year is -0.7% - and 2 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean RRR is 9.69%.
The following companies had target price increased under 2% since the beginning of the year: , AZN , BAX , GSK , JNJ , MRK , RHHBY . Their mean price gain for the year is -4.8%. Their mean total return for the year is -2.86% - and 2 of the 14 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their mean RRR is 9.34%.

The Importance of year-over-year EPS Projection Growth The following companies had 2015 beginning of the year EPS projections that were at least 8% higher than the 2014 actual EPS at the beginning of the year: ABBV , ABC , BCR , BDX , CAH , GILD , LLY , MCK , NVO , NVS , PRGO , RHHBY , SYK , TMO , ZTS . Their mean price gain for the year is 6.59%. Their mean total return for the year is 7.69% - and 10 of the 15 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
The following companies had 2015 EPS projections that were less than 8 percent higher than the 2014 actual EPS at the beginning of the year: , A , ABT , AMGN , AZN , BAX , BAYRY , BMY , DGX , GSK , JNJ , MDT , MRK , PFE , SNY , STJ , TEVA , ZBH . Their mean price gain for the year is -3.03%. Their mean total return for the year is -1.01% - and 4 of the 17 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

Disclosure: I am/we are long ABC, ABT, AMGN, GILD, NVO, STJ, SYK.