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Large And Mid-Cap Consumer Staples Stats For 2/26/16

Thanks to the discovery in 2015 that I can find earnings projections for more forward dates at Nasdaq -- I could find 2017 projections on 12-31-15 --- and thus can also track 2016 changes in the 2017 projection. This is the first sector where I am testing and displaying that tracking of this metric.

Why should this matter? Because there are times when the current year projection is being changed by one time events. And there are times when changes in the current year projection are not being matched by changes in the forward year projections.

So how does this test look - what are my first impressions? Let's take this one or two companies at a time. Note that both SAFM and TSN have had 11% bump-ups in their 2016 projection. But TSN is up more than SAFM. Well . . . the TSN increase in its 2017 projection is much higher than the SAFM increase. There is a very rough correlation between the size of the projection change and the size of the YTD price change. But FLO has twice the price fall as the 2016 EPS projection fall. Well . . the 2017 projection fall is even greater than the 2016 projection fall. KO has a larger 2016 EPS projection fall than PEP - but PEP is under performing KO. Well . . PEP has a 2017 EPS fall that is in line with KO -- while the yield on PEP (being lower) had much less room for accepting that disappointment without a price reaction. DPB has the second largest share price increase in the sector - why? Well . . . the increase in CPB's 2017 EPS projection is the second highest. The TSN share price change is the highest. The TSN 2017 EPS projection change is the highest. LANC is down at lot - why? Well . . we finally have an example where the displayed numbers fail to offer an explanation. LANC (like most in this sector) reported their 2015 numbers recently. The 2015 EPS was well below projections. I expect that the 2016 price slide is a reaction to the recent reporting of the 2015 numbers. Summation - my first impression is that I really like the addition of the 2017 projection changes in the spreadsheet.

Large and Mid-Cap Consumer Staples 02/26/16

The Q1-16 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2016 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and target is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q1-15. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q1-11. LANC paid a special dividend of $5.00 in Dec of 2015 - special dividends are not included in my stats. PEP has announced a Q2 dividend increase to $0.7525 from $0.7025 - an increase of 7.1%. HRL had a stock split on 2-10-16 - and the split is not yet in the data.

 


    12-31-15 02-26 Div Current Div/ Div/ -------- Percent Change --------
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield EPS16 EPS17 Price Pr+Div EPS16 EPS17 Target Div 1yr Div 5yr

Archer-Daniels (NYSE:ADM) 36.68 34.79 0.300 3.45 47% 41% -5.15 -5.15 -16.56 -5.43 -16.21 7.14 17.50
Campbell (NYSE:CPB) 52.55 61.98 0.312 2.01 42% 40% 17.94 18.54 4.63 6.14 15.57 0.00 1.52
Coke (NYSE:KO) 42.96 43.14 0.350 3.25 72% 68% 0.42 0.42 -6.28 -6.79 2.14 6.06 9.79
ConAgra (NYSE:CAG) 42.16 42.08 0.250 2.38 44% 41% -0.19 -0.19 0.00 2.08 0.41 0.00 1.74
Colgate (NYSE:CL) 66.62 66.28 0.380 2.29 55% 50% -0.51 0.06 -7.41 -6.52 -1.05 5.56 8.68
Clorox (NYSE:CLX) 126.83 127.82 0.770 2.41 63% 59% 0.78 1.39 1.03 0.38 0.34 4.05 8.00
DrP/Snapple (DPS) 93.20 92.18 0.530 2.30 49% 45% -1.09 -0.53 -0.69 -0.64 1.87 10.42 13.13
Flowers (NYSE:FLO) 21.49 17.27 0.145 3.36 59% 54% -19.64 -19.64 -9.17 -12.90 -27.60 9.43 12.62
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) 57.66 59.00 0.440 2.98 62% 58% 2.32 3.09 -0.35 -0.97 1.09 7.32 11.43
Hershey (NYSE:HSY) 89.27 90.62 0.583 2.57 54% 50% 1.51 1.51 -1.14 -3.33 -1.92 8.97 13.80
Hormel (NYSE:HRL) 79.08 85.94 0.290 1.35 37% 35% 8.67 9.04 6.85 4.46 13.80 16.00 25.49
Ingredion (NYSE:INGR) 95.84 101.94 0.450 1.77 28% 26% 6.36 6.83 0.31 1.45 4.39 7.14 44.29
Kellogg (NYSE:K) 72.27 73.45 0.500 2.72 54% 50% 1.63 1.63 0.27 0.76 7.89 2.04 4.69
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) 127.30 131.30 0.920 2.80 60% 56% 3.14 3.86 -1.13 -3.78 3.40 4.55 6.29
Lancaster (NASDAQ:LANC) 115.46 101.26 0.500 1.98 49% 46% -12.30 -12.30 -2.62 -2.46 -2.06 8.70 10.30
McCormick (NYSE:MKC) 85.56 93.53 0.430 1.84 47% 42% 9.32 9.82 -1.34 -3.57 5.33 7.50 10.71
Pepsi (NASDAQ:PEP) 99.92 98.36 0.703 2.86 60% 56% -1.56 -0.86 -3.51 -6.65 -0.47 7.25 9.27
Procter&Gamble (NYSE:PG) 79.41 81.10 0.663 3.27 73% 66% 2.13 2.96 -3.20 -4.72 -0.17 3.00 7.48
SandersonFarms (NASDAQ:SAFM) 77.52 89.98 0.220 0.98 15% 13% 16.07 16.36 11.42 2.88 7.96 0.00 5.88
JM Smucker (NYSE:SJM) 123.34 127.67 0.670 2.10 46% 42% 3.51 3.51 0.52 -1.09 3.06 4.69 10.45
Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) 53.33 65.17 0.150 0.92 15% 14% 22.20 22.20 11.11 8.33 24.92 50.00 55.00

Average         2.36 49% 45% 2.65 2.98 -0.82   2.03 -1.90 13.72

The SPY or S&P 500 EFT is -4.31% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is -4.31% year to date.
The KXI or Consumer Staples ETF is -0.98% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is -0.98%.
The RHS or Guggenheim S&P 500 Eq Wt Cons Staple ETF is 1.56% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is 1.56%.
With the 10 Treasury at 1.74% and the sector average yield on the Q1 dividend at 2.36% - the spread is 62 basis points.
* The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

Price/Earnings Ratios 02-26
Some of the 2017 Projections are from NASDAQ.


  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS Current Fiscal Year Year
Co. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 2015 2016 2017 High Low Range End

ADM 2.33 3.20 2.60 2.57 2.96 37.34 -18.75 -1.15 15.18 13.38 13.54 11.75 3.22 2.80 16.15% Dec
CPB 2.64 2.53 2.46 2.94 3.11 -4.17 -2.77 19.51 5.78 25.20 21.08 19.93 2.90 2.77 5.28% July
KO 2.08 2.04 2.00 1.94 2.06 -1.92 -1.96 -3.00 6.19 21.57 22.24 20.94 2.15 1.91 12.00% Dec
CAG 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.28 2.45 0.46 0.46 4.59 7.46 19.30 18.46 17.18 2.41 1.95 21.10% May
CL 2.84 2.93 2.81 2.75 3.01 3.17 -4.10 -2.14 9.45 23.59 24.10 22.02 3.10 2.66 15.66% Dec
CLX 4.31 4.26 4.57 4.92 5.22 -1.16 7.28 7.66 6.10 27.97 25.98 24.49 5.03 4.81 4.81% Dec
DPS 3.20 3.65 4.02 4.30 4.67 14.06 10.14 6.97 8.60 22.93 21.44 19.74 4.50 4.20 7.46% Dec
FLO 0.91 0.88 0.92 0.99 1.08 -3.30 4.55 7.61 9.09 18.77 17.44 15.99 1.15 0.98 18.48% Dec
GIS 2.69 2.82 2.86 2.85 3.06 4.83 1.42 -0.35 7.37 20.63 20.70 19.28 2.91 2.83 2.80% May
HSY 3.72 3.98 4.12 4.35 4.64 6.99 3.52 5.58 6.67 22.00 20.83 19.53 4.52 4.25 6.55% Dec
HRL 1.97 2.23 2.64 3.12 3.28 13.20 18.39 18.18 5.13 32.55 27.54 26.20 2.95 2.85 3.79% Dec
INGR 5.05 5.20 5.88 6.41 7.00 2.97 13.08 9.01 9.20 17.34 15.90 14.56 6.50 6.20 5.10% Oct
K 3.77 3.81 3.53 3.70 3.99 1.06 -7.35 4.82 7.84 20.81 19.85 18.41 3.75 3.61 3.97% Dec
KMB 5.77 5.51 5.76 6.11 6.62 -4.51 4.54 6.08 8.35 22.80 21.49 19.83 6.29 6.00 5.03% Dec
LANC 3.98 3.69 3.74 4.09 4.37 -7.29 1.36 9.36 6.85 27.07 24.76 23.17 4.17 4.00 4.55% June
MKC 3.13 3.37 3.48 3.69 4.05 7.67 3.26 6.03 9.76 26.88 25.35 23.09 3.78 3.64 4.02% Nov
PEP 4.37 4.63 4.57 4.68 5.05 5.95 -1.30 2.41 7.91 21.52 21.02 19.48 4.92 4.65 5.91% Dec
PG 4.05 4.09 3.76 3.63 4.04 0.99 -8.07 -3.46 11.29 21.57 22.34 20.07 3.77 3.55 5.85% June
SAFM 5.68 10.80 9.52 5.95 6.79 90.14 -11.85 -37.50 14.12 9.45 15.12 13.25 5.92 4.93 10.40% Oct
SJM 5.37 5.64 5.38 5.82 6.36 5.03 -4.61 8.18 9.28 23.73 21.94 20.07 5.86 5.70 2.97% Apr
TSN 2.22 2.94 3.15 4.00 4.29 32.43 7.14 26.98 7.25 20.69 16.29 15.19 3.84 3.37 14.92% Sep

Average           0.68 4.54 8.52 21.89 20.83 19.25      

Disclosure: I am/we are long CL, GIS, HRL, HSY, INGR, PEP, PG, SJM.