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Apartment REITs Stat Update For 01/15/16

I hold these truths to be self evident. That all companies are not created equal. That they are endowed by their creators and managers with assets and business models that result in noticeable and significant variations in earnings visibility. "Superior earnings visibility is good" - and that positive attribute results in such companies selling at lower (and thus, on the surface, less attractive) "yield + dividend CAGRs". Equity REITs strongly tend to have superior earnings visibility. Superior investors have an age and temperament appropriate weighting in companies with higher earnings visibility. If you want to keep your head while those about you are losing theirs - have a portfolio that leads to that result.

. . . . and that is why I invest in REITs. Real estate owning Thomas Jefferson told me to, as did Gordon Gekko, Richard Kipling - and the rules of conservatively 'investing with metric awareness'.

Apartment Update for 01-15-16

Yields are calculated on the Q4-15 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The LTM or Last Twelve Month dividend change is since Q4-14. The last 3 years numbers is the annualized dividend change since Q4-12. On 6-22-15 HME agreed to be purchased by Lone Star Funds for $75.23/share.


    Share Price 16 FFO Est Q4-15 Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM Last 3yr
Company and ticker 1-01 01-15 1-01 01-15 Yield FFO15 FFO16 Price Pr+Div FFO Target Div Div

Apartment Investment and Management (NYSE:AIV) 40.03 37.81 2.37 2.38 3.17 54.05 50.42 -5.55 -5.55 0.42 0.31 15.38 16.67
Avalonbay Communities Inc. (NYSE:AVB) 184.13 175.70 8.24 8.26 2.85 62.34 60.53 -4.58 -3.90 0.24 0.73 7.76 9.62
Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) 76.76 72.24 4.85 4.86 3.88 61.81 57.61 -5.89 -4.98 0.21 -0.71 6.06 8.33
Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) 81.59 78.58 3.24 3.25 2.81 63.87 68.00 -3.69 -3.01 0.31 0.80 10.50 21.23
Essex Property Trust Inc. (NYSE:ESS) 239.41 230.15 10.89 10.89 2.50 59.50 52.89 -3.87 -3.27 0.00 0.27 10.77 10.30
Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE:MAA) 90.81 90.35 5.81 5.82 3.41 56.41 52.92 -0.51 -0.51 0.17 2.16 5.48 5.56
Post Properties Inc. (NYSE:PPS) 59.16 56.10 3.16 3.16 3.14 59.26 55.70 -5.17 -4.43 0.00 0.10 10.00 25.33
UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) 37.57 35.78 1.79 1.79 3.10 66.35 61.90 -4.76 -4.76 0.00 0.19 6.54 8.64

Apartment Average         3.11 57.50   -4.25 -3.80 0.17 0.48 9.06
Student Housing
American Campus Communities, Inc. (NYSE:ACC) 41.34 39.55 2.49 2.49 4.05 68.09 64.26 -4.33 -4.33 0.00 -0.77 5.26 6.17
Education Realty Trust, Inc. (EDR) 37.88 36.23 1.95 1.90 4.09 80.87 77.89 -4.36 -4.36 -2.56 -1.05 2.78 7.78

Student Housing Average               -4.34 -4.34 -1.28      

Sector Average         3.30 60.21   -4.27 -3.91 -0.12 0.20 8.05

The cap weighted Dow Jones REIT ETF RWR has a price change of -5.18% year to date - with dividends its total return is -5.18%.
The cap weighted Vanguard ETF VNQ has a price change of -5.22% year to date - with dividends its total return is -5.22%.
The Cohen & Steers 'Realty Majors' ETF ICF has a price change of -4.31% year to date - with dividends its total return is -4.31%.

Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 01-15


  FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 16 FFO Range
Co. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 14-15 15-16 16-17 2015 2016 2017 High Low Range

AIV 204 207 222 238 254 7.25% 7.21% 6.72% 17.03 15.89 14.89 245 230 6.76%
AVB 505 725 802 826 886 10.62% 2.99% 7.26% 21.91 21.27 19.83 841 795 5.74%
CPT 411 429 453 486 511 5.59% 7.28% 5.14% 15.95 14.86 14.14 493 477 3.53%
EQR 235 315 346 325 344 9.84% -6.07% 5.85% 22.71 24.18 22.84 335 314 6.07%
ESS 759 789 968 1089 1172 22.69% 12.50% 7.62% 23.78 21.13 19.64 1120 1061 6.10%
MAA 435 499 546 582 623 9.42% 6.59% 7.04% 16.55 15.52 14.50 595 572 4.21%
PPS 301 244 297 316 337 21.72% 6.40% 6.65% 18.89 17.75 16.65 322 310 4.04%
UDR 144 156 167 179 190 7.05% 7.19% 6.15% 21.43 19.99 18.83 182 175 4.19%

Average         11.77 5.51 6.55 19.78 18.83 17.66  
Student Housing
ACC 222 238 235 249 272 -1.26% 5.96% 9.24% 16.83 15.88 14.54 253 240 5.53%
EDR 165 186 183 190 213 -1.61% 3.83% 12.11% 19.80 19.07 17.01 199 192 3.83%

Sector Average       8.30 4.90 6.71 17.71 16.87 17.29  

Disclosure: I am/we are long AVB, UDR.