Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Transportation Stock Update 02/12/16

Why have any weighting in transportation? You can find some very good dividend growth in this sector. Many stocks here have beaten the S&P 500 over the last five years. It appears to me to be a safe bet that we will need to move more stuff as time goes by. You can buy right now at relatively good P/E ratios.

Transportation 02-12-16

The Q1-16 dividend is used for yield calculations. All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years - with the one exception of FDX - which starts in June. The change in the price, price + dividend, 2016 EPS projection and target is the change since market's close of 12-31-15. The last three years average dividend growth is calculated by dividing the total dividend growth from Q1-13 to Q1-16 divided by three.


    12-31-15 Current Dividend Current Div/EPS Percent Change Div Growth
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield Ratio Price Pr+Div 16 EPS Target LTM 3 yrs

ArcBest Corporation ARCB 21.39 19.17 0.08 1.67% 18% -10.38 -10.38 -31.36 -28.50 33.33 55.56
CH Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW 62.02 70.16 0.43 2.45% 49% 13.12 13.12 0.53 1.92 13.16 7.62
Canadian National Railway CNI 55.88 55.22 0.26 1.90% 24% -1.18 -1.18 -0.85 -4.16 5.00 8.63
Canadian Pacific Railway CP 127.60 124.01 0.25 0.80% 10% -2.81 -2.62 -3.30 -9.69 -11.79 -9.26
CSX Corp. CSX 25.95 24.19 0.18 2.98% 36% -6.78 -6.78 -9.80 -12.97 12.50 9.52
Expeditors International EXPD 45.10 45.70 0.18 1.58% 30% 1.33 1.33 -0.80 -3.60 12.50 6.67
FedEx Corporation FDX 148.99 128.60 0.25 0.78% 11% -13.69 -13.52 0.09 -2.64 25.00 26.19
Forward Air Corp. FWRD 43.01 37.51 0.12 1.28% 21% -12.79 -12.79 -3.07 -3.00 0.00 6.67
GATX Corp. GMT 42.55 41.66 0.40 3.84% 30% -2.09 -2.09 0.95 -19.05 5.26 9.68
JB Hunt Transport JBHT 73.36 74.43 0.22 1.18% 24% 1.46 1.46 -1.23 -5.43 4.76 15.56
Kansas City Southern KSU 74.67 79.40 0.33 1.66% 29% 6.33 6.33 -4.20 -10.28 0.00 17.83
Knight Transportation Inc. KNX 24.23 24.84 0.06 0.97% 16% 2.52 2.52 -7.43 -6.22 0.00 0.00
Landstar System, Inc. LSTR 58.65 58.89 0.08 0.54% 9% 0.41 0.41 -6.11 -7.05 14.29 11.11
Matson, Inc. MATX 42.63 39.87 0.18 1.81% 26% -6.47 -6.47 -0.70 0.00 5.88 6.67
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC 84.59 72.56 0.59 3.25% 46% -14.22 -14.22 -6.81 -9.43 0.00 6.00
Ryder System. Inc. R 56.83 54.14 0.41 3.03% 27% -4.73 -4.73 -9.57 -18.95 10.81 10.75
Trinity Industries Inc. TRN 24.02 21.44 0.11 2.05% 9% -10.74 -10.28 -1.07 -2.19 10.00 33.33
Union Pacific Corp. UNP 78.20 77.20 0.55 2.85% 40% -1.28 -1.28 -10.17 -14.12 0.00 19.81
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS 96.23 97.25 0.78 3.21% 57% 1.06 1.06 0.00 -2.46 6.85 8.60
Westinghouse Air Brake WAB 71.12 65.35 0.08 0.49% 8% -8.11 -8.11 -2.24 -6.08 33.33 73.33

Average         1.92% 26% -3.45 -3.41 -4.86 -8.20 9.04

The ^DJT or Dow Jones Transportation Average has changed -6.13% year to date.
The IYT or iShares Transportation Average - with unreinvested dividends - has changed -6.23% year to date.
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT has changed -8.46% year to date.
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT - with unreinvested dividends - has changed -8.46% year to date.
With the 10 Treasury at 1.73% and the sector average yield on Q1 Dividends at 1.92% - the spread is 52 basis points.
The number for the first dividend change is for the last twelve months and not year to date. The second change is a 3 year average.

Price/Earnings Ratios 02-12
All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years - with the one exception of FDX - which starts in June.
Stocks with large spreads between the high and low projections have varied each of the three quarters that metric has been tracked


  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS 16 EPS Range
Co. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 2014 2015 2016 High Low Range

ARCB 0.10 0.61 1.82 1.78 1.62 510.00 198.36 -2.20 -8.99 10.53 10.77 11.83 1.91 1.17 41.57%
CHRW 3.67 2.65 3.05 3.51 3.78 -27.79 15.09 15.08 7.69 23.00 19.99 18.56 3.93 3.65 7.98%
CNI 3.06 3.06 3.76 4.44 4.68 0.00 22.88 18.09 5.41 14.69 12.44 11.80 4.88 4.50 8.56%
CP 2.79 6.42 8.50 10.10 11.14 130.11 32.40 18.82 10.30 14.59 12.28 11.13 11.46 10.60 8.51%
CSX 1.79 1.83 1.92 2.00 1.84 2.23 4.92 4.17 -8.00 12.60 12.10 13.15 1.95 1.73 11.00%
EXPD 1.57 1.68 1.92 2.39 2.49 7.01 14.29 24.48 4.18 23.80 19.12 18.35 2.87 2.39 20.08%
FDX 6.41 6.23 6.75 8.95 10.58 -2.81 8.35 32.59 18.21 19.05 14.37 12.16 10.90 10.28 6.93%
FWRD 1.50 1.77 1.96 2.25 2.53 18.00 10.73 14.80 12.44 19.14 16.67 14.83 3.10 2.25 37.78%
GMT 2.88 3.50 4.48 5.37 5.33 21.53 28.00 19.87 -0.74 9.30 7.76 7.82 5.40 5.25 2.79%
JBHT 2.59 2.87 3.16 3.66 4.01 10.81 10.10 15.82 9.56 23.55 20.34 18.56 4.15 3.85 8.20%
KSU 3.43 3.98 4.82 4.49 4.56 16.03 21.11 -6.85 1.56 16.47 17.68 17.41 4.75 4.15 13.36%
KNX 0.80 0.86 1.25 1.47 1.37 7.50 45.35 17.60 -6.80 19.87 16.90 18.13 1.55 1.30 17.01%
LSTR 2.77 2.42 3.07 3.37 3.38 -12.64 26.86 9.77 0.30 19.18 17.47 17.42 3.85 3.18 19.88%
MATX 1.22 1.39 1.63 2.81 2.82 13.93 17.27 72.39 0.36 24.46 14.19 14.14 2.95 2.63 11.39%
NSC 5.37 5.85 6.39 5.10 5.34 8.94 9.23 -20.19 4.71 11.36 14.23 13.59 5.65 5.00 12.75%
R 3.91 4.88 5.58 6.13 6.14 24.81 14.34 9.86 0.16 9.70 8.83 8.82 6.22 5.99 3.75%
TRN 1.58 2.34 4.19 4.87 3.70 48.10 79.06 16.23 -24.02 5.12 4.40 5.79 4.30 3.15 23.61%
UNP 4.13 4.71 5.75 5.49 5.39 14.04 22.08 -4.52 -1.82 13.43 14.06 14.32 5.60 5.00 10.93%
UPS 0.83 4.57 4.75 5.43 5.77 450.60 3.94 14.32 6.26 20.47 17.91 16.85 5.97 5.65 5.89%
WAB 2.59 3.01 3.62 4.10 4.37 16.22 20.27 13.26 6.59 18.05 15.94 14.95 4.63 4.10 12.93%

Average         62.83 30.23 14.17 1.87 16.42 14.37 13.98      

I have been well served going with inertia. Those stocks that have out performed have tended to be the stocks that will out perform. Thus the spreadsheet that follows is the one I have used in this and other sectors to partially assist in my stock selection.

Price Changes and Total Returns Since the Beginning of 2012, 2011 and 2010
    02-12-15 12-31-11 Change 12-31-10 Change 12-31-09 Change Div Growth EPS Growth
Company Price Price Price Pr+Dist Price Price Pr+Dist Price Price Pr+Dist since Q4-09 since 2009
 
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $19.17 $19.27 -1% 3% $27.42 -30% -27% $29.43 -35% -32% -47% 1680%
CH Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW $70.16 $69.78 1% 9% $80.18 -12% -4% $58.73 19% 33% 52% 65%
Canadian National Railway CNI $55.22 $29.16 89% 101% $33.23 66% 79% $29.16 89% 105% 100% 19%
Canadian Pacific Railway CP $124.01 $129.16 -4% -0% $64.81 91% 101% $54.00 130% 143% 12% 189%
CSX Corp. CSX $24.19 $21.06 15% 27% $21.53 12% 25% $16.16 50% 69% 200% 108%
Expeditors International EXPD $45.70 $40.96 12% 18% $54.60 -16% -11% $34.77 31% 41% 89% 115%
FedEx Corporation FDX $128.60 $83.51 54% 57% $93.01 38% 42% $83.45 54% 59% 127% 2787%
Forward Air Corp. FWRD $37.51 $32.05 17% 22% $28.38 32% 39% $25.03 50% 59% 71% 562%
GATX Corp. GMT $41.66 $43.66 -5% 8% $35.28 18% 36% $28.75 45% 71% 36% 216%
JB Hunt Transport JBHT $74.43 $45.07 65% 71% $40.81 82% 91% $32.27 131% 142% 91% 249%
Kansas City Southern KSU $79.40 $68.01 17% 23% $47.86 66% 74% $33.29 139% 151% Infinity% 636%
Knight Transportation Inc. KNX $24.84 $15.64 59% 65% $19.00 31% 37% $19.29 29% 36% 20% 145%
Landstar System, Inc. LSTR $58.89 $47.92 23% 25% $40.94 44% 47% $38.43 53% 57% 78% 146%
Matson, Inc. MATX $39.87 $20.41 95% 108% $20.02 99% 115% $17.11 133% 155% 19% 251%
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC $72.56 $72.86 -0% 11% $62.82 16% 32% $52.42 38% 61% 74% 85%
Ryder System. Inc. R $54.14 $53.14 2% 12% $52.64 3% 15% $42.23 28% 46% 64% 252%
Trinity Industries Inc. TRN $21.44 $15.03 43% 51% $13.30 61% 72% $8.72 146% 164% 175% 4770%
Union Pacific Corp. UNP $77.20 $52.97 46% 59% $46.33 67% 83% $31.95 142% 168% 307% 194%
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $97.25 $73.19 33% 47% $73.19 33% 50% $57.37 70% 94% 62% 154%
Westinghouse Air Brake WAB $65.35 $69.95 -7% -6% $52.89 24% 25% $40.84 60% 62% 1500% 242%

Average     28% 36%   36% 46%   70% 84% 96%

S&P 500 or SPY   $186.63 $125.50 49% 60% $125.75 48% 62% $111.14 68% 85% 66%

Disclosure: I am/we are long NSC, UNP.

Additional disclosure: I could be purchasing shares in FDX, JBH, KSU and UPS in the next 30 days (if my largest fear is lack of dividend growth in my portfolio). I could be purchasing shares of T, VOD and VZ in the next 30 days (if my largest fear is lack of dividend income in the here and now). I am uncertain as to which fear to alleviate. Right now - the answer is "all of the above".