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UDR, Inc. (UDR) Reports Q4-15 And Provides 2016 Guidance + Sector Stats

|Includes: UDR, Inc. (UDR)

Why do REITs sell at relatively low 'yield + CAGRs'? Because their earnings visibility is high. REITs can still get in trouble on leverage. REITs can still get in trouble building new properties when demand is falling. But when their earnings overwhelmingly come from rents (which is not always true), then you can count on their earnings.

Let's start with the earnings projections for UDR from Yahoo:

Earnings Est Current Qtr.
Dec 15
Next Qtr.
Mar 16
Current Year
Dec 15
Next Year
Dec 16
Avg. Estimate 0.42 0.43 1.67 1.79
No. of Analysts 23.00 21.00 22.00 24.00
Low Estimate 0.40 0.41 1.65 1.75
High Estimate 0.44 0.45 1.69 1.82

And here is what UDR reported:

"2015 FFO, FFO as Adjusted and AFFO per share were $1.66 (+6% year-over-year), $1.67 (+10%) and $1.51 (+11%), respectively".

2016 FFO as Adjusted per share         $1.75 to $1.81

During 2015, UDR Increased the declared dividend per share to $1.11 (+7% year-over-year). For 2016, UDR "has declared a 2016 annualized dividend per share of $1.18, a 6% increase over 2015."

Also during 2015, UDR "issued ~$211 million of common equity, net of fees, at or above Street consensus NAV." (Selling new shares above NAV is good.) And UDR "received a senior unsecured credit upgrade from S&P Rating Services to BBB+". (Credit upgrades are good news for the equity holders, too.)

Here are the current sector stats:

Yields are calculated on the Q4-15 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The LTM or Last Twelve Month dividend change is since Q4-14. The last 3 years numbers is the annualized dividend change since Q4-12. On 6-22-15 HME agreed to be purchased by Lone Star Funds for $75.23/share. On 1-25-16 AIV raised its Q1-16 dividend 10% - or 18% year over year - to $0.33/share. UDR will raise its Q2-16 dividend to $0.295/share.


    Share Price 16 FFO Est Q4-15 Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM Last 3yr
Company and ticker 1-01 02-02 1-01 02-02 Yield FFO15 FFO16 Price Pr+Div FFO Target Div Div

Apartment Investment and Management (NYSE:AIV) 40.03 39.14 2.37 2.38 3.07 54.05 50.42 -2.22 -2.22 0.42 -0.31 15.38 16.67
Avalonbay Communities Inc. (NYSE:AVB) 184.13 168.42 8.24 8.26 2.97 62.34 60.53 -8.53 -7.85 0.24 0.44 7.76 9.62
Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) 76.76 75.59 4.85 4.84 3.70 61.81 57.85 -1.52 -0.61 -0.21 -1.79 6.06 8.33
Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) 81.59 75.60 3.24 3.25 2.92 63.87 68.00 -7.34 -6.66 0.31 -0.10 10.50 21.23
Essex Property Trust Inc. (NYSE:ESS) 239.41 208.32 10.89 10.89 2.76 59.44 52.89 -12.99 -12.38 0.00 0.07 10.77 10.30
Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE:MAA) 90.81 92.41 5.81 5.83 3.33 56.41 52.83 1.76 2.61 0.34 2.36 5.48 5.56
Post Properties Inc. (NYSE:PPS) 59.16 57.04 3.16 3.16 3.09 59.26 55.70 -3.58 -2.84 0.00 -0.21 10.00 25.33
UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) 37.57 35.48 1.79 1.79 3.12 66.35 61.90 -5.56 -4.83 0.00 0.37 6.54 8.64

Apartment Average         3.12 57.52   -5.00 -4.35 0.14 0.10 9.06
Student Housing
American Campus Communities, Inc. (NYSE:ACC) 41.34 43.17 2.49 2.49 3.71 68.09 64.26 4.43 4.43 0.00 -2.30 5.26 6.17
Education Realty Trust, Inc. (EDR) 37.88 38.91 1.95 1.83 3.80 80.87 80.87 2.72 2.72 -6.15 1.58 2.78 7.78

Student Housing Average               3.57 3.57 -3.08      

Sector Average         3.25 60.53   -3.28 -2.76 -0.50 0.01 8.05

The cap weighted Dow Jones REIT ETF RWR has a price change of -4.86% year to date - with dividends its total return is -4.86%.
The cap weighted Vanguard ETF VNQ has a price change of -4.15% year to date - with dividends its total return is -4.15%.
The Cohen & Steers 'Realty Majors' ETF ICF has a price change of -4.35% year to date - with dividends its total return is -4.35%.

Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 02-02-16


  FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 16 FFO Range
Co. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 14-15 15-16 16-17 2015 2016 2017 High Low Range

AIV 204 207 222 238 254 7.25% 7.21% 6.72% 17.63 16.45 15.41 245 230 6.76%
AVB 505 725 802 826 886 10.62% 2.99% 7.26% 21.00 20.39 19.01 841 795 5.74%
CPT 411 429 453 484 510 5.59% 6.84% 5.37% 16.69 15.62 14.82 493 477 3.53%
EQR 235 315 346 325 344 9.84% -6.07% 5.85% 21.85 23.26 21.98 335 314 6.07%
ESS 759 789 969 1089 1172 22.81% 12.38% 7.62% 21.50 19.13 17.77 1120 1061 6.09%
MAA 435 499 546 583 623 9.42% 6.78% 6.86% 16.92 15.85 14.83 595 572 4.21%
PPS 301 244 297 316 337 21.72% 6.40% 6.65% 19.21 18.05 16.93 322 310 4.04%
UDR 144 156 167 179 190 7.05% 7.19% 6.15% 21.25 19.82 18.67 182 175 4.19%

Average         11.79 5.46 6.56 19.51 18.57 17.43  
Student Housing
ACC 222 238 235 249 272 -1.26% 5.96% 9.24% 18.37 17.34 15.87 253 240 5.53%
EDR 165 186 183 183 213 -1.61% 0.00% 16.39% 21.26 21.26 18.27 199 192 3.83%

Sector Average       8.31 4.52 7.10 17.79 17.02 17.36  

Disclosure: I am/we are long AVB, UDR.