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Tesoro Logistics LP (TLLP) Reports Q4-15

|Includes: Andeavor Logistics LP (ANDX)

The Q4-15 earnings release numbers (which lack balance sheet info on debt):

Tesoro Logistics LP metrics

  Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q2-2015 Q1-2015 Q4-2014 Q3-2014 Q2-2014 Q1-2014 Q4-2013 Q3-2013 Q2-2013 Q1-2013
Memo Numbers
Revenues 292 282 275 263 190 150 133 127 101 97 60 52
Costs 188 170 166 155 153 90 85 67 80 84 41 27
EBITDA 155 158 155 168 94 80 70 75 55 50 32 31
Important Numbers
Total DCF dollars 104 116 108 113 47 51.5 49.6 66 39 34.5 25.0 23.0
GP's DCF dollars 22 20 17 14 14 13.5 8.0 6.8 5 3.5 2.0 1.5
Net DCF dollars 82 96 91 99 33 38 41.6 59.2 34 31 23 215
Non-cash Adjustments 3 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 3 2 1
Proceeds from asset sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Adjusted Net DCF 79 90 91 99 33 34 41.6 49.2 34 31 23 21.5
Units 91.300 86.700 80.810 80.281 74.420 56.022 47.012 39.284 34.858 31.829 30.863 28.929
Net DCF/unit $0.8981 $1.1073 $1.1335 $1.2332 $0.4434 $0.6783 $0.8849 $1.5070 $0.9753 $0.9739 $0.7452 $0.7432
Adjusted Net DCF/unit $0.8653 $1.0381 $1.1335 $1.2332 $0.4434 $0.6069 $0.8849 $1.2524 $0.9753 $0.9739 $0.7452 $0.7432
Upcoming Distrib. $0.7800 $0.7500 $0.7225 $0.6950 $0.6675 $0.6425 $0.6150 $0.5900 $0.5650 $0.5450 $0.5100 $0.4900
Calculated Coverage 1.11 1.48 1.54 1.77 0.66 0.94 1.44 2.13 1.73 1.79 1.46 1.52
Reported Coverage 1.07x 1.34x 1.33x   0.71x 0.80x 1.20x          

Q2-15 DCF was 89 and pro forma DCF was 108 to include QEPM. Q1-14 DCF was 66 and pro forma DCF was 56.3 to subtract gain on asset sale

Reported coverage takes the total DCF and divides that number by total distributions and IDRs paid
Because the adjusted net DCF is divided by average shares in quarter X and reported coverage uses units at the time of distribution in quarter X+1 - they should not match up.

Broker1 DCF/unit x $0.94 $0.96 $0.95 $0.57 $0.71 $0.70 $0.84        
Broker2 DCF/unit x $1.10 $1.05 $1.21 $0.43 $0.82 $0.78 $1.11        
Broker3 DCF/unit x $1.11 $1.12 $1.23 $0.41 $0.64 $0.76 $1.08        

LTM EBITDA 636 575 497 412 319 280 250 212        
Short Term Debt x 0 0 0 0 0            
Total Debt x 2,569 2,586 2,520 2,544 1.276            
Total Debt/EBITDA x 4.67x 5.20x 6.12x 7.97x 4.56x            

Interest Expense 38 37 38 37 30 28.220 17.000 18.000 15.000 12.284    
Interest Coverage 4.08x 4.27x 4.08x 4.54x 3.13x 2.86x 4.12x 4.17x 3.67x 4.07x    

I want you to note the DCF/unit calculations from the three brokerages. The numbers are all over the map. Thus your perception of the DCF coverage and DCF trends is totally dependent on the brokerage you use. Should things be that way? My answer is no - or specifically - "Hell no!". This unit holder of TLLP does not appreciate being left in the dark when it comes to the TLLP earnings release. At the same time, the lack of metric transparency in the TLLP numbers is not atypical. We are getting the same kind of reporting from many other MLPs.

I know that my numbers are not matching with the brokerage numbers. I want to have my numbers validated by being closely in alignment to the brokerage numbers. But when the brokerage number 'x' is not in alignment with other brokerage number 'y' - should I be concerned that my numbers are not in alignment with a mess?

Disclosure: I am/we are long TLLP.